Grains Report 05/26/2023

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 25
Winnipeg–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended May 21, 2023. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2007.6 295.3 327.6 385.3 49.5 904.8 244.4 240.1 4868.5
Week Ago 1974.5 334.5 327.6 416.3 51.4 965.3 239.5 299.9 5047.2
Year Ago 2409.6 549.9 226.7 281.0 48.2 1174.5 277.8 341.0 6224.2
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 194.3 20.1 22.6 27.7 2.5 133.8 10.2 2.2 437.6
Week Ago 125.6 27.3 30.9 37.2 3.8 194.8 8.6 1.1 452.7
To Date 18601.3 4499.2 2104.9 4062.7 148.2 15231.7 2364.6 350.4 50601.2
Year Ago 13062.8 2076.8 1653.7 3275.8 187.3 12357.9 1710.0 614.5 37301.1
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 298.6 71.1 9.1 56.3 0.2 130.3 3.1 65.4 652.7
Week Ago 360.5 97.6 0.1 52.0 – 166.5 12.3 91.6 844.3
To Date 19076.3 5228.7 308.8 2521.4 6.7 7871.8 1710.9 1855.8 44120.6
Year Ago 11855.0 2522.1 166.5 1873.5 27.0 5271.0 1075.0 1592.6 29467.6
EXPORTS
This Week 144.4 102.6 10.6 74.0 0.9 128.6 0.9 53.7 580.9
Week Ago 372.5 57.5 44.3 20.0 0.5 119.0 19.3 94.7 733.3
To Date 16125.5 4483.6 1201.6 2683.7 42.0 7024.5 1644.7 1594.2 39244.4
Year Ago 9346.7 2118.9 946.3 1826.7 74.0 4595.1 1052.4 1372.2 24867.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 109.1 9.2 12.6 53.6 1.3 140.9 4.6 14.9 374.4
Week Ago 60.3 23.1 21.2 19.1 1.3 199.3 4.9 57.7 407.9
To Date 3546.1 576.5 703.3 1320.9 66.2 8273.4 265.7 1165.4 17545.7
Year Ago 3336.9 360.4 726.5 1468.7 59.0 7495.6 243.7 2241.2 17495.8
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on more reports that Polish Wheat was being imported by east coast millers due to price. It is cheaper to buy in Europe and ship the Wheat rather than buy in the US and pay the rail freight. Bad growing conditions and bad planting conditions for Spring Wheat supported futures. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 594, 590, and 584 July, with resistance at 637, 641, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 803, 797, and 792 July, with resistance at 832, 850, and 864 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 793, 769, and 762 July, and resistance is at 815, 836, and 853 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday on follow through speculative selling. New crop months were down more as the weather is good for crop development. Old crop offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1649, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1706, 1733, and 1763 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mostly lower, but July Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday. Reports of strong planting progress and good, but dry initial development conditions were important but already part of the price structure. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for much of the next week and beyond. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 615 and 637 July. Support is at 580, 570, and 562 July, and resistance is at 600, 612, and 618 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 340 and 373 July. Support is at 326, 322, and 312 July, and resistance is at 347, 352 and 358 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday and it seemed that the funds and other speculators were happy to sell any rally attempt. Soybean Oil was higher. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is b3eing shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. The Argentine crop is now estimated at just 21 million tons. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1305, 1300, and 1288 July, and resistance is at 1348, 1360, and 1366 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 4394.00, 388.00, and 382.00 July, and resistance is at 416.00, 422.00, and 425.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4900, 5060, and 5090 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as demand improved on a weaker Ringgit. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. The weekly continuation charts show that nearest futures are now close to support levels that have held the futures market since September. Canola was lower yesterday. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Scattered showers and rains are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 690.00, 686.00, and 682.00 July, with resistance at 710.00, 720.00, and 725.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3590, 3720, and 3750 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 933,615 Tons, Up 0.7%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for May 1-25 are estimated to have risen 0.7% from the previous month to 933,615 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-25 April 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 230,520 254,223
