About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Visit Website →

Softs Report 07/03/2023

By On July 3, 2023 - 9:33 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:  Cotton closed higher last week in consolidation trading.  The market rallied on Friday in response to the planted area estimate from USDA that showed farmers planted just 10.678 million actress of All Cotton, down from March intentions of 11.102 million acres and 13.479 million planted last year.  Some buying appeared in response to the export sales announcements that were released on Thursday.  Reports indicate that more showers that continue to improve crop conditions in Texas and into the Southeast this week.  Ideas of weaker demand due to economic problems in Asia and improved production prospects here at home continue.  The weather has improved, but it had been very hot.  There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market and as China is trying not to buy from the US.  Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial.  Showers are also forecast for the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News:  The Delta will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  Texas will have scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.  The USDA average price is now 76.12 ct/lb.  ICE daily certified stocks are now 17,051 bales, from 17,051 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 171 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8160 December.  Support is at 79.50, 78.30, and 77.30 December, with resistance of 81.20, 82.10 and 82.80 December.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 27, 2023
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   214,275
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   30,462    49,722    40,427    56,408   101,726    74,471     9,288   201,767   201,163:   12,508    13,112
    : Changes from: June 20, 2023              (Change in open interest:       6,822)         :
    :      280     9,445     3,501     3,696    -9,520     1,174     2,377     8,651     5,803:   -1,828     1,019
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     14.2      23.2      18.9      26.3      47.5      34.8       4.3      94.2      93.9:      5.8       6.1
    : Total Traders:   279          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       67       100        65        46        48        44        17       198       193:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments:  FCOJ closed higher last week in choppy trading and trends remain mixed on the charts.  July was the strongest month with short position holders getting out of the market before the deliveries start next week.  Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida but seem to have factored in the production losses into the current prices.  Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.  The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state.  Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.  The latest Florida Movement and Pack report showed that inventories are now 40% less than last year.  Nielson said that the average price per gallon of Orange Juice was 88.30 cents through June 17, from 88.70 previously.  Demand was trimmed to 25.16 million gallons, from 25.91 million previously.  The Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack report showed that inventories remain more than 40% below last year.
Overnight News:  Florida should get isolated showers.  Temperatures will average near normal.   Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 253.00, 248.00, and 243.00 September, with resistance at 262.00, 266.00, and 269.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of June 27, 2023
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    10,681                :
: Positions                                                                                                    :
:    1,084     5,888     1,288         0         0     3,719       637         4       636       598     1,949 :
: Changes from:     June 20, 2023                                                                              :
:      -32        14        53         0         0       303       148         4       -12         7         9 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :
:     10.1      55.1      12.1       0.0       0.0      34.8       6.0       0.0       6.0       5.6      18.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    59                     :
:        9         9         5         0         0        18         .         .         7        13         8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments:  Both markets closed lower again Friday and was lower for the week.  London weekly charts show a key reversal down.  There are reports of dry weather for the harvest in Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations and that production is now being harvested and starting to get exported.  The Arabica harvest has expanded and offers of Arabica from Brazil are increasing.  There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take much of the demand.  Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell.  The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any downside movement.  Southeast and south Asian producers could see another tough production year this year due to the effects of El Nino, but the weather appears to be good in these areas for now.
Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.544 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 158.47 ct/lb.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures.  Central America will get mostly dry conditions.  Vietnam will see scattered showers.   ICE NY said that 138 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 654 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with no objectives.  Support is at 157.00, 154.00, and 151.00 September, and resistance is at 168.00, 170.00 and 175.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 2410 September.  Support is at 2460, 2420, and 2370 September, with resistance at 2600, 2670, and 2690 September.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 27, 2023
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   208,867
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   24,224    28,163    57,785    53,829    99,188    65,838    16,222   201,677   201,358:    7,191     7,510
    : Changes from: June 20, 2023              (Change in open interest:       7,150)         :
    :   -6,600     8,030     2,111    10,375    -8,275     1,270     4,770     7,156     6,636:       -6       514
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     11.6      13.5      27.7      25.8      47.5      31.5       7.8      96.6      96.4:      3.4       3.6
    : Total Traders:   361          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       96        82       108       110       104        45        21       304       272:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/27/2023
                         Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers
                   Processor/User
      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
  138,279       56,803        103,316       2,689     4,858         3,061
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
  100%          41.1%         74.7%         1.9%      3.5%          2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
   169            41            49            5         8            9
                         Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
             Managed Money                      Other Reportables
   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading
===============================================================================
  52,288         5,376         3,569     3,469        4,443          10,314
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
  37.8%          3.9%          2.6%      2.5%         3.2%            7.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
    56            13            19        20           8               22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
  Long        Short
=======================
  6,086        3,342
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
  4.4%         2.4%
SUGAR
General Comments:  Both markets were higher on Friday but lower for the week on reports indicated that Brazil production increasing and as the weather in Southeast Asia is currently good for their next crop production prospects.  The Brazil production is apparently not enough to change the narrative of tight world supplies, but more Sugar is now available to the world market and prices are reacting.   India will restrict imports until the first half of next year.  The current year export quota is already gone and the government has no plans to allow for additional exports at this time.  The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies.   The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop.  Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production, but the monsoon has been good so far so both countries might have increased production next year.  In addition, India announced a higher base price for Sugar paid to farmers to help promote additional planted area Unica in Brazil said that the Sugar crush was 40.3 million tons for the first half of June.  Mills produced 2.55 million tons of Sugar, up 19% from last year, and 1.86 million tons of Ethanol, up 1.9% from last year.
