Grains Report 06/13/2023

DJ Brazil Raises 2022-2023 Soybean Estimate to 155.7M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimate for soybean production for the 2022-2023 growing season as good weather boosted productivity.
Brazilian farmers produced a record 155.7 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Tuesday. In May, the agency forecast a crop of 154.8 million tons. Brazil produced 125.5 million tons of soybeans in 2021-2022, Conab said.
Farmers in most of the country were able to increase their output of the oilseeds with the help of favorable climate conditions and a better use of inputs, Conab said. Productivity in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul was hit by periods of drought and high temperatures during the season, the agency added.
Brazilian farmers will produce 125.7 million metric tons of corn this season, Conab said. In May, the agency forecast a crop of 125.5 million tons. Brazil produced 113.1 million tons of corn in 2021-2022.

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 12
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jun 12, 2023 USDA Market News
Special Note: ***This report will not be published on Monday, June 19, 2023 due to Federal holiday.****
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 08, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/08/2023 06/01/2023 06/09/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 0 0
CORN 1,169,134 1,206,808 1,221,822 31,102,774 44,988,423
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 799 0 0 799 0
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 59,161 49,861 140,248 1,778,921 6,469,020
SOYBEANS 140,179 222,305 608,973 48,837,286 50,529,510
SUNFLOWER 0 100 0 2,608 2,260
WHEAT 246,559 304,400 411,916 317,051 638,625
Total 1,615,832 1,783,474 2,382,959 82,039,439 102,627,838
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 11-Jun 4-Jun 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 81 71 89 86
Cotton Squaring 11 6 14 14
Corn Emerged 93 85 87 87
Soybeans Planted 96 91 87 86
Soybeans Emerged 86 74 68 70
Sorghum Planted 64 49 65 66
Rice Emerged 94 88 94 94
Peanuts Planted 93 85 93 92
Sunflowers Planted 70 40 57 64
Oats Planted 97 93 93 96
Oats Emerged 93 86 87 93
Oats Headed 45 32 31 37
Barley Planted 97 92 96 98
Barley Emerged 88 72 85 90
Winter Wheat Headed 89 82 85 88
Winter Wheat Harvested 8 4 9 9
Spring Wheat Planted 97 93 92 97
Spring Wheat Emerged 90 76 70 87

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 11 36 40 9
Cotton Last Week 1 11 37 41 8
Cotton Last Year 3 16 35 41 5

Corn This Week 2 6 31 51 10
Corn Last Week 1 5 30 53 11
Corn Last Year 1 4 23 59 13

Soybeans This Week 2 7 32 51 8
Soybeans Last Week 2 5 31 53 9
Soybeans Last Year 1 4 25 59 11

Sorghum This Week 2 6 35 49 8
Sorghum Last Week
Sorghum Last Year 6 8 39 45 2

Winter Wheat This Week 12 39 31 32 6
Winter Wheat Last Week 14 20 30 31 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 24 18 27 26 5

Spring Wheat This Week 1 6 33 56 4
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 2 34 58 6
Spring Wheat Last Year 2 7 37 49 5

Rice This Week 0 3 30 54 13
Rice Last Week 0 3 27 59 11
Rice Last Year 0 1 26 57 15

Peanuts This Week 1 5 25 63 6
Peanuts Last Week 2 4 22 67 5
Peaanuts Last Year 1 7 21 63 8

Oats This Week 6 6 35 49 4
Oats Last Week 6 7 30 53 4
Oats Last Year 12 9 21 51 7

Barley This Week 1 5 36 56 2
Barley Last Week 0 2 33 60 5
Barley Last Year 6 15 30 42 7

Pasture and Range This Week 6 14 35 36 9
Pasture and Range Last Week 6 14 35 37 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 18 24 27 27 4