RBD Palm Oil 69,285 88,914
RBD Palm Stearin 87,132 93,275
Crude Palm Oil 234,168 186,890
Total* 933,615 927,331
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 25
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 25, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 718.10 20.00 Jul 23 dn 3.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 726.20 40.00 Jul 23 dn 11.90
Basis: Vancouver 748.20 62.00 Jul 23 dn 11.90
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 840.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 835.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 825.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 850.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 835.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 790.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 755.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3620.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 237.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.597)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 234,447 lots, or 1.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,060 5,060 4,994 5,039 5,074 5,023 -51 182,467 113,192
Sep-23 4,810 4,813 4,768 4,800 4,827 4,788 -39 33,026 56,071
Nov-23 4,757 4,760 4,715 4,744 4,776 4,733 -43 17,634 46,206
Jan-24 4,732 4,732 4,694 4,720 4,748 4,707 -41 959 7,968
Mar-24 4,704 4,715 4,681 4,703 4,733 4,694 -39 299 5,059
May-24 4,707 4,707 4,678 4,696 4,725 4,689 -36 62 161
Corn
Turnover: 923,720 lots, or 23.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,578 2,621 2,572 2,615 2,565 2,600 35 532,811 742,979
Sep-23 2,540 2,576 2,538 2,569 2,534 2,559 25 169,735 411,016
Nov-23 2,505 2,520 2,497 2,518 2,494 2,510 16 121,440 394,402
Jan-24 2,472 2,497 2,472 2,493 2,467 2,485 18 28,558 116,235
Mar-24 2,472 2,490 2,468 2,487 2,466 2,479 13 70,286 101,309
May-24 2,477 2,487 2,466 2,485 2,463 2,479 16 890 2,278
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,372,528 lots, or 46.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,482 3,498 3,447 3,493 3,490 3,472 -18 94,556 259,278
Aug-23 3,490 3,499 3,451 3,495 3,493 3,474 -19 35,893 217,511
Sep-23 3,441 3,454 3,403 3,451 3,445 3,428 -17 1,038,700 1,366,302
Nov-23 3,433 3,439 3,392 3,435 3,432 3,415 -17 28,531 173,029
Dec-23 3,390 3,398 3,353 3,396 3,387 3,376 -11 4,109 57,968
Jan-24 3,341 3,345 3,298 3,341 3,340 3,323 -17 140,254 299,906
Mar-24 3,240 3,253 3,230 3,251 3,243 3,239 -4 17,259 47,720
May-24 3,102 3,112 3,083 3,105 3,103 3,097 -6 13,226 28,544
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,074,115 lots, or 72.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,094 7,250 7,078 7,186 7,070 7,176 106 647 2,333
Jul-23 6,972 7,088 6,942 7,002 6,906 7,010 104 60,719 117,986
Aug-23 6,816 6,926 6,782 6,868 6,746 6,860 114 13,758 110,631
Sep-23 6,740 6,854 6,704 6,816 6,658 6,784 126 921,458 561,731
Oct-23 6,702 6,802 6,668 6,752 6,622 6,740 118 14,479 65,842
Nov-23 6,672 6,768 6,644 6,760 6,590 6,710 120 15,966 47,715
Dec-23 6,650 6,754 6,618 6,750 6,560 6,696 136 10,702 19,416
Jan-24 6,616 6,748 6,602 6,748 6,550 6,690 140 36,025 60,724
Feb-24 6,632 6,768 6,632 6,726 6,570 6,722 152 8 512
Mar-24 6,668 6,768 6,640 6,760 6,560 6,732 172 54 1,439
Apr-24 6,664 6,766 6,662 6,766 6,546 6,718 172 13 73
May-24 6,610 6,746 6,610 6,732 6,562 6,690 128 286 598
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,063,809 lots, or 76.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,232 7,344 7,188 7,334 7,140 7,282 142 45,430 117,354
Aug-23 7,176 7,294 7,142 7,284 7,106 7,232 126 12,986 110,747
Sep-23 7,092 7,208 7,056 7,198 7,008 7,144 136 935,386 601,819
Nov-23 7,094 7,204 7,070 7,196 7,026 7,152 126 16,516 89,414
Dec-23 7,102 7,204 7,070 7,202 7,028 7,148 120 9,072 45,000
Jan-24 7,066 7,148 7,022 7,146 6,984 7,096 112 37,755 77,513
Mar-24 6,962 7,056 6,962 7,048 6,934 7,008 74 6,323 22,078
May-24 6,938 7,008 6,918 7,008 6,872 6,970 98 341 873
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322