About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 30
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue May 30, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 25, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/25/2023 05/18/2023 05/26/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 73 2,154 10,229
CORN 1,313,411 1,326,281 1,412,248 28,691,303 42,308,082
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,686 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 33,169 116,048 144,690 1,669,067 6,120,819
SOYBEANS 239,736 166,590 404,350 48,450,848 49,550,493
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,508 2,260
WHEAT 382,031 440,094 344,319 19,557,889 19,997,455
Total 1,968,347 2,049,013 2,305,680 98,380,655 117,990,262
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 28-May 21-May 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 60 45 66 62
Cotton Squaring 3 7 6
Corn Planted 92 81 84 84
Corn Emerged 72 52 58 63
Soybeans Planted 83 66 64 65
Soybeans Emerged 56 36 36 40
Sorghum Planted 42 33 39 41
Rice Planted 95 90 94 93
Rice Emerged 83 76 77 78
Peanuts Planted 72 55 77 75
Sunflowers Planted 28 5 19 25
Oats Planted 93 82 86 92
Oats Emerged 75 65 69 78
Oats Headed 26 20 25
Barley Planted 86 70 83 90
Barley Emerged 55 33 60 67
Winter Wheat Headed 72 61 71 73
Spring Wheat Planted 85 64 70 86
Spring Wheat Emerged 57 32 40 59

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 1 12 39 41 7
Cotton Lst Week
Cotton Last Year 3 15 38 40 4

Corn This Week 1 4 26 58 11
Corn Last Week
Corn Last Year 1 3 23 61 12

Winter Wheat This Week 16 19 31 29 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 18 22 29 26 5
Winter Wheat Last Year 23 17 31 25 4

Rice This Week 1 4 23 59 13
Rice Last Week 0 4 23 60 13
Rice Last Year 0 2 27 57 14

Peanuts This Week 1 4 25 66 4
Peanuts Last Week
Peaanuts Last Year 0 6 21 68 5

Oats This Week 6 8 30 51 5
Oats Last Week 5 9 28 53 5
Oats Last Year 13 10 26 45 6

Pasture and Range This Week 7 15 35 35 8
Pasture and Range Last Week 10 19 34 31 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 22 24 30 22 2

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower and closed at new lows for the move. There were reports that Polish Wheat was being imported by east coast millers due to price. It is cheaper to buy in Europe and ship the Wheat rather than buy in the US and pay the rail freight. There is also a lot of talk that Russia continues to offer a lot of Wheat into the world market at very cheap prices to keep demand for American Wheat very low. Bad growing conditions and bad planting conditions for Spring Wheat supported Minneapolis futures. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. It is raining now in many of these areas so conditions are improving. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 573 and 543 July. Support is at 589, 584, and 572 July, with resistance at 603, 617, and 625 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 766 and 720 July. Support is at 769, 762, and 756 July, with resistance at 812, 834, and 850 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 769, 762, and 734 July, and resistance is at 821, 836, and 853 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday after another sharp rally in July. New crop months were a little lower as the weather is good for crop development. There was also some buying noted on hot and dry conditions developing in the Delta, but these conditions should benefit crops initially. Harm could come if a drought develops. It is expected to be hot and dry this week but there is rain in the longer range forecasts. Old crop offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1690, 1680, and 1660 July and resistance is at 1720, 1733, and 1743 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 31
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 19.09 11.69 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.85 12.40 0.00
Brokens 11.10 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats were higher yesterday. The weekly charts show that Corn futures have moved into a big gap left by the roll from May to July as the front month, but futures could not close the gap or make any further headway in closing the gap yesterday. Oats are in a sideways trend on the weekly charts. Reports of strong planting progress and good, but dry initial development conditions were important as dry and hot weather is in the forecast for the coming week. The market ignored the forecasts yesterday as cooler temperatures are likely by next week and some rain is possible in a couple of weeks. Corn is rolling leaves in southern Midwest areas but most of the Corn should be ok despite the warm and dry weather seen now. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 615 and 637 July. Support is at 590, 580, and 570 July, and resistance is at 607, 612, and 616 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 373 July. Support is at 326, 322, and 312 July, and resistance is at 347, 352 and 358 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday with the weakness most extreme in Soybeans. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days. Planting will be complete by then and then the market will worry about hot and dry weather for the Midwest. It is expected to be hot and dry this week, but the Soybeans production can take those conditions for now. Some rain is in the forecast in about two weeks. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is being shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China and other countries. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1279 and 1236 July. Support is at 1288, 1276, and 1264 July, and resistance is at 1305, 1343, and 1360 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 388.00, 382.00, and 376.00 July, and resistance is at 402.00, 409.00, and 416.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4580, 4400, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4910, 4970, and 5060 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday and sharply lower today on weaker outside markets and weak export data for May from AmSpec. Trends are turning down again on the daily charts. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were all down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Canola was lower yesterday and trends turned down on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. Scattered showers and rains have been reported so planting and initial growth conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 652.00, 646.00, and 640.00 July, with resistance at 686.00, 691.00, and 706.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3290 and 3140 August. Support is at 3310, 3270, and 3210 August, with resistance at 3440, 3470, and 3500 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-31 Palm Oil Exports 1,085,070 Tons, Down 1.8%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports in May are estimated down 1.8% on month at 1,085,070 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-31 April 1-30
RBD Palm Olein 285,035 318,313
RBD Palm Oil 87,685 107,442
RBD Palm Stearin 99,632 103,415
Crude Palm Oil 242,268 204,392
Total* 1,085,070 1,104,726
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June
85 July 165 July
75 July
90 July

