Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in correction trading for the second day. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers amid good and improving growing conditions and average planting progress for the US crop. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas and are expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers or dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.46 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 63 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8360 and 8110 July. Support is at 83.90, 83.00, and 82.00 July, with resistance of 85.60, 86.10 and 87.00 July.
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher yesterday and trends are up again on the daily charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to work higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 301.00 July. Support is at 280.00, 270.00, and 260.00 July, with resistance at 287.00, 293.00, and 299.00 July.
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed much lower yesterday in speculative trading as funds decided to sell. Short term trends are turning mixed in both markets. There are reports of good weather for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase over time. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now and is expected to take some of the demand. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.620 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 176.88 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 181.00, and 180.00 July, and resistance is at 194.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2720 July. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2460 July, and resistance is at 2670, 2710, and 2740 July.
General Comments: Both New York and London closed lower yesterday, and trends remain sideways for the short term. The market is still hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. It should start being available now. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions. The ISO said that a sharp reduction for its projection for a global sugar supply surplus in 2022/23 is 850,000 tons from the 4.15 million tons seen in its previous quarterly report in February.
The cut was partly driven by downward revisions to production in India (32.8 million tons from 34.3 million) and Thailand (11.0 million tons from 12.3 million), though the ISO said the focus has now shifted to top exporter Brazil.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2490, and 2460 July and resistance is at 2660, 2680, and 2730 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 722.00, 730.00, and 733.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on what appeared to be speculative profit taking after the recent rally. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue, but certified stocks are increasing in New York. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast had reached 2.030 million tons by May 21 since the start of the season on Oct. 1, down 5.7% from the same period last season.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.718 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3080, 3110, and 3180 July. Support is at 2990, 2970, and 2950 July, with resistance at 3080, 3100, and 3130 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2300, and 2270 July, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.