Grains Report 08/17/2023

DJ World Grain Production Set to Be Second Largest on Record in 2023-24
By Yusuf Khan
Global production of wheat, corn and other grains is set to rise to the second-highest level on record, according to the International Grains Council.
Total production for 2023-24 is forecast at 2.294 billion metric tons of grains, the IGC said in its monthly report on Thursday. This represents a rise from 2.263 billion tons the prior year, though it is just shy of the record set in 2021-22 of 2.295 billion tons.
The forecast was lowered from a previous outlook made in July when 2.297 billion tons had been expected for the year. The revision was due to lower than expected barley and oat production, the IGC said.
In terms of individual grains, wheat production is forecast at 784 million tons, corn at 1.221 billion tons, soybeans at 398 million tons and rice at 523 million tons.
The IGC also forecast a 2% increase in grain consumption to 2.307 billion tons led by a boost in feed demand, which declined the prior year. Carry-over stocks are forecast at 584 million tons.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 17
For the week ended Aug 10, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 359.5 0.0 6769.8 8813.1 3605.4 18.2
hrw 85.4 0.0 1277.4 2634.1 710.1 0.0
srw 56.6 0.0 1687.1 1610.8 678.1 18.0
hrs 219.5 0.0 2437.4 2500.2 1467.0 0.2
white -30.3 0.0 1247.9 1940.6 654.5 0.0
durum 28.4 0.0 120.1 127.4 95.8 0.0
corn 233.5 704.7 40548.7 60949.5 2754.4 6678.2
soybeans 93.6 1407.5 53246.1 59558.2 2036.0 10593.2
soymeal 126.4 220.5 12664.8 11754.8 1815.9 1794.9
soyoil 0.7 0.0 128.0 695.3 20.2 6.0
upland cotton 186.3 0.0 5126.5 7367.7 4795.2 291.2
pima cotton 3.3 0.0 48.5 99.6 44.5 1.5
sorghum 41.1 60.0 2835.5 6976.4 718.7 1009.2
barley 0.0 0.0 16.1 15.5 16.1 0.0
rice 24.7 0.0 443.4 314.6 420.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday after trading lower early in the day and trends remain down on the daily charts as the war between Russia and Ukraine heated up with Russia once again bombing grains facilities in Ukraine. Demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 559 September. Support is at 592, 588, and 582 September, with resistance at 622, 626, and 643 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 721 and 690 September. Support is at 730, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 786 and 761 September. Support is at 785, 778, and 772 September, and resistance is at 811, 818, and 836 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading, and trends remain down on the daily charts as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. USDA showed that crop progress was a little ahead of the five year average and that crop condition deteriorated slightly from last week and remains a little behind the quality of last year. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1553, 1536, and 1529 September and resistance is at 1578, 1590, and 1600 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday. Weather forecasts remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 461 and 442 September. Support is at 462, 459, and 456 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 432, 424, and 413 September, and resistance is at 452, 458, and 464 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher. Weather forecasts call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for the next few weeks after some rain in the Midwest Monday. Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1320, 1303, and 1289 September, and resistance is at 1353, 1370, and 1376 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00 and 387.00 September. Support is at 403.00, 400.00, and 395.00 September, and resistance is at 412.00, 423.00, and 424.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6700 and 7050 September. Support is at 6550, 6440, and 6310 September, with resistance at 6780, 6910, and 7000 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as the private export data released a couple of days ago was strong and on strength in Chicago Soybean Oil. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 758.00, 754.00, and 742.00 November, with resistance at 788.00, 793.00, and 800.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4020 and 4160 November. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3650 November, with resistance at 3900, 3960, and 4050 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
67 Sep 112 Sep
55 Sep
NQ Nov

