Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday on speculative long liquidation even as very hot and dry weather remains in Texas and the Southwest are spreading into the Delta and Southeast. The heat has been extreme and shows no signs of moderation. The crop condition report showed mixed trends, with bad crops getting worse and good crops holding, but ideas are that the crops will show signs of deterioration soon. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue but hopes for improved Chinese economic data are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worries developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Showers are also forecast for the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 83.19 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 560 bales, from 560 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8700 December. Support is at 85.50, 84.30, and 84.00 December, with resistance of 87.00, 88.20 and 89.40 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday, and made new highs for the move and new contract highs. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but might have factored in the production losses into the current prices. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for products around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. USDA said that 327.84 million pounds of FCOJ were in cold storage, from 341.867 million in May and 520.593 million last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 300.00, 291.00, and 281.00 September, with resistance at 322.00, 328.00, and 334.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and within the weekly trading ranges. The origins are not offering much, even Brazil with its harvest moving quickly along. Vietnam is not offering at all into the world market as domestic cash prices are very high. The Brazil harvest is moving quickly along, but the lower prices have forced Brazil producers to store Coffee instead of selling. Ideas are that roaster demand is improving with more Coffee seen in the market now. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta with no offers from Vietnam in the world market due to very high domestic prices. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell. Central America is featuring Coffee offered with very high differentials. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are little changed today at 0.532 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 and 180.00 September. Support is at 159.00, 157.00, and 155.00 September, and resistance is at 165.00, 168.00 and 170.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2730 and 2860 September. Support is at 2590, 2550, and 2520 September, with resistance at 2700, 2760, and 2800 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in recovery trading after moving lower reports of increased offers from Brazil but the market still feeling short supplies. Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects. More Sugar is becoming available to the world market. India still has problems with current and future production potential. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. Some areas have remained dry while others have seen too much rain. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2360, and 2310 October and resistance is at 2490, 2530, and 2550 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 673.00, 668,00, and 655.00 October, with resistance at 698.00, 706.00, and 708.00 October.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday in correction trading but as ideas of tight supplies continue. Trends are up again on the daily charts in both markets. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain that could also affect the main crop production.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.395 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3570, 3680, and 3770 September. Support is at 3440, 3420, and 3360 September, with resistance at 3630, 3650, and 3680 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2710 September. Support is at 2670, 2620, and 2590 September, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2770 September.