Grains Report 07/06/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul 07, 2023 1 Jun 28, 2023
ROUGH RICE July Jul 07, 2023 20 May 22, 2023
CORN July Jul 07, 2023 68 Jun 21, 2023
OATS July Jul 07, 2023 34 Jun 29, 2023
WHEAT July Jul 07, 2023 189 Jun 29, 2023

DJ U.S. May Grain Exports-Jul 6
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 23 Apr 23 Mar 23 May 22
Barley 786,000 806,868 954,536 896,165
Corn /1 6,092,535,000 5,061,110,000 4,920,765,000 7,188,200,000
Sorghum 310,632,000 318,350,000 388,499,000 873,109,000
Oats 1,459,775 2,087,511 857,756 934,225
Rye 4,444 102,844 9,984 1,384,600
Wheat /1 1,440,609,246 1,517,537,995 1,361,131,603 1,361,020,597
wheat flour /1 13,976,408 14,438,565 15,662,470 19,573,226
Malt 23,240,574 20,531,834 30,337,425 24,817,707
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
May 23 Apr 23 Mar 23 May 22
Barley 36,100 37,059 43,841 41,160
Corn /1 239,850,047 199,245,055 193,719,973 282,984,030
Sorghum 12,228,916 12,532,757 15,294,373 34,372,430
Oats 100,569 143,816 59,094 64,362
Rye 175 4,049 393 54,509
Wheat /1 52,932,785 55,759,404 50,012,512 50,008,433
wheat flour /1 308,127 318,316 345,298 431,516
Malt 51,236,704 45,264,953 66,882,585 54,713,688
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. May Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jul 6
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 23 Apr 23 Mar 23 May 22
soybeans 986,457,588 2,554,281,611 3,135,931,445 2,417,659,607
soyoil 22,940,920 27,498,099 5,807,999 33,802,222
crude 16,538,547 20,269,175 607,345 26,977,958
refined 215,327 106,820 188,702 333,641
other/1 5,984,266 6,935,428 4,832,659 6,211,760
hydrogenated 202,780 186,676 179,293 278,863
cottonseed oil 3,007,858 3,417,538 7,760,682 3,133,382
crude 0 69,298 64,626 468,312
refined 2,539,116 2,844,451 7,021,911 1,497,670
other/1 108,286 92,060 438,865 873,948
hydrogenated 360,456 411,729 235,280 293,452
sunseeds 0 100,550 187,594 1,814
sunseed oil 4,191,056 4,246,080 4,007,798 7,381,155
rapeseed 4,324,224 8,014,825 14,647,201 2,039,078
rapeseed oil 9,728,657 4,639,747 4,043,022 4,662,525
crude 5,455,943 360,357 600,505 1,360,171
refined 4,272,714 4,279,390 3,442,517 3,302,354
linseed meal 78,000 251,888 151,680 333,759
cottonseed meal 5,501,734 5,236,390 7,229,070 7,265,847
soymeal 822,844,754 839,241,981 1,088,157,309 869,552,500
soymeal/flour 243,460,432 273,725,387 235,649,274 149,728,490
soymeal hulls 14,404,000 15,707,000 12,547,000 17,462,000
lard 1,367,973 1,242,339 1,778,477 1,449,933
edible tallow 3,600,906 5,358,156 3,897,914 6,284,598
inedible tallow 3,069,428 12,774,323 4,035,371 13,955,893
ch white grease 19,745 0 12,440 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
May 23 Apr 23 Mar 23 May 22
soybeans 36,245,740 93,852,820 115,224,573 88,832,872
soyoil 50,576,080 60,622,942 12,804,448 74,521,156
crude 36,461,261 44,685,889 1,338,967 59,476,227
refined 474,715 235,498 416,017 735,553
other/1 13,193,050 15,290,004 10,654,191 13,694,589
hydrogenated 447,053 411,550 395,273 614,788
cottonseed oil 6,631,193 7,534,383 17,109,378 6,907,926
crude 0 152,776 142,476 1,032,451
refined 5,597,794 6,270,942 15,480,666 3,301,798
other/1 238,730 202,958 967,532 1,926,726
hydrogenated 794,670 907,707 518,704 646,951
sunseeds 0 221,675 413,574 3,999
sunseed oil 9,239,698 9,361,006 8,835,684 16,272,664
rapeseed 9,533,284 17,669,668 32,291,556 4,495,398
rapeseed oil 21,448,021 10,228,893 8,913,339 10,279,110
crude 12,028,297 794,451 1,323,887 2,998,664
refined 9,419,724 9,434,442 7,589,452 7,280,446
linseed meal 86 278 167 368
cottonseed meal 6,065 5,772 7,969 8,009
soymeal 907,022 925,096 1,199,476 958,508
soymeal flour/me 268,366 301,727 259,756 165,046
soymeal hulls 15,878 17,314 13,831 19,248
lard 3,015,865 2,738,889 3,920,871 3,196,556
edible tallow 7,938,640 11,812,714 8,593,431 13,855,169
inedible tallow 6,766,932 28,162,566 8,896,472 30,767,483
ch white grease 43,530 0 27,426 0