September
67 Sep
112 Sep
55 Sep NQ Nov

October
68 Dec
130 Dec 85 Dec 118 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 872.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 872.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 880.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 880.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 887.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 897.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 815.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 815.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,920.00 +70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 248.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.652)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 278,029 lots, or 14.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,088 5,216 5,077 5,201 5,071 5,137 66 109,609 63,749
Nov-23 5,080 5,198 5,054 5,190 5,047 5,126 79 135,946 108,305
Jan-24 5,002 5,088 4,991 5,085 4,994 5,036 42 30,431 43,812
Mar-24 4,952 5,015 4,932 5,006 4,937 4,974 37 797 6,333
May-24 4,950 5,026 4,942 5,021 4,950 4,976 26 1,015 2,842
Jul-24 4,935 4,988 4,914 4,978 4,929 4,947 18 231 318
Corn
Turnover: 1,052,506 lots, or 27.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,726 2,743 2,718 2,742 2,743 2,727 -16 45,282 119,675
Nov-23 2,634 2,646 2,610 2,626 2,666 2,625 -41 673,917 700,741
Jan-24 2,595 2,601 2,571 2,587 2,614 2,584 -30 212,863 391,236
Mar-24 2,579 2,582 2,559 2,573 2,594 2,568 -26 100,732 121,135
May-24 2,600 2,601 2,575 2,587 2,614 2,585 -29 17,727 54,941
Jul-24 2,588 2,590 2,567 2,581 2,603 2,578 -25 1,985 5,575
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,431,078 lots, or 9.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,575 4,702 4,567 4,689 4,544 4,635 91 461,635 360,580
Nov-23 4,345 4,473 4,345 4,446 4,324 4,416 92 244,014 291,398
Dec-23 4,075 4,180 4,075 4,149 4,064 4,129 65 30,131 63,338
Jan-24 3,902 3,977 3,902 3,962 3,887 3,940 53 1,401,852 1,693,166
Mar-24 3,646 3,706 3,642 3,691 3,634 3,673 39 21,789 71,307
May-24 3,431 3,475 3,425 3,460 3,416 3,452 36 191,698 506,776
Jul-24 3,384 3,427 3,380 3,412 3,370 3,404 34 71,565 402,321
Aug-24 3,419 3,461 3,371 3,441 3,416 3,437 21 8,394 18,504
Palm Oil
Turnover: 818,139 lots, or 6.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,694 7,694 7,566 7,648 7,596 7,628 32 84,969 78,621
Oct-23 7,630 7,666 7,568 7,654 7,596 7,616 20 22,248 60,015
Nov-23 7,630 7,680 7,582 7,668 7,604 7,630 26 11,088 54,119
Dec-23 7,628 7,648 7,554 7,642 7,572 7,602 30 7,564 35,238
Jan-24 7,568 7,606 7,504 7,594 7,532 7,558 26 653,797 424,221
Feb-24 7,572 7,586 7,494 7,582 7,520 7,542 22 8,607 19,073
Mar-24 7,552 7,562 7,478 7,558 7,506 7,520 14 5,859 19,074
Apr-24 7,510 7,512 7,434 7,512 7,470 7,480 10 2,303 3,710
May-24 7,416 7,440 7,352 7,430 7,402 7,402 0 21,465 43,966
Jun-24 7,388 7,396 7,328 7,386 7,370 7,362 -8 125 761
Jul-24 7,360 7,366 7,302 7,340 7,344 7,326 -18 114 745
Aug-24 – – – 7,326 7,344 7,326 -18 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 948,354 lots, or 76.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,392 8,400 8,324 8,394 8,352 8,364 12 121,894 144,658
Nov-23 8,358 8,380 8,280 8,378 8,314 8,324 10 38,683 98,889
Dec-23 8,216 8,258 8,170 8,256 8,206 8,206 0 5,424 41,119
Jan-24 8,044 8,080 7,974 8,076 8,010 8,026 16 740,586 526,930
Mar-24 7,772 7,790 7,710 7,786 7,754 7,750 -4 2,157 34,642
May-24 7,650 7,650 7,562 7,628 7,614 7,598 -16 25,353 60,546
Jul-24 7,542 7,554 7,484 7,542 7,538 7,516 -22 8,537 107,282
Aug-24 7,514 7,552 7,478 7,524 7,546 7,510 -36 5,720 8,648
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322