Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 05/30/2023
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton rallied to close much higher on Friday, but still was lower for the week as traders continued to worry about a fallout from the failure of Congress to reach a new debt limit ceiling. Failure to agree on a new debt ceiling increase could push the US and world economies into recession and hurt Cotton demand, but there were signs that the situation could be resolved on Friday to provoke the rally. Also noted good and improving growing conditions and average planting progress for the US crop. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.42 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 63 bales yesterday.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 23, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 241,517
: Positions :
: 36,119 32,410 59,668 58,284 123,405 73,220 15,521 227,290 231,005: 14,227 10,512
: Changes from: May 16, 2023 (Change in open interest: 10,213) :
: 6,860 -11,936 2,252 -3,981 20,486 3,113 461 8,244 11,263: 1,969 -1,050
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 13.4 24.7 24.1 51.1 30.3 6.4 94.1 95.6: 5.9 4.4
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 71 97 47 61 47 24 227 211:
——————————————————————————————————————-
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 301.00 July. Support is at 280.00, 270.00, and 260.00 July, with resistance at 299.00, 305.00, and 311.00 July.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 23, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,607 :
: Positions :
: 1,251 6,174 1,255 0 10 3,642 340 164 742 540 2,490 :
: Changes from: May 16, 2023 :
: -46 503 0 -55 -40 84 -88 153 -87 -121 528 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.8 53.2 10.8 0.0 0.1 31.4 2.9 1.4 6.4 4.7 21.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 11 9 4 0 . 19 . . 9 9 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher on Friday, but both markets were lower for the week as the US Dollar rallied in the face of the US debt ceiling increase negotiations. It now appears that there will be a resolution that will not make the far left or the far right very happy. Short term trends are still turning down in New York amid good Brazilian weather outlooks. There are reports of good rains and dry weather mixed in for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase in the short term. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take some of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.598 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 172.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 180.00, 176.00, and 165.00 July. Support is at 18000, 177.00, and 174.00 July, and resistance is at 187.00, 190.00 and 194.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 July. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2460 July, and resistance is at 2670, 2710, and 2740 July.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 23, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 232,063
: Positions :
: 33,775 18,878 65,176 52,976 128,624 72,293 12,182 224,220 224,861: 7,842 7,202
: Changes from: May 16, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,398) :
: 1,043 -975 3,450 -231 1,079 184 355 4,446 3,909: -48 489
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.6 8.1 28.1 22.8 55.4 31.2 5.2 96.6 96.9: 3.4 3.1
: Total Traders: 365 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 77 117 109 120 49 21 317 286:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/23/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
136,303 47,760 96,438 3,917 4,634 3,656
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 35.0% 70.8% 2.9% 3.4% 2.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 41 42 7 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
47,348 4,343 9,326 5,682 1,753 11,885
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
34.7% 3.2% 6.8% 4.2% 1.3% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
59 6 17 20 10 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,729 4,268
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 3.1%
SUGAR
General Comments: Both New York and London closed higher on Friday, but lower for the week, and trends are down for the short term in New York. Trends are mixed in London. Unica estimated that Sugar production increased greatly in the first half of May to help the market think that supply shortages might come to an end for at least the time being soon. It said that the first half May crush was 44 million tons, up 28% from last year. Mills produced 2.5 million tons of Sugar, up 50% from last year, and 1.9 billion liters of ethanol, up 15% from last year. The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions. The ISO said that a sharp reduction for its projection for a global sugar supply surplus in 2022/23 is 850,000 tons from the 4.15 million tons seen in its previous quarterly report in February. The cut was partly driven by downward revisions to production in India (32.8 million tons from 34.3 million) and Thailand (11.0 million tons from 12.3 million), though the ISO said the focus has now shifted to top exporter Brazil.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2470 and 2420 July. Support is at 2460, 2360, and 2300 July and resistance is at 2550, 2620, and 2680 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 692.00, 682.00, and 676.00 August and resistance is at 715.00, 735.00, and 743.00 August.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 23, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,284,085
: Positions :
: 228,152 59,036 331,836 387,227 749,108 241,110 97,211 1,188,325 1,237,191: 95,760 46,894
: Changes from: May 16, 2023 (Change in open interest: 25,390) :
: 9,087 4,086 5,058 8,976 10,819 919 1,355 24,039 21,318: 1,351 4,072
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.8 4.6 25.8 30.2 58.3 18.8 7.6 92.5 96.3: 7.5 3.7
: Total Traders: 262 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 93 42 85 68 75 41 22 238 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/23/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
86,841 37,147 64,925 6,884 4,693 1,486
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.8% 74.8% 7.9% 5.4% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
126 36 42 9 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,635 3,684 4,161 1,523 1,473 3,584
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
30.7% 4.2% 4.8% 1.8% 1.7% 4.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 10 19 8 3 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,421 2,835
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.2% 3.3%
COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as the market consolidates just below spike highs set in the last few weeks. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, but certified stocks are increasing in New York. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast had reached 2.030 million tons by May 21 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 5.7% from the same period last season.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.718 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2990, 2970, and 2950 July, with resistance at 3080, 3100, and 3130 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2300, and 2270 July, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.
COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 23, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 425,866
: Positions :
: 104,378 65,990 132,712 109,240 181,278 63,449 35,040 409,779 415,021: 16,086 10,844
: Changes from: May 16, 2023 (Change in open interest: 5,962) :
: 3,367 3,533 128 -289 780 1,977 945 5,183 5,385: 779 577
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.5 15.5 31.2 25.7 42.6 14.9 8.2 96.2 97.5: 3.8 2.5
: Total Traders: 254 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 92 64 93 40 43 31 16 217 176:
——————————————————————————————————————-
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/23/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
413,356 155,194 270,454 32,744 29,468 35,307
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.5% 65.4% 7.9% 7.1% 8.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
173 43 41 17 9 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
102,181 4,822 21,636 16,315 5,398 44,606
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.7% 1.2% 5.2% 3.9% 1.3% 10.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
53 10 21 19 9 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,373 1,665
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322