About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 5
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jun 5, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 01, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/01/2023 05/25/2023 06/02/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 0 0
CORN 1,180,954 1,346,392 1,458,519 29,907,786 43,766,601
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 49,861 33,242 207,953 1,719,099 6,328,772
SOYBEANS 214,247 243,066 370,044 48,670,189 49,920,537
SUNFLOWER 100 0 0 2,608 2,260
WHEAT 291,599 391,292 355,340 57,691 226,709
Total 1,736,761 2,013,992 2,391,856 80,357,373 100,244,879
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 04-June 28-May 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 71 60 82 75
Cotton Squaring 6 3 10 10
Corn Planted 96 92 93 91
Corn Emerged 85 72 76 72
Soybeans Planted 91 83 76 76
Soybeans Emerged 74 56 54 56
Sorghum Planted 49 42 54 53
Rice Emerged 88 83 88 87
Peanuts Planted 85 72 87 85
Sunflowers Planted 40 28 40 41
Oats Planted 97 93 93 96
Oats Emerged 86 75 79 86
Oats Headed 32 26 25 30
Barley Planted 92 86 90 95
Barley Emerged 72 55 71 80
Winter Wheat Headed 82 72 78 81
Winter Wheat Harvested 4 5 4
Spring Wheat Planted 93 85 81 93
Spring Wheat Emerged 76 57 53 74

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 11 37 43 6
Cotton Last Week 1 12 39 41 7
Cotton Last Year 2 13 37 43 5

Corn This Week 1 5 30 53 11
Corn Last Week 1 4 26 58 11
Corn Last Year 1 3 23 61 12

Soybeans This Week 2 5 11 53 9
Soybeans Last Week
Soybeans Last Year

Winter Wheat This Week 14 20 30 31 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 16 19 31 29 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 23 17 30 26 4

Spring Wheat This Week 0 2 34 58 6
Spring Wheat Last Week
Spring Wheat Last Year

Rice This Week 0 3 27 59 11
Rice Last Week 1 4 23 59 13
Rice Last Year 0 2 26 57 15

Peanuts This Week 1 4 22 67 5
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 25 66 4
Peaanuts Last Year 1 6 20 64 9

Oats This Week 6 7 30 53 4
Oats Last Week 6 8 30 51 5
Oats Last Year 12 10 23 47 8

Barley This Week 0 2 44 60 5
Barley Last Week
Barley Last Year 1 16 35 38 8

Pasture and Range This Week 6 14 35 37 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 7 15 35 35 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 19 24 29 25 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on news that Russia saw little reason to extend the Black Sea agreements allowing Ukrainian exports through the ports instead of over land. There is a lot of talk that Russia continues to offer a lot of Wheat into the world market at very cheap prices to help keep demand for American Wheat very low. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to reports some rain now in many of these areas so conditions are improving but might cause a few delays. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 614, 595, and 573 July, with resistance at 637, 661, and 670 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 807, 792, and 786 July, with resistance at 834, 850, and 864 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 821, 797, and 793 July, and resistance is at 834, 850, and 864 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday, with July futures leading the way up as an apparent squeeze is under way for that month with deliveries coming at the end of the month. The weather is still good for crop development. Harm could come if a drought develops. It is expected to be hot and dry this week but there is rain in the longer range forecasts. Old crop offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1881 and 1922 July. Support is at 1778, 1731, and 1684 July and resistance is at 1807, 1824, and 1836 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats were a little higher yesterday as Corn traders discounted the weather and concentrated non demand news and the potential for ending stocks increases in the next round of WASDE reports to be released on Friday. Reports of dry initial development conditions were important as dry and hot weather is in the forecast for the coming week. However, some forecasters are calling for a pattern shift to cooler and wetter conditions starting this weekend. Corn is rolling leaves in southern Midwest areas but most of the Corn should be ok despite the warm and dry weather seen now. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 615 and 635 July. Support is at 595, 581, and 579 July, and resistance is at 614, 616, and 624 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 334, 326, and 322 July, and resistance is at 347, 352 and 358 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower yesterday but recovered from the weakest levels seen early in the session. The products closed mixed. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week. Planting will be complete by then and then the market will worry about hot and dry weather for the Midwest. It is expected to be hot and dry this week, but the Soybeans production can take those conditions for now. Some rain is in the forecast starting this weekend and some forecasters suggest that a pattern shift for the climate is coming at that time to cooler and wetter conditions. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News: Spain bought 165,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1366 July. Support is at 1343, 1333, and 1305 July, and resistance is at 1366, 1384, and 1389 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 394.00, 386.00, and 382.00 July, and resistance is at 402.00, 409.00, and 416.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4800, 4660, and 4460 July, with resistance at 5060, 5090, and 5240 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday and sharply lower today on weaker outside markets and weak export data for May from AmSpec. Trends are turning down again on the daily charts. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were all down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Canola was lower yesterday. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data again this week. Scattered showers and rains have been reported so planting and initial growth conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 642.00, 634.00, and 628.00 July, with resistance at 686.00, 691.00, and 706.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3140 August. Support is at 3290, 3200, and 3140 August, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
85 July 165 July
75 July
90 July

