Grains Report 06/09/2023

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2023 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA May USDA 2022
Corn Production 15,210 14,970-15,265 15,265 13,730
Corn Yield 181.2 179.0-182.0 181.5 173.3
Soybean Production 4,505 4,461-4,510 4,510 4,276
Soybean Yield 51.9 51.5-52.0 52.0 49.5
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2022-23
Average Range USDA May
Corn 1,446 1,267-1,517 1,417
Soybeans 223 204-255 215
Wheat 606 592-633 598
2023-24
Average Range USDA May
Corn 2,220 2,030-2,370 2,222
Soybeans 336 269-375 335
Wheat 568 525-627 556
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA May
Corn 297.1 294.4-299.2 297.4
Soybeans 100.4 97.0-103.3 101.0
Wheat 266.4 264.0-268.1 266.3
2023-24
Average Range USDA May
Corn 312.8 309.9-315.4 312.9
Soybeans 121.7 115.0-124.8 122.5
Wheat 264.2 260.0-267.3 264.3
****
2023-24 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA May USDA 2022-23
All Wheat 1,666 1,629-1,704 1,659 1,650
Winter Wheat 1,137 1,107-1,170 1,130 1,104
Hard Red Winter 515 484-547 514 531
Soft Red Winter 413 397-436 406 337
White Winter 211 205-218 210 236
****
2022-23
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 130.8 130.0-133.8 130.0
Soybeans 155.5 155.0-157.7 155.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA May
Corn 35.5 33.0-37.0 37.0
Soybeans 24.3 21.0-27.0 27.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on speculative short covering before the USDA reports today. There is a lot of talk that Russia continues to offer a lot of Wheat into the world market at very cheap prices to help keep demand for American Wheat very low, but the government there is setting a floor price at about $240.00 per ton in an effort to make more money. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to reports some rain now in many of these areas so conditions are improving but might cause a few delays. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 611, 595, and 573 July, with resistance at 637, 641, and 648 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 782, 762, and 756 July, with resistance at 811, 834, and 847 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 790, 774, and 769 July, and resistance is at 821, 838, and 840 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday, with July futures leading the way up as an apparent squeeze is under way for that month with deliveries coming at the end of the month. The weather is still good for crop development. Harm could come if a drought develops. It is expected to be hot and dry this week but there is rain in the longer range forecasts. Old crop offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at least some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1881 and 1922 July. Support is at 1859, 1828, and 1793 July and resistance is at 1890, 1902, and 1914 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday as Corn traders discounted the weather and concentrated non demand news and the potential for ending stocks increases in the next round of WASDE reports to be released on Friday. Reports of dry initial development conditions were important as dry and hot weather is in the forecast for the coming week. However, some forecasters are calling for a pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions starting this weekend. Corn is rolling leaves in southern Midwest areas but most of the Corn should be ok despite the warm and dry weather seen now. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 595, 581, and 579 July, and resistance is at 614, 616, and 624 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 373 July. Support is at 342, 334, and 326 July, and resistance is at 361, 3687 and 373 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher yesterday on reports of strong domestic demand and interior basis levels. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week. Planting will be complete by then and then the market will worry about hot and dry weather for the Midwest. It is expected to be hot and dry this week, but the Soybeans production can take those conditions for now. Some rain is in the forecast starting this weekend and some forecasters suggest that a pattern shift for the climate is coming at that time to cooler and wetter conditions. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 197,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1366 July. Support is at 1352, 1340, and 1333 July, and resistance is at 1389, 1397, and 1413 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 386.00, and 382.00 July, and resistance is at 409.00, 416.00, and 422.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6240 and 5380 July. Support is at 4970, 4870, and 4800 July, with resistance at 5240, 5350, and 5520 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Not available today
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Not available today

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
85 July 165 July
75 July
90 July

