Grains Report 08/15/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug 16, 2023 53 Aug 11, 2023
SOYBEAN August Aug 16, 2023 41 Aug 10, 2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 14
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Aug 14, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 10, 2023
— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/10/2023 08/03/2023 08/11/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 399 0 399 920
CORN 398,269 387,973 539,336 35,610,321 53,080,796
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 399 0 499 3,095 5,588
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 116,298 36,125 60,732 2,455,303 7,358,374
SOYBEANS 297,797 284,377 768,328 51,099,009 55,320,994
SUNFLOWER 384 384 240 5,391 2,596
WHEAT 183,289 292,964 390,291 3,216,980 3,899,933
Total 996,436 1,002,222 1,759,426 92,390,498 119,669,201
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 13-Aug 8-Aug 2022 Avg
Cotton Squaring 96 92 98 97
Cotton Setting Bolls 72 63 78 77
Cotton Bolls Opening 13 8 14 14
Corn Silking 96 93 93 96
Crorn Dough 65 47 60 63
Dcorn Dented 18 8 15 18
Soybeans Blooming 94 90 92 92
Soybeans Setting Pods 78 66 72 75
Sorghum Headed 71 59 65 73
Sorghum Coloring 30 26 29 31
Rice Headed 87 74 82 83
Rice Harvested 15 9 10 10
Peanuts Pegging 95 92 96 95
Oats Harvested 60 49 56 64
Barley Harvested 28 16 28 33
Winter Wheat Harvested 92 87 89 92
Spring Wheat Harvested 24 11 15 28

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 19 24 21 30 6
Cotton Last Week 13 21 25 35 6
Cotton Last Year 16 19 31 29 5

Corn This Week 4 9 28 48 11
Corn Last Week 4 10 29 47 10
Corn Last Year 6 10 27 45 12

Soybeans This Week 3 9 29 48 11
Soybeans Last Week 4 10 32 45 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 9 30 48 10

Sorghum This Week 5 12 29 45 9
Sorghum Last Week 4 10 29 45 12
Sorghum Last Year 15 23 35 25 2

Spring Wheat This Week 4 16 38 39 3
Spring Wheat Last Week 4 16 39 39 2
Spring Wheat Last Year 0 6 30 58 6

Rice This Week 1 5 27 51 16
Rice Last Week 1 3 25 54 17
Rice Last Year 0 3 22 60 15

Peanuts This Week 1 4 26 62 7
Peanuts Last Week 0 4 22 66 8
Peaanuts Last Year 1 4 25 60 10

Barley This Week 1 8 37 48 6
Barley Last Week 2 8 40 46 4
Barley Last Year 0 9 33 51 7

Pasture and Range This Week 15 17 28 33 7
Pasture and Range Last Week 14 18 30 31 7
Pasture and Range Last Year 27 25 27 18 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts as the war between Russia and Ukraine calmed again and as some rain was reported in the Great Plains. Demand has been poor for US Wheat and should remain bad as Russia production looks strong and exports from Russia have not abated. It is certain that there will be no grain deal soon for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea and any export from the Danube will be difficult if not impossible. Ukraine will still be able to ship via land through the EU. It is unlikely that any ship owner or ship insurer will take the chance on any passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, and maybe not for Russia, either. The world access to Wheat from at least one and perhaps both countries is a lot more restricted. Weather forecasts call for drier weather for the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies and some areas will be real hot. Canada is now suffering potential crop losses due to dry weather.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 597 and 559 September. Support is at 605, 688, and 682 September, with resistance at 626, 643, and 664 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 721 and 690 September. Support is at 733, 727, and 720 September, with resistance at 761, 779, and 794 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 786 and 761 September. Support is at 801, 793, and 8778 September, and resistance is at 918, 836, and 843 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday, and trends turned down on the daily charts as the US harvest expands and good yields are reported. Yields are called average to well above average in the southern US and average to above average so far in Arkansas. The quality has been a little uneven with some crops affected by the extreme heat in southern areas that has hurt field yields in some areas. India will not allow Rice exports except for Basmati for now because of too much rain on some the crops and not enough for other areas. Northern areas are too wet and southern areas are too dry. India is the largest exporter of Rice in the world, so it was big news and one that implies that a sharp increase in world price is now possible.
Overnight News: The Delta should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1560 and 1530 September. Support is at 1557, 1553, and 1536 September and resistance is at 1590, 1600, and 1620 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher again yesterday after trading lower for much of the day. Weather forecasts that remain mostly dry and warm for the Midwest for the next couple of weeks after some rains today. The crops are reported to be in mostly good condition now but need rain constantly to maintain the condition due to the lack of soil moisture from three months of drought that ended at the end of June. A return to hot and dry weather now could impact yields in a bad way. Cooler temperatures after this week will help, but the Corn still needs rain and the lack of rain is more important. Russia has bombed the port of Odessa this week and also attacked facilities along the Danube River in an effort to keep Ukraine from exporting. Ukraine can still export over land via the EU but this entails additional costs. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been weak due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 461 and 442 September. Support is at 468, 465, and 462 September, and resistance is at 480, 486, and 495 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 413, 400, and 398 September, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 452 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on weather forecasts that call for very warm and dry conditions for the Midwest for the next few weeks after some rain in the Midwest today. Soybean Meal was higher and Soybean Oil was higher. Most longer-range maps indicate the potential for dry weather. Temperatures are expected to be above normal. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet but is becoming possible in some areas. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low, and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1326, 1303, and 1271 September, and resistance is at 1370, 1376, and 1401 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 410.00, 400.00, and 395.00 September, and resistance is at 423.00, 424.00, and 435.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 6310, 6210, and 6140 September, with resistance at 6560, 6680, and 6910 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today after a moderate range day as the private export data was strong. The market remains in a trading range but held support. Ideas are that export demand has improved as the private sources reported at 10.8% increase in exports for the month to date yesterday. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and on dry Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is generally forecast for the Prairies.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 746.00 and 717.00 November. Support is at 754.00, 742.00, and 729.00 November, with resistance at 775.00, 793.00, and 800.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3680, 3650, and 3540 November, with resistance at 3820, 3900, and 3960 November.

