It’s All About Weather. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/25/2023

We kickoff the day Exports Sales, Chicago Fed National Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel 2^nd Est., GDP Price Index QoQ 2^nd Est., GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2^nd Est., GDP Sales QoQ 2^nd Est., Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ 2^nd Est., Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2^nd Est., Continuing Jobless Claims, and Core PCE Prices QoQ 2^nd Est. at 7:30 A.M., Pending Home Sales MoM & YoY at 9:00 A.M., EIA Natural Gas Stocks and Fed Collins Speech at 9:30 A.M., Kansas Fed Composite Index and Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10;00 A.M., 4-Week & 8-Week Bill auction at 10:30 A.M., and 7-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M.

On the Corn Front we ended up higher in yesterday’s action with spot leading the way up 9 and change while deferred month settled 2 to 3 cents higher. Tuesday’s Crop Progress next Tuesday with dry and warm weather. Talk is completing planting and establishing a deep root system. And right now moisture and weather are key. We’re hoping for a little better Export Sales which would be a shot in the arm to the market as we move closer to the start of summertime driving season this Memorial Day Weekend. God Bless are Troops, Veterans, and First Responders. I also expect more people to drive rather than fly to their destinations. Ag report calls the Western Plains wet, heat probable in 6-15 day period. The EU and GFS models are in better agreement, with the GFS having eliminated rain chances in the 11-15 day period. The outlook remains concerning in that the return of rain and mid temps across the primary Corn Belt will be needed mid-June and onward, but model guidance maintains a period of stagnation into at least June 7-8. The outlook next week has also trended warmer, with the better performing EU model featuring max temps in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the 90’s and even the low 100’s. The coming rate of evaporation is worrisome. In the overnight electronic session the July corn is currently trading at 588 which is ¾ of a cent higher. The trading range has been 590 to 585 ½.

On the Ethanol Front the US energy information administration reported yesterday, weekly ending stocks of fuel ethanol were 5%. Fuel ethanol production averaged 983,000 barrels per day ending May 19^th, down 4,000 barrels per day (bpd) the previous week and down 31,000 (bpd) last year. Weekly ending stocks of fuel to ethanol fell to 22.041 million barrels the week ending May 19^th, down 1.15 million barrels when compared to the 23.191 million barrels when compared to the 23.191 million barrels of stocks reported the previous week and down 1.671 million barrels on the one-year. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.

Have A Great Trading day!

Dan Flynn

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374