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday on speculative short covering in part on the rally in Corn. The USDA production and WASDE reports showed little change from trade estimates and were not a reason to take a big position in the market one way or another. There is a lot of talk that Russia continues to offer a lot of Wheat into the world market at very cheap prices to help keep demand for American Wheat very low, but the government there is setting a floor price at about $240.00 per ton in an effort to make more money. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat had been delayed due to reports some rain now in many of these areas so conditions are improving and producers are caught up with planting progress now. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Australian production ideas have been fading as El Nino hits the country.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 611, 595, and 573 July, with resistance at 641, 648, and 670 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 782, 762, and 756 July, with resistance at 811, 834, and 847 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 790, 774, and 769 July, and resistance is at 821, 838, and 840 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again last week, with July futures leading the way up as an apparent squeeze is under way for that month with deliveries coming at the end of the month. New crop months have moved to much more moderate gains. USDA made no real changes in its WASDE reports on Friday with ending stocks trimmed 1.0 million cwt for both old and new crop. The weather is still good for crop development. Old crop offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at least some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1859, 1828, and 1793 July and resistance is at 1940, 1952, and 1964 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday as Corn traders reacted to the weather and not the lack of demand news. Even so, the export inspections report showed solid movement of US Corn again last week. Demand for US Corn in the world market has been very low and USDA cut its current year export demand estimate on Friday by 50 million bushels in the latest WASDE updates. No changes were made for new crop supply or demand, so the 50 million bushel cut to demand went to increased current and new crop ending stocks estimates. Reports of dry initial development conditions were important. Chicago got less than 0.2 inches of rain on Saturday and now looks mostly dry this week. Corn is rolling leaves in central and southern Midwest areas but could be in better condition to the north. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 628, 635, and 647 July. Support is at 609, 602, and 579 July, and resistance is at 624, 627, and 647 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 373 July. Support is at 350, 347, and 334 July, and resistance is at 372, 380 and 385 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher yesterday, with Soybean Oil mixed in part on the weather and on reports of strong domestic demand and interior basis levels. Growing conditions feature cool but very dry weather. Some showers were reported in the Midwest over the weekend. Chicago got less than 0.2 inches of rain on Saturday and now looks mostly dry this week. Reports indicate that bio fuels demand for Soybean Oil is very strong and is pushing domestic demand for Soybeans. USDA made no new crop changes in the WASDE reports on Friday as expected. Old crop export demand was cut by 15 million bushels and this was added to ending stocks for the current and the next year. USDA left South American production estimates unchanged. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1352, 1340, and 1333 July, and resistance is at 1393, 1397, and 1413 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 386.00, and 382.00 July, and resistance is at 409.00, 416.00, and 422.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 5220, 5030, and 4970 July, with resistance at 5520, 5560, and 5650 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on Friday and for the week. Futures were lower today on higher than expected CPO stocks seen in the MPOB report and on weak export deamdn. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and down on the weekly charts. MPOB will release its data for May today. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were all down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Ideas are that demand is generally weak, with China struggling to open its economy and India looking to Sunoil for imports at the expense of other vegetable oils. Canola was mixed, with nearby months a little higher and new crop months a little lower. Trends are turning sideways on the daily charts and are down on the weekly charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. Scattered showers and rains have been reported so planting and initial growth conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 663.00, 642.00, and 634.00 Juy, with resistance at 691.00, 708.00, and 710.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3260, 3200, and 3190 August, with resistance at 3440, 3490, and 3500 August.

DJ Malaysia’s May Palm Oil Exports 1.08M Tons; Down 0.8%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 0.8% on month at 1.08 million metric tons in May, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the May crop data and revised numbers for April, issued by MPOB:
May April Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,517,546 1,196,782 Up 26.8%
Palm Oil Exports 1,079,020 1,087,541 Dn 0.78%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 93,804 88,447 Up 6.06%
Palm Oil Imports 80,926 43,118 Up 87.69%
Closing Stocks 1,686,782 1,497,617 Up 12.63%
Crude Palm Oil 921,800 832,966 Up 10.66%
Processed Palm Oil 764,982 664,651 Up 15.1%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
85 July 165 July
75 July
90 July

July
65 July
160 July
60 July
75 July

August
110 Sep
165 Sep 55 Sep
80 Sep

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322