Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 05/25/2023
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 24
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 81.177 million pounds, in April, 5.4% above the previous
month, and 39.2% above April 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
In thousand pounds.
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 81,177 76,986 58,331 56,836
orange juice 353,714 327,355 488,639 479,589
french fries 1,009,580 1,033,254 958,352 965,174
other potatoes 226,787 241,266 215,198 212,822
chicken rstr (whole) 12,561 12,648 12,287 13,181
ham 117,527 84,554 98,038 74,118
total pork 565,479 533,893 533,396 485,999 500,032
total beef 447,984 477,806 532,166 535,839 439,016
total red meat 1,039,569 1,039,114 1,092,792 1,048,526 963,983
total chicken 830,290 853,147 768,101 786,243
total turkey 367,952 338,731 332,513 308,087
total poultry 1,200,654 1,194,477 1,102,498 1,096,101 1,103,179
General Comments: Cotton was lower for the third day as traders worried about a fallout from the failure of Congress to reach a new debt limit ceiling. Failure to agree on a new debt ceiling increase could push the US and world economies into recession and hurt Cotton demand. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers and also noted good and improving growing conditions and average planting progress for the US crop. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas to Oklahoma and Kansas and are expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers or dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.79 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 63 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 131,200 bales this year and 84,300 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,300 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 8110 July. Support is at 81.20, 79.50, and 78.60 July, with resistance of 84.00, 84.90 and 85.60 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday and at new highs for the move. Trends are up on the daily charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 301.00 July. Support is at 280.00, 270.00, and 260.00 July, with resistance at 299.00, 305.00, and 311.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday in what appeared to be speculative short covering. Short term trends are still turning mixed in both markets. There are reports of good weather for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase over time. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take some of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.620 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 177.51 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 181.00, and 180.00 July, and resistance is at 194.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 July. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2460 July, and resistance is at 2670, 2710, and 2740 July.
General Comments: Both New York and London closed lower again yesterday, and trends remain sideways for the short term. The market is still hurt by good growing and harvesting conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. It should start being available now. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions. The ISO said that a sharp reduction for its projection for a global sugar supply surplus in 2022/23 is 850,000 tons from the 4.15 million tons seen in its previous quarterly report in February.
The cut was partly driven by downward revisions to production in India (32.8 million tons from 34.3 million) and Thailand (11.0 million tons from 12.3 million), though the ISO said the focus has now shifted to top exporter Brazil.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2490, and 2460 July and resistance is at 2660, 2680, and 2730 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 722.00, 730.00, and 733.00 August.
COCOAQuestions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mostly higher on what appeared to be speculative trading based on currency trends as the US Dollar Index made new highs for the move against a basket of currencies. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, but certified stocks are increasing in New York. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast had reached 2.030 million tons by May 21 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 5.7% from the same period last season.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.719 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2990, 2970, and 2950 July, with resistance at 3080, 3100, and 3130 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2300, and 2270 July, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.