July
65 July
160 July
60 July
75 July

August
110 Sep
165 Sep 55 Sep
80 Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 30
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 698.70 15.00 July 2023 dn 6.00
Basis: Thunder Bay 698.20 40.00 July 2023 dn 25.50
Basis: Vancouver 720.20 62.00 July 2023 dn 25.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com. 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 770.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 765.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 765.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 780.00 -32.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 775.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 775.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 710.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 700.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3350.00 -150.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 229.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.619)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 214,621 lots, or 10.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,042 5,054 4,972 4,982 5,053 5,001 -52 157,265 109,721
Sep-23 4,823 4,831 4,763 4,772 4,821 4,781 -40 35,581 58,582
Nov-23 4,766 4,766 4,701 4,703 4,761 4,719 -42 18,936 45,784
Jan-24 4,728 4,734 4,673 4,674 4,724 4,693 -31 2,428 7,662
Mar-24 4,710 4,718 4,663 4,664 4,707 4,680 -27 308 5,121
May-24 4,718 4,718 4,675 4,675 4,712 4,682 -30 103 343
Corn
Turnover: 727,132 lots, or 18.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,638 2,644 2,619 2,633 2,619 2,631 12 336,871 686,372
Sep-23 2,598 2,604 2,577 2,586 2,587 2,587 0 181,049 453,767
Nov-23 2,544 2,549 2,521 2,522 2,534 2,527 -7 110,795 385,436
Jan-24 2,524 2,529 2,501 2,502 2,512 2,508 -4 26,264 116,758
Mar-24 2,514 2,520 2,495 2,496 2,505 2,500 -5 71,226 99,139
May-24 2,516 2,519 2,495 2,498 2,506 2,501 -5 927 3,130
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,517,236 lots, or 51.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,438 3,444 3,369 3,391 3,437 3,400 -37 99,287 233,240
Aug-23 3,452 3,462 3,385 3,411 3,452 3,421 -31 32,798 225,397
Sep-23 3,415 3,424 3,358 3,379 3,420 3,387 -33 1,158,607 1,354,291
Nov-23 3,411 3,417 3,351 3,369 3,411 3,383 -28 32,543 175,321
Dec-23 3,378 3,385 3,329 3,352 3,384 3,353 -31 2,846 58,559
Jan-24 3,336 3,341 3,280 3,307 3,340 3,306 -34 158,412 324,927
Mar-24 3,248 3,250 3,217 3,233 3,251 3,234 -17 19,180 47,951
May-24 3,113 3,119 3,080 3,090 3,116 3,096 -20 13,563 35,531
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,189,719 lots, or 76.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,046 7,046 6,600 6,600 7,096 6,940 -156 1,660 329
Jul-23 6,718 6,728 6,464 6,498 6,836 6,582 -254 63,384 101,413
Aug-23 6,632 6,632 6,354 6,382 6,710 6,470 -240 18,298 111,603
Sep-23 6,558 6,560 6,314 6,330 6,654 6,418 -236 1,014,453 652,205
Oct-23 6,560 6,560 6,310 6,316 6,632 6,396 -236 18,906 69,749
Nov-23 6,524 6,528 6,314 6,336 6,620 6,404 -216 18,363 54,154
Dec-23 6,558 6,558 6,308 6,320 6,608 6,386 -222 11,621 25,277
Jan-24 6,538 6,538 6,298 6,306 6,606 6,388 -218 42,348 74,060
Feb-24 6,394 6,394 6,356 6,356 6,604 6,364 -240 4 509
Mar-24 6,536 6,538 6,354 6,368 6,620 6,442 -178 115 1,525
Apr-24 6,496 6,498 6,376 6,376 6,586 6,436 -150 12 55
May-24 6,520 6,538 6,344 6,356 6,608 6,416 -192 555 852
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,054,355 lots, or 72.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,088 7,100 6,852 6,864 7,168 6,960 -208 59,169 107,028
Aug-23 7,052 7,060 6,820 6,830 7,132 6,918 -214 14,169 114,890
Sep-23 6,976 6,988 6,748 6,780 7,054 6,854 -200 904,397 633,759
Nov-23 7,002 7,002 6,762 6,780 7,060 6,862 -198 17,654 93,344
Dec-23 7,052 7,052 6,806 6,820 7,080 6,884 -196 12,746 48,958
Jan-24 6,960 6,964 6,742 6,764 7,030 6,832 -198 38,147 84,990
Mar-24 6,930 6,930 6,724 6,748 6,950 6,812 -138 7,057 25,060
May-24 6,914 6,916 6,720 6,742 6,968 6,800 -168 1,016 2,520
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322