Grains Report 05/25/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 25
For the week ended May 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -45.1 245.1 18841.4 19436.0 1551.2 2207.5
hrw 13.6 55.3 5123.2 7473.4 365.3 426.8
srw 7.5 50.2 2907.6 2870.1 272.2 802.0
hrs -5.6 62.2 5748.4 5525.5 564.8 587.0
white -60.7 77.4 4610.0 3370.7 290.1 354.9
durum 0.2 0.0 452.2 196.4 58.8 36.9
corn -75.2 52.1 37979.4 59056.0 8873.4 2752.5
soybeans 115.0 1.1 50839.9 59419.0 2940.5 2551.7
soymeal 341.3 50.6 10564.3 10521.1 2613.0 455.0
soyoil 6.2 0.0 124.8 671.3 61.9 0.6
upland cotton 131.2 84.3 12762.9 14898.8 3581.8 1608.5
pima cotton 3.3 0.0 310.5 476.1 73.7 4.7
sorghum 5.7 0.0 1645.8 6761.4 327.3 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 12.0 20.5 3.5 6.0
rice 30.3 0.0 1860.7 2687.3 409.8 91.2

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 24
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 81.177 million pounds, in April, 5.4% above the previous
month, and 39.2% above April 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Wednesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 81,177 76,986 58,331 56,836
orange juice 353,714 327,355 488,639 479,589
french fries 1,009,580 1,033,254 958,352 965,174
other potatoes 226,787 241,266 215,198 212,822
chicken rstr (whole) 12,561 12,648 12,287 13,181
ham 117,527 84,554 98,038 74,118
total pork 565,479 533,893 533,396 485,999 500,032
total beef 447,984 477,806 532,166 535,839 439,016
total red meat 1,039,569 1,039,114 1,092,792 1,048,526 963,983
total chicken 830,290 853,147 768,101 786,243
total turkey 367,952 338,731 332,513 308,087
total poultry 1,200,654 1,194,477 1,102,498 1,096,101 1,103,179
===============================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on reports that Polish Wheat was being imported by east coast millers due to price. It is cheaper to buy in Europe and ship the Wheat rather than buy in the US and pay the rail freight.. Bad growing conditions and bad planting conditions for Spring Wheat supported futures. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 594, 590, and 584 July, with resistance at 626, 641, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 807, 797, and 792 July, with resistance at 850, 864, and 873 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 793, 769, and 762 July, and resistance is at 836, 853, and 866 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday on some follow through speculative selling. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1649, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1706, 1733, and 1763 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn closing higher on ideas that the market was oversold. It appeared to be speculative short covering that hit the pits. Reports of strong planting progress and good, but dry initial development conditions were important but already part of the price structure. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for much of the next week and beyond. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 570, 562, and 552 July, and resistance is at 591, 600, and 612 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 297 July. Support is at 322, 312, and 310 July, and resistance is at 330, 334 and 340 July.

Ethanol inventories in the U.S. have fallen to their lowest level in six months in a decline exceeding analyst projections, according to the EIA. In the latest weekly report, the EIA said ethanol inventories through the week ended May 19 totaled 22.04 million barrels – down over a million barrels from last week’s total of 23.19 million barrels. It’s the lowest inventories have been since November 2022, according to EIA data. Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week had forecast inventories to land anywhere from 22.95 million barrels to 23.14 million barrels.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday and it seemed that the funds and other speculators were happy to sell after the rally early in the day. Soybean Oil was higher with the rally in Crude Oil and petroleum products futures. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is b3eing shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. The Argentine crop is now estimated at just 21 million tons. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1300, 1288, and 1276 July, and resistance is at 1348, 1360, and 1366 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 400.00, 394.00, and 388.00 July, and resistance is at 416.00, 422.00, and 425.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4900, 5060, and 5090 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as demand improved on a weaker Ringgit. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. The weekly continuation charts show that nearest futures are now close to support levels that have held the futures market since September. Canola was lower yesterday. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Scattered showers and rains are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 690.00, 686.00, and 682.00 July, with resistance at 710.00, 720.00, and 725.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3590, 3720, and 3750 August.