DJ U.S. May Grain Imports-July 6
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-May 2023—- —-Apr 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 503,958 1,111,227 1,107,704 2,442,487
spring wheat 108,864 240,045 185,974 410,073
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 612,822 1,351,273 1,293,678 2,852,560
barley 14,373,434 31,693,422 12,860,017 28,356,337
oats 1,190,818 2,625,754 1,432,880 3,159,500
corn 119,241,824 262,928,222 34,732,611 76,585,407
other corn 11,127,542 24,536,230 6,569,569 14,485,900
TOTAL CORN 130,369,366 287,464,452 41,302,180 91,071,307

DJ U.S. May Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-July 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2023—- —-Apr 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 34,265,574 75,555,591 43,131,334 95,104,591
palm kernel oil 20,430,127 45,048,430 24,486,674 53,993,116
palm oil 126,783,505 279,557,629 137,449,025 303,075,100
soybean 126,741,335 279,464,644 8,225,888 18,138,083
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 24,564,456 54,164,625 15,750,671 34,730,230
rapeseed oil
edible 256,337,469 565,224,119 245,198,261 540,662,166
rapeseed oil,
inedible 61,612 135,854 445,416 982,142

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in reaction to the slight deterioration seen in the crop updates released on Monday and on ideas that the market was oversold. The USDA reports from last week showed higher than expected planted area and lower than expected quarterly stocks, but there was nothing dramatic about the reports for Wheat. Russia seems quiet although army officers and personnel are getting purged and the Russian Wheat exports keep flowing. Canada increased its Wheat planted area on Tuesday so production ideas from that country are higher. Uncertain world weather and Russia’s political problems that exploded last week were reasons to see the stronger price action. Russian Wheat exports are continuing as if nothing happened so far, but that could change down the road, too. Rains are reported from the southern Great Plains to the Southeast, and the Midwest forecast features increasing chances for rain. The weather is still in focus around the world. Canada has been dry but is now getting some showers in parts of the Prairies.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 656, 637, and 623 September, with resistance at 681, 689, and 713 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 864 September. Support is at 824, 812, and 787 September, with resistance at 853, 875, and 889 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 871 and 907 September. Support is at 835, 817, and 807 September, and resistance is at 863, 874, and 894 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed to a little higher yesterday in reaction to the crop condition reports that showed condition slipped slightly for the second week in a row. July was the upside leader as the short squeeze in that month has come back while deliveries are underway. Growing conditions are good for the new crop despite very hot conditions in southern growing areas and the overall new crop price strength has not been good so far. The weather is still good for crop development. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at least some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get a few showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1469, 1451, and 1431 September and resistance is at 1531, 1542, and 1554 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 6
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 19.73 12.08 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 19.47 12.81 0.00
Brokens 11.47 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:

U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday as Corn traders reacted to rallies in Soybeans and Wheat. USDA showed a larger planted area than the trade had expected late last week and had been expected to show improved ratings in condition on Monday. The market is at important support areas on the charts and it is possible that this support holds for the week. The weather features additional precipitation for major growing areas this week. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and domestic demand has been week due to reduced Cattle and other livestock production. Reports of dry initial development conditions were important. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is lost but that no serious damage has been done yet, but serious damage could be done to crops where the rains miss in the next few weeks. The Brazil Corn harvest is underway and so export prices for Corn from Brazil are getting relatively cheap and Brazil is getting the business.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 479, 474, and 468 September, and resistance is at 500, 509, and 513 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 401, 395, and 387 September, and resistance is at 415, 422, and 428 September.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and\Soybean Oil were higher with most of the gains coming from the USDA plantings estimates released on Friday combined with the lack of crop condition improvement in the USDA reports released on Monday. Soybean Meal closed slightly lower. USDA said that Soybeans planted area was just 81.5 million acres and the trade had expected something near 84.6 million acres. The difference is very large and indicates that there could be little space for reduced yield estimates from bad weather moving forward. The planted area report completely changed the Soybeans market. Off and on precipitation is forecast for the next couple of weeks but it is possible that not all areas will get beneficial rain. Big showers and storms were reported in Chicago and to the east over the weekend. Ideas are that the top end of the yield potential is gone but severe damage has not been reported yet. Damage could become severe soon if areas do not get any rain. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong despite the moves in Washington to keep bio fuels demand at more moderate levels and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1447, 1428, and 1383 August, and resistance is at 1517, 1524, and 1536 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 405.00, 307.00, and 390.00 August, and resistance is at 420.00, 439.00, and 442.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 6200, 6020, and 5870 August, with resistance at 6630, 6740, and 6860 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of reduced production in June. Ideas are that demand is generally weak, with China struggling to open its economy and India looking to Sun oil for imports at the expense of other vegetable oils. Canola was higher on Chicago price action and Prairies growing conditions. Drier weather is forecast for the Prairies. Trends are up on the daily charts in sympathy with the price action in Chicago. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. Scattered showers and rains have been reported so planting and initial growth conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 755.00 and 797.00 November. Support is at 735.00, 728.00, and 723.00 November, with resistance at 764.00, 782.00, and 801.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3870, 3800, and 3700 September, with resistance at 4000, 4100, and 4250 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July
53 July 110 July
45 July
70 July

