Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton closed mixed yesterday, with July higher as traders continued to worry about a fallout if Congress rejects a deal for a new debt limit ceiling. Failure to agree on a new debt ceiling increase could push the US and world economies into recession and hurt Cotton demand, but there is an agreement between the leaders of both parties so members will vote starting today. Also noted good and improving growing conditions and average planting progress for the US crop. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.06 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 63 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 82.80, 81.40, and 79.90 July, with resistance of 86.50, 87.00 and 88.00 July.
Date 28-May 21-May 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 60 45 66 62
Cotton Squaring 3 7 6
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 12 39 41 7
Cotton Last Week
Cotton Last Year 3 15 38 40 4
General Comments: FCOJ closed much lower yesterday on what appeared t be speculative profit taking after the market tried and failed to extend the rally. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 280.00, 270.00, and 260.00 July, with resistance at 290.00, 299.00, and 305.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday, The debt ceiling negotiations produced an agreement between the two sides, but it still needs to pass congress and many members do not like the bill. It could be a close vote today. Short term trends are down in New York amid good Brazilian weather outlooks. There are reports of good rains and dry weather mixed in for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are increasing. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take some of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.592 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 169.87 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 176.00 and 169.00 July. Support is at 174.00, 171.00, and 168.00 July, and resistance is at 181.00, 183.00 and 187.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2460 July, and resistance is at 2670, 2710, and 2740 July.
General Comments: Both New York and London closed lower and trends are mixed in both markets. The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is less this year and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand also has a smaller crop. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2460, 2360, and 2300 July and resistance is at 2580, 2620, and 2660 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 692.00, 682.00, and 676.00 August and resistance is at 715.00, 735.00, and 743.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher as the market consolidates just below spike highs set in the last few weeks. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, but certified stocks are increasing in New York. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.709 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2990, 2970, and 2950 July, with resistance at 3080, 3100, and 3130 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2350, 2300, and 2270 July, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.