Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday despite deteriorating crop conditions reported by USDA as ideas are around that showers over the weekend were very beneficial for crop development and condition. The heat is still extreme and has yet to moderate. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue and Chinese economic data continues to show weakness. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worries developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.88 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 347 bales, from 380 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 85.00, 83.80, and 83.30 December, with resistance of 88.40, 88.80 and 90.00 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday, and the trends are turning up on the daily charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but might have factored in the production losses into the current prices. Futures are also being supported in forecasts for an above average hurricane season that could bring a storm to damage the trees once again. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 161 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 161 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 319.00and 332.00 September. Support is at 302.00, 2915.00, and 291.00 September, with resistance at 311.00, 319.00, and 325.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday as offers from Brazil and other countries in Latin America could be increasing. The Brazil harvest moving quickly along and offers should be increasing. Vietnam is not offering at all into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. Ideas are that roaster demand is relaxing with more Coffee seen in the market now. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell. Central America is featuring Coffee offered with very high differentials. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.513 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 162.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 147.00 September. Support is at 147.00, 145.00, and 142.00 September, and resistance is at 155.00, 158.00 and 160.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2600, 2570, and 2520 September, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2760 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on reports of increased offers from Brazil but the market remains in a trading range. Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market. India still has problems with current and future production potential. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Some areas have remained dry while others have seen too much rain. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2370, 2340, and 2300 October and resistance is at 2440, 2460, and 2490 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 683.00, 683,00, and 675.00 October, with resistance at 704.00, 705.00, and 716.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on ideas of tight supplies. Trends are turning up again on the daily charts in both markets. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.276 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3300, 3270, and 3240 September, with resistance at 3380, 3420, and 3440 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2770 September. Support is at 2620, 2580, and 2540 September, with resistance at 2730, 2760, and 2790 September.