William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
Continuing ultra-dry conditions in the central Farm Belt – since late April – exacerbated by 6-7 year low global stocks – has propelled July Corn to a meteoric rally of $1.20 (545-665) since May 18 – pretty much sans exports! Yesterday’s crop ratings at 55% – good-to-excellent – was a 6% plummet from last week – even more egregious was Illinois at 36% – with early planted corn due to pollinate in about 3 weeks! Following the disappointing South American production, the threat of a smaller corn crop than 2022 – despite a 3 million acre increase – looms large! And should the so-far lackluster exports turn around & the dryness continue into early July, current prices are way too low!
Much like July Corn, July Beans has gone “near-vertical” in the past month – scoring a $2.50 gain (12.70-1520)! This is quite an impressive rally in June – given that beans don’t set their pods until August! But that very timing demonstrates how potentially dire the current scenario is – if it stays dry another3-4 weeks! And with no exports to support! Again coming off a substandard South American crop & with the ever-present tight global stocks – & with the projected acreage unchanged for 2023, there is “no margin for error” for the US Bean crop! Following the Argentine drought, a nasty US drought would severely deplete the carry-over for beans! And that’s where we seem to be headed -even though its only late June! On Tues, the good-to-excellent dropped 5% to 54 – and Illinois was a woeful 33%! The dryness is predicted to continue into early July -next Monday’s crop rating are forecast to drop another 3-4%! And more than just scattered showers are need to turn the mkt around
Often relegated to “weak sister” status, July Wht has held their own with corn & beans – rallying $1.30 (580 – 730) since May 31! Not only has the heat also helped the July Wht (Spring Wht/ good-to-excellent 60-51) but geopolitical issues have also added to its Bull Arsenal! First, the Corridor Deal – always on shaky legs – this time around seems unlikely to be renewed – & second, Russia’s $240 a ton floor price for wheat exports has helped support the mkt! Finally, Wht is roughly $5.00 under it 2022 highs – being kept historically cheap by Russia’s inundation onto the global mkt of its cheap exports from its record crop! Sometimes, simply, “low prices cure low prices”!
With a stunning, dramatic turn-around, Aug Hogs have exploded up $20 (74-94) in just 4 week’s time – decisively establishing a low on 5/26/23! Production & slaughter have dropped but we feel improved demand has played the biggest role in the bottom-setting especially within the interesting framework the meat complex – with the extreme disparity between high-priced steaks & dirt-cheap pork chops! Finally, the consumer made the obvious switch – of course based on economy – and the hog mkt took off! And we’re still in the best demand period of the year – “the grilling season”! And that further enhances the hogs exciting “180”!
The spike high from June 7 looks like the real deal – as since then, all we’ve seen is lower highs & lows! And now the mkt is consolidating $7-8 off its highs! Avg weights & slaughters have gone up & demand has been just average! It appears the record high prices have choked off consumer interest – especially with the ready availability of cheaper pork products! However, the down may have been overdone as Aug Cat are now $12 under cash! The mkt most likely will consolidate until the 2 livestock USDA offerings on Friday at 2pm – the June COF & Cold Storage Reports!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337