July
65 July
160 July
60 July
75 July

August
110 Sep
165 Sep 55 Sep
80 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 5
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 683.00 25.00 Jul 2023 up 6.50
Track Thunder Bay 695.10 40.00 Jul 2023 dn 2.90
Track Vancouver 715.10 60.00 Jul 2023 dn 2.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 787.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 782.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 785.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 795.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 790.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 792.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 735.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 725.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3430.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 231.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.606)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 171,354 lots, or 8.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,007 5,026 4,991 5,007 5,053 5,006 -47 126,722 93,163
Sep-23 4,829 4,837 4,811 4,827 4,853 4,823 -30 31,451 70,080
Nov-23 4,737 4,759 4,726 4,746 4,760 4,740 -20 12,203 43,736
Jan-24 4,706 4,725 4,695 4,719 4,730 4,709 -21 837 7,553
Mar-24 4,693 4,710 4,685 4,701 4,714 4,696 -18 115 5,177
May-24 4,698 4,703 4,686 4,703 4,709 4,695 -14 26 800
Corn
Turnover: 856,866 lots, or 22.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,656 2,658 2,635 2,642 2,662 2,645 -17 362,748 578,849
Sep-23 2,613 2,618 2,590 2,593 2,623 2,599 -24 260,971 534,624
Nov-23 2,541 2,548 2,526 2,530 2,554 2,535 -19 124,155 385,587
Jan-24 2,531 2,539 2,509 2,511 2,537 2,516 -21 27,722 118,522
Mar-24 2,520 2,522 2,502 2,505 2,528 2,509 -19 76,224 101,896
May-24 2,522 2,528 2,508 2,510 2,532 2,516 -16 5,046 6,769
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,442,405 lots, or 5.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,547 3,594 3,539 3,561 3,511 3,565 54 114,447 122,994
Aug-23 3,561 3,592 3,550 3,565 3,519 3,571 52 36,421 235,540
Sep-23 3,497 3,526 3,490 3,505 3,470 3,509 39 1,033,275 1,301,241
Nov-23 3,481 3,505 3,474 3,485 3,455 3,490 35 40,599 202,650
Dec-23 3,448 3,467 3,442 3,446 3,427 3,452 25 3,942 62,040
Jan-24 3,402 3,413 3,381 3,391 3,375 3,395 20 181,920 330,455
Mar-24 3,306 3,318 3,290 3,299 3,286 3,302 16 14,932 49,186
May-24 3,152 3,163 3,130 3,135 3,138 3,142 4 16,869 33,842
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,182,900 lots, or 77.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 6,990 6,994 6,990 6,992 6,990 6,990 0 12 335
Jul-23 6,688 6,758 6,550 6,634 6,664 6,662 -2 56,536 62,068
Aug-23 6,578 6,654 6,476 6,550 6,572 6,572 0 26,996 116,608
Sep-23 6,524 6,590 6,406 6,490 6,522 6,500 -22 986,377 566,732
Oct-23 6,512 6,560 6,398 6,460 6,500 6,492 -8 17,156 83,380
Nov-23 6,506 6,550 6,394 6,468 6,502 6,486 -16 20,456 64,329
Dec-23 6,502 6,542 6,398 6,460 6,502 6,484 -18 21,489 32,729
Jan-24 6,500 6,540 6,392 6,468 6,510 6,480 -30 43,038 87,144
Feb-24 6,518 6,564 6,414 6,486 6,524 6,496 -28 10,239 13,205
Mar-24 6,524 6,544 6,416 6,480 6,498 6,496 -2 100 3,801
Apr-24 6,526 6,536 6,508 6,536 6,532 6,522 -10 5 48
May-24 6,522 6,534 6,408 6,480 6,506 6,482 -24 496 1,192
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 981,192 lots, or 68.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,124 7,188 7,024 7,132 7,120 7,120 0 51,366 57,239
Aug-23 7,090 7,154 7,004 7,104 7,094 7,078 -16 9,150 121,723
Sep-23 7,030 7,090 6,930 7,040 7,030 7,014 -16 846,917 547,561
Nov-23 7,000 7,060 6,914 7,006 7,014 6,988 -26 14,725 105,700
Dec-23 7,036 7,086 6,952 7,034 7,048 7,022 -26 10,563 61,318
Jan-24 7,010 7,044 6,904 6,990 7,002 6,984 -18 35,436 85,458
Mar-24 6,952 6,986 6,866 6,942 6,944 6,928 -16 11,277 34,235
May-24 6,826 6,854 6,750 6,818 6,824 6,810 -14 1,758 2,711
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322