July
65 July
160 July
60 July
75 July

August
110 Sep
165 Sep 55 Sep
80 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 8
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 695.20 25.00 Jul 2023 up 0.30
Track Thunder Bay 719.80 40.00 Jul 2023 up 9.60
Track Vancouver 739.80 60.00 Jul 2023 up 9.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 787.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 787.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 792.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 795.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 795.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 800.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 735.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 730.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3450.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 226.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.62)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 131,415 lots, or .65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,050 5,063 5,030 5,044 5,035 5,048 13 85,118 75,470
Sep-23 4,835 4,876 4,835 4,852 4,835 4,853 18 30,677 78,312
Nov-23 4,741 4,770 4,741 4,757 4,741 4,754 13 14,808 43,287
Jan-24 4,710 4,740 4,709 4,731 4,710 4,725 15 693 7,386
Mar-24 4,699 4,719 4,693 4,708 4,694 4,704 10 91 5,210
May-24 4,691 4,715 4,691 4,707 4,685 4,704 19 28 859
Corn
Turnover: 668,647 lots, or 17.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,652 2,667 2,646 2,657 2,648 2,656 8 224,999 501,711
Sep-23 2,600 2,623 2,594 2,621 2,598 2,609 11 261,051 622,672
Nov-23 2,539 2,550 2,531 2,549 2,538 2,541 3 102,609 387,427
Jan-24 2,519 2,535 2,514 2,534 2,521 2,526 5 23,937 131,312
Mar-24 2,511 2,527 2,507 2,526 2,513 2,517 4 54,601 99,368
May-24 2,515 2,529 2,511 2,526 2,516 2,520 4 1,450 7,860
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,007,308 lots, or 34.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,539 3,566 3,529 3,565 3,521 3,545 24 52,313 84,038
Aug-23 3,548 3,565 3,537 3,553 3,529 3,549 20 35,840 231,136
Sep-23 3,492 3,505 3,475 3,494 3,476 3,488 12 745,548 1,197,527
Nov-23 3,470 3,482 3,456 3,470 3,456 3,468 12 25,906 206,799
Dec-23 3,438 3,448 3,407 3,435 3,422 3,433 11 3,736 63,654
Jan-24 3,373 3,394 3,367 3,380 3,365 3,379 14 121,529 357,702
Mar-24 3,290 3,300 3,279 3,289 3,284 3,288 4 11,449 48,955
May-24 3,121 3,131 3,110 3,119 3,114 3,118 4 10,987 39,536
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,410,001 lots, or 9.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 6,950 6,950 6,950 6,950 7,200 6,950 -250 1 335
Jul-23 6,596 6,824 6,568 6,758 6,616 6,716 100 33,403 37,924
Aug-23 6,500 6,740 6,472 6,704 6,524 6,626 102 44,473 119,712
Sep-23 6,438 6,684 6,410 6,642 6,458 6,560 102 1,211,439 575,787
Oct-23 6,430 6,658 6,400 6,614 6,444 6,546 102 16,349 94,012
Nov-23 6,412 6,650 6,400 6,618 6,442 6,546 104 18,606 69,423
Dec-23 6,420 6,646 6,400 6,620 6,440 6,558 118 17,396 37,457
Jan-24 6,420 6,650 6,396 6,624 6,436 6,556 120 54,741 98,878
Feb-24 6,440 6,664 6,416 6,644 6,456 6,568 112 12,213 16,341
Mar-24 6,452 6,686 6,450 6,654 6,456 6,654 198 198 3,857
Apr-24 6,452 6,648 6,452 6,628 6,478 6,596 118 9 47
May-24 6,438 6,638 6,420 6,620 6,454 6,566 112 1,173 1,716
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,115,306 lots, or 79.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,054 7,286 7,054 7,274 7,080 7,168 88 38,750 28,672
Aug-23 7,070 7,288 7,062 7,254 7,070 7,182 112 16,025 125,980
Sep-23 6,992 7,220 6,988 7,206 7,010 7,108 98 980,582 567,705
Nov-23 6,956 7,186 6,956 7,138 6,984 7,084 100 11,728 110,495
Dec-23 7,004 7,200 6,992 7,190 7,006 7,104 98 7,553 64,059
Jan-24 6,956 7,130 6,930 7,126 6,944 7,048 104 46,949 90,246
Mar-24 6,894 7,056 6,892 7,046 6,898 6,980 82 12,443 38,599
May-24 6,788 6,944 6,772 6,932 6,782 6,868 86 1,276 3,448
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322