Overnight News:  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to below normal.  India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.   ICE NY said that 8,118 notices were posted for delivery against July Sugar 11 futures.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2060 October and resistance is at 2290, 2340, and 2400 October.  Trends in London are down with no objectives.  Support is at 606.00, 588,00, and 574.00 October, with resistance at 623.00, 644.00, and 661.00 October.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 27, 2023
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,091,655
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :  178,181    65,231   249,417   354,374   656,898   231,295    70,297 1,013,266 1,041,842:   78,389    49,813
    : Changes from: June 20, 2023              (Change in open interest:     -82,675)         :
    :  -42,734     2,575   -13,576   -12,739   -73,528     4,230    -1,572   -64,818   -86,101:  -17,857     3,426
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     16.3       6.0      22.8      32.5      60.2      21.2       6.4      92.8      95.4:      7.2       4.6
    : Total Traders:   227          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       72        36        71        68        71        37        20       207       169:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/27/2023
                         Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
                 Producer/Merchant/                Swap Dealers
                   Processor/User
      OI         Long         Short         Long      Short       Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
  93,482        47,672        61,898        6,204     7,626         1,603
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
  100%          51.0%         66.2%         6.6%      8.2%          1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
   119            41            42            9         3            6
                         Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
             Managed Money                      Other Reportables
   Long          Short       Spreading   Long        Short          Spreading
===============================================================================
  22,751         6,903         6,858     414          1,232           2,785
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
  24.3%          7.4%          7.3%      0.4%         1.3%            3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
    29            17            22        4            4               8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
  Long        Short
=======================
  5,195        4,577
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
  5.6%         4.9%
COCOA
General Comments:  Both markets closed higher last week and at new highs for the move on the daily and weekly charts as the rally has stalled but as ideas of tight supplies continue.  Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong.  Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News:  Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa.  Temperatures will be near normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers.  Temperatures should average near normal.  Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.541 million bags.  ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against July contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 566 contracts.
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with no objectives.  Support is at 3240, 3180, and 3130 September, with resistance at 3360, 3390, and 3420 September.  Trends in London are up with no objectives.  Support is at 2540, 2500, and 2460 September, with resistance at 2600, 2630, and 2660 September.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of June 27, 2023
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :—————————————————————————————- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   448,855
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :  112,233    65,875   144,228   112,192   195,621    65,993    32,841   434,646   438,565:   14,209    10,290
    : Changes from: June 20, 2023              (Change in open interest:       6,594)         :
    :     -782    -5,193     8,016      -173     5,251       226    -1,327     7,287     6,747:     -693      -153
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     25.0      14.7      32.1      25.0      43.6      14.7       7.3      96.8      97.7:      3.2       2.3
    : Total Traders:   253          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       98        62        85        39        42        32        19       214       169:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 06/27/2023
                         Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
                 Producer/Merchant/                 Swap Dealers
                   Processor/User
      OI         Long         Short         Long       Short       Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
  481,736       204,676       294,179       27,972     47,244       43,660
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
  100%          42.5%         61.1%         5.8%       9.8%          9.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
   180            43            43           14         13            13
                         Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
             Managed Money                       Other Reportables
   Long          Short       Spreading   Long         Short          Spreading
===============================================================================
  97,073         4,057        29,985     17,795        5,209          55,593
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
  20.2%          0.8%          6.2%      3.7%          1.1%           11.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
    56            7             23        22            10              24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
  Long        Short
=======================
  4,982        1,809
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
  1.0%         0.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
Tagged with: • • • • • • •