Grains Report 08/16/2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday and trends remain down on the daily charts as the war between Russia and Ukraine calmed again and as demand for US Wheat needs to improve. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 559 September. Support is at 588, 582, and 576 September, with resistance at 626, 643, and 664 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 721 and 690 September. Support is at 733, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 786 and 761 September. Support is at 778, 772, and 766 September, and resistance is at 811, 818, and 836 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday, and trends remain down on the daily charts as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. USDA showed that crop progress was a little ahead of the five year average and that crop condition deteriorated slightly from last week and remains a little behind the quality of last year. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1530 September. Support is at 1553, 1536, and 1529 September and resistance is at 15978, 1590, and 1600 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 16
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 21.42 13.45 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 20.97 14.00 0.00
Brokens 12.96 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday after USDA showed more improvement than expected in the weekly crop condition reports seen on Monday. Weather forecasts that remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks after some rains on Monday. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way, but ideas are that much of the yield has been already made. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 461 and 442 September. Support is at 465, 462, and 398 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are mixed t up with no objectives. Support is at 413, 400, and 398 September, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 452 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on better than expected crop condition ratings reported by USDA on Monday night. Weather forecasts call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for the next few weeks after some rain in the Midwest Monday. Soybean Meal was lower and Soybean Oil was higher. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1303, 1289, and 1271 September, and resistance is at 1353, 1370, and 1376 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 399.00 and 387.00 September. Support is at 400.00, 395.00, and 3950.00 September, and resistance is at 412.00, 423.00, and 424.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 6700 and 7050 September. Support is at 6440, 6310, and 6210 September, with resistance at 6680, 6910, and 7000 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as the private export data released a cou-le of days ago was strong. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 758.00, 754.00, and 742.00 November, with resistance at 788.00, 793.00, and 800.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4020 and 4160 November. Support is at 3700, 3680, and 3650 November, with resistance at 3900, 3960, and 4050 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
60 Sep 110 Sep
60 Sep
135 Nov

September
60 Sep
110 Sep
60 Sep 135 Nov

October
58 Dec
125 Dec 80 Dec 120 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 857.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 887.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 865.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 865.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 895.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 810.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 815.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,850.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 247.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.628)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 220,107 lots, or 11.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,085 5,095 5,043 5,084 5,035 5,071 36 116,199 72,941
Nov-23 5,037 5,072 5,029 5,070 5,035 5,047 12 79,504 94,826
Jan-24 4,985 5,017 4,975 4,997 4,986 4,994 8 23,449 47,059
Mar-24 4,954 4,962 4,925 4,931 4,936 4,937 1 325 6,485
May-24 4,962 4,970 4,937 4,953 4,946 4,950 4 505 3,009
Jul-24 4,934 4,941 4,910 4,918 4,918 4,929 11 125 374
Corn
Turnover: 1,017,707 lots, or 27.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,751 2,759 2,725 2,726 2,751 2,743 -8 77,025 135,800
Nov-23 2,701 2,708 2,635 2,637 2,700 2,666 -34 684,084 691,024
Jan-24 2,636 2,644 2,595 2,595 2,634 2,614 -20 165,000 369,952
Mar-24 2,613 2,620 2,574 2,577 2,611 2,594 -17 76,767 102,971
May-24 2,639 2,643 2,595 2,597 2,634 2,614 -20 13,185 49,659
Jul-24 2,628 2,631 2,585 2,585 2,622 2,603 -19 1,646 4,752
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,079,855 lots, or 82.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,541 4,575 4,521 4,569 4,533 4,544 11 323,213 442,257
Nov-23 4,300 4,352 4,287 4,345 4,295 4,324 29 188,332 279,691
Dec-23 4,058 4,089 4,041 4,078 4,075 4,064 -11 26,561 64,364
Jan-24 3,898 3,910 3,865 3,900 3,906 3,887 -19 1,212,313 1,635,027
Mar-24 3,645 3,656 3,607 3,648 3,636 3,634 -2 24,238 72,513
May-24 3,412 3,439 3,394 3,428 3,424 3,416 -8 182,632 500,937
Jul-24 3,396 3,404 3,354 3,381 3,407 3,370 -37 103,981 398,681
Aug-24 3,451 3,451 3,396 3,415 3,442 3,416 -26 18,585 16,550
Palm Oil
Turnover: 872,660 lots, or 65.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,588 7,636 7,548 7,598 7,464 7,596 132 113,636 94,890
Oct-23 7,580 7,626 7,548 7,592 7,488 7,596 108 27,913 60,919
Nov-23 7,594 7,636 7,556 7,606 7,480 7,604 124 14,701 53,979
Dec-23 7,562 7,608 7,528 7,576 7,428 7,572 144 7,577 35,945
Jan-24 7,504 7,574 7,484 7,526 7,388 7,532 144 676,732 412,448
Feb-24 7,506 7,562 7,476 7,520 7,374 7,520 146 7,729 19,327
Mar-24 7,490 7,550 7,466 7,506 7,362 7,506 144 4,786 19,612
Apr-24 7,460 7,510 7,432 7,462 7,334 7,470 136 2,029 3,715
May-24 7,388 7,452 7,360 7,390 7,272 7,402 130 16,771 43,278
Jun-24 7,358 7,418 7,354 7,362 7,270 7,370 100 431 756
Jul-24 7,334 7,386 7,320 7,338 7,212 7,344 132 351 689
Aug-24 7,358 7,360 7,304 7,304 7,248 7,344 96 4 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 985,274 lots, or 79.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,368 8,402 8,288 8,352 8,302 8,352 50 238,132 158,510
Nov-23 8,350 8,372 8,256 8,302 8,270 8,314 44 42,859 100,269
Dec-23 8,146 8,256 8,144 8,180 8,122 8,206 84 6,764 41,717
Jan-24 8,020 8,068 7,948 8,002 7,918 8,010 92 656,751 513,722
Mar-24 7,688 7,800 7,688 7,746 7,636 7,754 118 4,719 34,944
May-24 7,584 7,674 7,568 7,596 7,510 7,614 104 21,270 61,420
Jul-24 7,516 7,584 7,482 7,506 7,420 7,538 118 10,651 105,309
Aug-24 7,494 7,596 7,492 7,508 7,412 7,546 134 4,128 6,194
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322