Softs Report 07/10/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower after a week of choppy trading on weaker Chinese economic data and a lower US stock market. Reports indicate that more showers that continue to improve crop conditions in Texas and into the Southeast this week. Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue. The weather has improved, but it had been very hot. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Showers are also forecast for the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 75.92 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 8,926 bales, from 8,926 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 171 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.20, 78.30, and 77.60 December, with resistance of 82.10, 82.60 and 83.30 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 216,044
: Positions :
: 32,719 43,131 41,234 54,882 110,406 74,256 9,068 203,091 203,839: 12,953 12,206
: Changes from: June 27, 2023 (Change in open interest: 1,769) :
: 2,258 -6,590 807 -1,526 8,679 -215 -221 1,324 2,675: 446 -906
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 20.0 19.1 25.4 51.1 34.4 4.2 94.0 94.4: 6.0 5.6
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 82 73 44 48 45 17 209 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but seem to have factored in the production losses into the current prices. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 265.00, 260.00, and 254.00 September, with resistance at 277.00, 280.00, and 286.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,600 :
: Positions :
: 1,356 5,668 1,322 0 0 3,589 710 66 595 572 1,783 :
: Changes from: June 27, 2023 :
: 272 -220 34 0 0 -130 73 62 -41 -26 -166 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8 53.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 33.9 6.7 0.6 5.6 5.4 16.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 9 9 5 0 0 18 . . 6 13 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week, with a major rally in London on Friday turning short term trends in that market to up. The Brazil harvest is moving quickly along. Ideas are that roaster demand is improving with more Coffee and cheaper prices seen in the market now. Cooxupe said last week that the harvest is 34% complete, just off the record pace of 36% made several years ago.. There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations and that production is now being harvested and starting to get exported. The Arabica harvest has expanded and offers of Arabica from Brazil are increasing. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take much of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement. Southeast and south Asian producers could see another tough production year this year due to the effects of El Nino, but the weather appears to be good in these areas for now.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 0.545 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 160.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 706 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 156.00, 154.00, and 151.00 September, and resistance is at 164.00, 158.00 and 170.00 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2650 and 2760 September. Support is at 2540, 2480, and 2460 September, with resistance at 2650, 2670, and 2690 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 217,417
: Positions :
: 21,052 31,575 63,178 59,162 96,499 65,652 17,319 209,044 208,572: 8,373 8,845
: Changes from: June 27, 2023 (Change in open interest: 8,550) :
: -3,172 3,413 5,393 5,332 -2,689 -186 1,097 7,367 7,214: 1,183 1,336
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 14.5 29.1 27.2 44.4 30.2 8.0 96.1 95.9: 3.9 4.1
: Total Traders: 361 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 88 111 108 102 44 24 304 276:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/04/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
139,799 64,076 102,395 2,353 5,401 2,467
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.8% 73.2% 1.7% 3.9% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 41 47 5 10 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
47,149 6,523 4,393 2,617 4,580 10,709
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
33.7% 4.7% 3.1% 1.9% 3.3% 7.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
50 16 21 16 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,035 3,331
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 2.4%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on ideas of tight supplies in consumer markets. Reports indicated that Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for their next crop production prospects so relief could be coming soon. The Brazil production is apparently not enough to change the narrative of tight world supplies, but more Sugar is now available to the world market and prices are reacting. India will restrict imports until the first half of next year. The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production, but the monsoon has been good so far so both countries might have increased production next year. In addition, India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2590 and 2640 October. Support is at 2310, 2270, and 2180 October and resistance is at 2300, 2420, and 2470 October. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 665.00 and 694.00 October. Support is at 639.00, 630,00, and 610.00 October, with resistance at 661.00, 672.00, and 675.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,081,007
: Positions :
: 153,314 63,535 268,480 345,995 631,681 235,271 69,672 1,003,060 1,033,368: 77,948 47,639
: Changes from: June 27, 2023 (Change in open interest: -10,648) :
: -24,867 -1,696 19,063 -8,378 -25,216 3,976 -625 -10,206 -8,474: -441 -2,174
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 5.9 24.8 32.0 58.4 21.8 6.4 92.8 95.6: 7.2 4.4
: Total Traders: 239 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 37 74 75 72 39 20 222 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/04/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
89,245 46,869 59,225 6,041 7,744 1,543
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 52.5% 66.4% 6.8% 8.7% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
114 37 41 8 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
19,867 7,282 5,839 656 699 2,606
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.3% 8.2% 6.5% 0.7% 0.8% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 16 22 7 3 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,824 4,307
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.5% 4.8%

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed a little lower last week on ideas that futures were overbought but London was sharply higher as a squeeze is being reported there for July contracts on ideas of tight supplies continue and as July still holds a big premium to the back months. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.539 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 566 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 3270, 3240, and 3180 September, with resistance at 3360, 3410, and 3440 September. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2570, 2500, and 2460 September, with resistance at 2630, 2660, and 2680 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 474,518
: Positions :
: 110,090 60,937 167,184 113,621 201,402 69,323 33,428 460,217 462,951: 14,301 11,568
: Changes from: June 27, 2023 (Change in open interest: 25,663) :
: -2,143 -4,938 22,955 1,428 5,781 3,330 587 25,571 24,386: 92 1,278
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.2 12.8 35.2 23.9 42.4 14.6 7.0 97.0 97.6: 3.0 2.4
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 65 85 40 41 32 20 218 173:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/04/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
446,248 202,918 283,606 22,776 48,628 36,812
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 45.5% 63.6% 5.1% 10.9% 8.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
174 44 43 14 12 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
95,086 3,552 26,182 16,845 4,884 41,003
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
21.3% 0.8% 5.9% 3.8% 1.1% 9.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
57 5 22 21 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,626 1,581
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 0.4%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322