Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Business Inventories, Retail Sales MoM & YoY, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, and Retails Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM at 7:30 A.M., Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., NAHB Housing Market Index and Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM at 9:00 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech at 10:00 A.M., NOPA Crush at 11:00 A.M., Net Long-term TIC Flows, Overall Net Capital Flows, and Foreign Bond Investment at 3:00 P.M., and API Energy Stocks at 3 :30 P.M.
On the Corn Front High Pressure Ridge migrates to Midwest, and soil moisture loss occurs second half of August. The Central US forecast is consistent with prior runs and the EU, GFS, and Canadian models are in solid agreement. The second half of August will be defined by an abnormal migration in high pressure Ridging aloft from the Southern Plains to the Central Plains and Midwest. The upper air pattern supports heat-extreme heat in some regions – and near lack of rainfall into August 26th-27yh. Moderate showers will dot the Great Lakes and East Midwest over the next 24 hours, with accumulation of 1 inch or more confines to Southern Wisconsin and Michigan. Little to no rain is advertised elsewhere into August 24, with 11-15 day guidance isolating better rain chances to the far Northern Plains and Southern Canada. PRO FARMER Crop Tour is just around the corner and most importantly is that temperatures Sunday through Wednesday reach into the low 100’s across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska and into the upper 90’s in Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. Rain and cooler temperatures are needed in September to maximize ear/pod weights. Fine-tuning yield stays challenging and awaits actual combine data. I still believe this market is below fair value. In the overnight electronic session the December corn is currently trading at 484 ¼ which is 3 ½ cents lower. The trading range has been 485 ½ to 481 ¾.
On The Ethanol Front ACE calls on Biden to intervene on E15 waiver rule. The American Coalition for Ethanol yesterday called on President Joe Biden to ensure the EPA promptly finalizes its proposed legislation to eliminate the 1-pound per square inch (psi) Reis vapor pressure (RVP) waiver for gasoline containing 10% ethanol (E10) in eight states. In a letter to President Biden, ACE CEO Brian Jennings outlined how “what should have been a straightforward undertaking by the EPA to approve a petition submitted by eight governors on April 28,2022 allowing retailers in their states to sell E15 year-round has unfortunately turned into a sixteen-month odyssey. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
Have An Excellent Trading Day!