August
94 Sep
115 Sep
50 Sep 140 Aug

September
70 Sep
120 Sep 67 Sep
140 Aug

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 252,089 lots, or 13.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,298 5,298 5,298 5,298 5,298 5,298 0 866 1,833
Sep-23 5,296 5,298 5,178 5,219 5,269 5,219 -50 207,775 131,523
Nov-23 5,123 5,123 5,042 5,075 5,105 5,076 -29 38,353 48,125
Jan-24 5,079 5,079 4,998 5,028 5,053 5,033 -20 4,708 13,612
Mar-24 5,030 5,030 4,964 4,985 5,010 4,984 -26 261 5,571
May-24 5,012 5,012 4,955 4,981 5,002 4,981 -21 126 1,473
Corn
Turnover: 834,124 lots, or 22.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,796 2,819 2,796 2,805 2,796 2,807 11 99 17,074
Sep-23 2,786 2,794 2,773 2,789 2,767 2,785 18 452,070 889,956
Nov-23 2,632 2,661 2,626 2,652 2,613 2,647 34 173,604 339,344
Jan-24 2,578 2,615 2,574 2,597 2,559 2,599 40 119,885 168,462
Mar-24 2,556 2,602 2,556 2,581 2,537 2,585 48 79,412 88,442
May-24 2,578 2,618 2,574 2,592 2,559 2,600 41 9,054 16,883
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,796,978 lots, or 70.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 4,130 4,130 4,073 4,099 4,130 4,114 -16 48 643
Aug-23 4,083 4,105 4,038 4,100 4,079 4,077 -2 78,802 86,291
Sep-23 3,989 4,005 3,940 3,985 3,986 3,977 -9 1,141,839 1,301,047
Nov-23 3,969 3,991 3,927 3,975 3,969 3,966 -3 91,107 247,871
Dec-23 3,872 3,901 3,823 3,870 3,867 3,865 -2 40,732 94,899
Jan-24 3,761 3,788 3,714 3,750 3,741 3,751 10 344,562 556,752
Mar-24 3,593 3,617 3,562 3,590 3,589 3,591 2 31,105 57,792
May-24 3,328 3,335 3,286 3,303 3,326 3,307 -19 68,783 150,845
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,088,755 lots, or 82.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 – – – 7,696 7,696 7,696 0 0 253
Aug-23 7,600 7,698 7,588 7,614 7,600 7,638 38 40,190 31,343
Sep-23 7,558 7,618 7,522 7,568 7,566 7,570 4 885,125 480,471
Oct-23 7,532 7,592 7,502 7,556 7,544 7,546 2 20,836 88,273
Nov-23 7,508 7,576 7,484 7,544 7,516 7,532 16 18,706 74,706
Dec-23 7,506 7,570 7,478 7,542 7,510 7,524 14 18,357 44,657
Jan-24 7,492 7,558 7,464 7,528 7,496 7,510 14 82,401 134,860
Feb-24 7,484 7,544 7,454 7,524 7,486 7,498 12 12,637 19,901
Mar-24 7,452 7,522 7,438 7,506 7,464 7,482 18 8,534 12,712
Apr-24 7,426 7,466 7,424 7,426 7,442 7,438 -4 12 49
May-24 7,418 7,472 7,392 7,464 7,418 7,434 16 1,956 10,174
Jun-24 7,386 7,386 7,386 7,386 7,396 7,386 -10 1 21
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,071,633 lots, or 8.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 – – – 8,102 8,102 8,102 0 0 944
Aug-23 8,124 8,170 8,054 8,124 8,138 8,116 -22 30,434 40,575
Sep-23 8,102 8,148 8,038 8,106 8,100 8,098 -2 886,126 559,317
Nov-23 8,068 8,110 8,010 8,078 8,060 8,066 6 15,727 119,441
Dec-23 8,062 8,118 8,014 8,076 8,068 8,070 2 9,879 69,747
Jan-24 7,974 8,036 7,928 7,990 7,982 7,982 0 117,762 169,769
Mar-24 7,810 7,868 7,768 7,824 7,816 7,814 -2 8,291 45,753
May-24 7,710 7,754 7,668 7,716 7,714 7,704 -10 3,414 12,233
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322