DJ Malaysia Aug. 1-15 Palm-Oil Exports Rose 24.2%, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the August 1-15 period are estimated to have risen 24.2% on month to 633,585 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
August 1-15 July 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 170,315 132,865
RBD Palm Oil 50,565 19,685
RBD Palm Stearin 58,907 36,610
Crude Palm Oil 219,910 184,999
Total* 633,585 510,249
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August
60 Sep 110 Sep
60 Sep
135 Nov

September
60 Sep
110 Sep
60 Sep 135 Nov

October
58 Dec
125 Dec 80 Dec 120 Nov

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday,supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 855.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 855.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 862.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 882.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 862.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 862.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 890.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 802.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 805.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 3,750.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 247.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.629)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 249,174 lots, or 12.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 5,035 5,070 4,998 5,065 5,064 5,035 -29 141,168 85,304
Nov-23 5,047 5,067 5,000 5,052 5,037 5,035 -2 76,933 89,755
Jan-24 4,992 5,012 4,955 4,999 4,999 4,986 -13 29,266 47,517
Mar-24 4,936 4,957 4,909 4,945 4,947 4,936 -11 977 6,522
May-24 4,946 4,971 4,918 4,956 4,953 4,946 -7 720 2,803
Jul-24 4,920 4,943 4,892 4,926 4,930 4,918 -12 110 313
Corn
Turnover: 565,007 lots, or 15.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 2,750 2,760 2,746 2,754 2,753 2,751 -2 72,834 166,910
Nov-23 2,701 2,708 2,688 2,705 2,704 2,700 -4 359,416 668,232
Jan-24 2,627 2,642 2,620 2,641 2,632 2,634 2 75,354 348,446
Mar-24 2,606 2,619 2,599 2,617 2,609 2,611 2 45,308 96,311
May-24 2,630 2,642 2,621 2,640 2,631 2,634 3 11,101 45,696
Jul-24 2,619 2,629 2,611 2,628 2,619 2,622 3 994 4,044
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,255,959 lots, or 9.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 4,512 4,563 4,499 4,553 4,477 4,533 56 443,832 491,050
Nov-23 4,265 4,326 4,262 4,316 4,227 4,295 68 134,224 257,554
Dec-23 4,050 4,096 4,048 4,070 4,019 4,075 56 23,235 66,546
Jan-24 3,890 3,929 3,872 3,914 3,841 3,906 65 1,343,261 1,611,722
Mar-24 3,609 3,657 3,608 3,655 3,574 3,636 62 31,767 74,429
May-24 3,415 3,444 3,398 3,429 3,374 3,424 50 184,586 515,333
Jul-24 3,398 3,429 3,385 3,406 3,357 3,407 50 81,371 383,775
Aug-24 3,359 3,460 3,359 3,458 3,357 3,442 85 13,683 8,009
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,125,743 lots, or 83.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 7,352 7,610 7,352 7,588 7,414 7,464 50 206,664 112,123
Oct-23 7,386 7,604 7,378 7,586 7,410 7,488 78 30,243 60,386
Nov-23 7,370 7,618 7,350 7,594 7,378 7,480 102 20,511 53,344
Dec-23 7,320 7,586 7,296 7,562 7,352 7,428 76 9,652 36,412
Jan-24 7,280 7,544 7,234 7,520 7,302 7,388 86 817,217 407,800
Feb-24 7,268 7,530 7,240 7,506 7,320 7,374 54 8,734 19,220
Mar-24 7,272 7,516 7,244 7,490 7,320 7,362 42 5,742 19,618
Apr-24 7,252 7,476 7,212 7,460 7,286 7,334 48 2,906 3,699
May-24 7,196 7,408 7,144 7,390 7,218 7,272 54 23,755 43,686
Jun-24 7,148 7,380 7,116 7,358 7,184 7,270 86 222 518
Jul-24 7,130 7,350 7,104 7,334 7,166 7,212 46 94 389
Aug-24 7,156 7,346 7,156 7,244 7,166 7,248 82 3 1
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,254,224 lots, or 10.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-23 8,218 8,426 8,188 8,360 8,188 8,302 114 515,079 187,063
Nov-23 8,088 8,378 8,088 8,322 8,136 8,270 134 65,519 99,107
Dec-23 8,032 8,240 8,010 8,186 8,032 8,122 90 9,138 42,885
Jan-24 7,766 8,040 7,766 8,006 7,808 7,918 110 604,836 490,275
Mar-24 7,536 7,754 7,526 7,728 7,556 7,636 80 5,983 35,679
May-24 7,402 7,610 7,392 7,594 7,430 7,510 80 30,832 60,622
Jul-24 7,330 7,522 7,322 7,508 7,354 7,420 66 16,034 102,981
Aug-24 7,326 7,494 7,276 7,476 7,354 7,412 58 6,803 3,950
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322