DJ Malaysia May 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 933,615 Tons, Up 0.7%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for May 1-25 are estimated to have risen 0.7% from the previous month to 933,615 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-25 April 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 230,520 254,223
RBD Palm Oil 69,285 88,914
RBD Palm Stearin 87,132 93,275
Crude Palm Oil 234,168 186,890
Total* 933,615 927,331
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 24
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, May 24 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for May 24, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 721.60 20.00 Jul 23 up 4.20
Basis: Thunder Bay 738.10 40.00 Jul 23 dn 3.50
Basis: Vancouver 760.10 62.00 Jul 23 up 3.50
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 835.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 810.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 845.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 820.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 790.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 755.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3630.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 237.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.623)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 198,674 lots, or 9.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,075 5,113 5,044 5,049 5,077 5,074 -3 155,842 109,594
Sep-23 4,840 4,855 4,804 4,815 4,852 4,827 -25 30,942 55,387
Nov-23 4,785 4,798 4,756 4,765 4,796 4,776 -20 11,123 45,469
Jan-24 4,745 4,769 4,731 4,743 4,768 4,748 -20 511 7,729
Mar-24 4,739 4,754 4,717 4,729 4,753 4,733 -20 222 4,961
May-24 4,730 4,730 4,725 4,725 4,757 4,725 -32 34 117
Corn
Turnover: 797,641 lots, or 20.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,565 2,578 2,550 2,578 2,568 2,565 -3 349,957 750,566
Sep-23 2,532 2,546 2,523 2,540 2,545 2,534 -11 149,553 404,658
Nov-23 2,503 2,508 2,480 2,501 2,509 2,494 -15 135,029 398,447
Jan-24 2,476 2,484 2,449 2,478 2,482 2,467 -15 50,137 114,317
Mar-24 2,468 2,480 2,447 2,473 2,474 2,466 -8 112,117 100,548
May-24 2,468 2,479 2,446 2,473 2,473 2,463 -10 848 1,924
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,259,579 lots, or 43.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,505 3,523 3,463 3,478 3,520 3,490 -30 108,236 267,356
Aug-23 3,498 3,525 3,467 3,483 3,516 3,493 -23 29,956 217,353
Sep-23 3,446 3,476 3,423 3,434 3,469 3,445 -24 979,460 1,397,386
Nov-23 3,432 3,458 3,413 3,423 3,450 3,432 -18 28,519 172,956
Dec-23 3,383 3,413 3,374 3,381 3,406 3,387 -19 2,466 57,682
Jan-24 3,345 3,364 3,328 3,336 3,363 3,340 -23 88,835 324,741
Mar-24 3,247 3,261 3,233 3,241 3,256 3,243 -13 15,013 46,362
May-24 3,104 3,115 3,095 3,098 3,116 3,103 -13 7,094 27,157
Palm Oil
Turnover: 966,410 lots, or 64.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,086 7,140 7,028 7,098 7,124 7,070 -54 880 2,455
Jul-23 6,896 6,984 6,854 6,960 6,944 6,906 -38 53,440 119,828
Aug-23 6,730 6,820 6,698 6,796 6,782 6,746 -36 19,078 110,422
Sep-23 6,630 6,754 6,592 6,726 6,676 6,658 -18 821,321 578,319
Oct-23 6,606 6,708 6,554 6,682 6,628 6,622 -6 17,780 63,746
Nov-23 6,542 6,678 6,526 6,654 6,602 6,590 -12 13,785 46,652
Dec-23 6,530 6,654 6,508 6,620 6,578 6,560 -18 10,508 18,861
Jan-24 6,520 6,646 6,480 6,612 6,558 6,550 -8 29,375 58,348
Feb-24 6,570 6,570 6,570 6,570 6,580 6,570 -10 1 518
Mar-24 6,514 6,644 6,514 6,642 6,564 6,560 -4 9 1,448
Apr-24 6,518 6,576 6,518 6,576 6,566 6,546 -20 2 76
May-24 6,506 6,648 6,496 6,610 6,528 6,562 34 231 517
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 945,422 lots, or 66.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,114 7,228 7,082 7,208 7,178 7,140 -38 43,514 117,774
Aug-23 7,068 7,182 7,038 7,160 7,132 7,106 -26 9,849 108,775
Sep-23 7,000 7,090 6,944 7,074 7,050 7,008 -42 835,083 622,772
Nov-23 6,998 7,100 6,960 7,082 7,058 7,026 -32 12,563 88,943
Dec-23 7,028 7,102 6,970 7,088 7,060 7,028 -32 7,421 43,290
Jan-24 6,970 7,050 6,920 7,032 7,020 6,984 -36 28,746 79,837
Mar-24 6,918 6,996 6,882 6,968 6,976 6,934 -42 7,945 21,313
May-24 6,880 6,938 6,840 6,920 6,912 6,872 -40 301 785
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322