Softs Report 07/24/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week, partly in sympathy with the weather rally seen in the grains markets early in the week and on its own weather rally as very hot and dry weather returned to Texas and the Southwest. The heat has been extreme. A steady Dollar supported Cotton futures by helping with demand ideas of the trade. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue but hopes for improved Chinese economic data are around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. There are also worries developing that the US could be moving into a mild recession after many months of superlative growth. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Showers are also forecast for the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.72 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 4,727 bales, from 4,727 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8700 December. Support is at 83.30, 82.50, and 81.20 December, with resistance of 85.60, 86.00 and 86.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 18, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 220,812
: Positions :
: 33,969 31,867 41,728 56,056 127,466 74,419 8,792 206,171 209,853: 14,641 10,959
: Changes from: July 11, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,170) :
: -729 -3,493 -613 2,956 7,737 1,325 606 2,939 4,237: 231 -1,066
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 14.4 18.9 25.4 57.7 33.7 4.0 93.4 95.0: 6.6 5.0
: Total Traders: 271 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 63 76 44 52 46 16 221 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday, and the trends are still up on the daily charts. It looks like a tropical storm is headed to Florida and there is buying on ideas that the storm could develop into a major hurricane and damage trees. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but might have factored in the production losses into the current prices. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for product around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 161 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 161 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 291.00, 281.00, and 277.00 September, with resistance at 304.00, 310.00, and 316.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 18, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,273 :
: Positions :
: 1,155 6,634 1,322 0 0 4,030 840 80 809 722 2,462 :
: Changes from: July 11, 2023 :
: -45 154 -21 0 0 123 115 -37 -59 0 445 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 54.1 10.8 0.0 0.0 32.8 6.8 0.7 6.6 5.9 20.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 8 10 5 0 0 21 4 . 9 13 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as the market looks for supplies from Brazil and Asia. The origins are not offering much, even Brazil with its harvest moving quickly along. There was news that Rice production in India was affected by too much rain and Coffee could be hit as well. The Brazil harvest is moving quickly along, but the lower prices and a much weaker US Dollar forced Brazil producers to store Coffee instead of selling as they hope for higher prices and a stronger Dollar later in the year. Ideas are that roaster demand is improving with more Coffee and cheaper prices seen in the market now. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take much of the demand. Producers in Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.535 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.78 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 157.00, 155.00, and 151.00 September, and resistance is at 164.00, 168.00 and 170.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2520, 2480, and 2460 September, with resistance at 2630, 2670, and 2760 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 18, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 224,648
: Positions :
: 24,067 40,341 65,791 61,429 90,735 63,649 18,985 214,936 215,852: 9,712 8,796
: Changes from: July 11, 2023 (Change in open interest: -2,797) :
: 367 3,300 -1,741 -1,813 -4,744 -515 364 -3,701 -2,820: 904 23
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.7 18.0 29.3 27.3 40.4 28.3 8.5 95.7 96.1: 4.3 3.9
: Total Traders: 370 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 101 86 110 111 106 42 29 308 285:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/18/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
151,898 75,482 105,462 2,363 6,012 2,590
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.7% 69.4% 1.6% 4.0% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 46 45 5 10 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
39,217 6,813 10,146 2,788 5,396 11,911
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.8% 4.5% 6.7% 1.8% 3.6% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
50 15 21 19 6 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,401 3,568
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 2.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as the market still feels short supplies. Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for the next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. More Sugar is now available to the world market. India still has problems with current and future production potential. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production and the monsoon has been uneven so far in both countries. India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2580 and 2660 October. Support is at 2440, 2400, and 2360 October and resistance is at 2550, 2630, and 2680 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 688.00, 673,00, and 662.00 October, with resistance at 706.00, 708.00, and 715.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 18, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,091,472
: Positions :
: 156,211 66,897 268,833 347,418 638,766 237,998 65,794 1,010,460 1,040,290: 81,012 51,182
: Changes from: July 11, 2023 (Change in open interest: -4,604) :
: 5,637 1,758 -6,943 -7,613 411 2,545 -944 -6,375 -5,718: 1,771 1,115
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.3 6.1 24.6 31.8 58.5 21.8 6.0 92.6 95.3: 7.4 4.7
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 74 37 76 72 70 40 19 217 174:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/18/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
83,149 38,678 59,036 5,663 6,605 1,570
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 46.5% 71.0% 6.8% 7.9% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
121 37 42 7 5 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,497 5,176 4,701 562 1,263 2,526
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
29.5% 6.2% 5.7% 0.7% 1.5% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
36 9 19 6 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,952 2,272
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.0% 2.7%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as ideas of tight supplies continue. The markets are both developing trading ranges now so the lack of Cocoa in the market might be part of the price structure for now. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are lower now with diseases reported in the trees due to too much rain.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.440 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3470, 3520, and 3670 September. Support is at 3360, 3320, and 3260 September, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2510, 2490, and 2440 September, with resistance at 2590, 2620, and 2680 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 18, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 485,826
: Positions :
: 106,257 56,700 169,221 126,432 216,355 69,491 33,408 471,401 475,684: 14,425 10,143
: Changes from: July 11, 2023 (Change in open interest: 15,378) :
: 1,020 -971 2,425 12,432 15,367 -538 -1,226 15,339 15,595: 39 -216
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.9 11.7 34.8 26.0 44.5 14.3 6.9 97.0 97.9: 3.0 2.1
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 66 85 40 41 32 18 219 171:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/18/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
460,130 227,486 278,621 22,952 64,495 39,545
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 49.4% 60.6% 5.0% 14.0% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
167 43 40 14 11 15
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
82,996 4,900 23,184 15,323 4,238 43,882
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.0% 1.1% 5.0% 3.3% 0.9% 9.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 9 20 20 11 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,762 1,265
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.3%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322