Grains Report 05/24/2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on what appeared to be speculative short covering on ideas that futures were cheap enough for now. Bad growing conditions and bad planting conditions for Spring Wheat supported futures. The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 594, 590, and 584 July, with resistance at 626, 641, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 807, 797, and 792 July, with resistance at 850, 864, and 873 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 793, 769, and 762 July, and resistance is at 836, 853, and 866 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday on some follow through speculative selling. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1649, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1706, 1733, and 1763 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.94 11.60 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.71 12.31 0.00
Brokens 11.01 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn closing higher on ideas that the market was oversold. Reports of strong planting progress and good, but dry initial development conditions were important but already part of the price structure. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for much of the next week and beyond. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 562, 552, and 548 July, and resistance is at 582, 591, and 600 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 297 July. Support is at 312, 310, and 300 July, and resistance is at 330, 334 and 340 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday and it seemed that the funds nd other speculators were happy to sell after the rally during the previous day. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is b3eing shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. The Argentine crop is now estimated at just 21 million tons. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1300, 1288, and 1276 July, and resistance is at 1348, 1360, and 1366 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 406.00, 400.00, and 394.00 July, and resistance is at 416.00, 422.00, and 425.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4900, 5060, and 5090 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on ideas of increasing supplies against slack demand. Ideas are that world stocks are building for vegetable oils. India recently cut its base import price and Chinese economic data released last week showed less activity than expected. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. The weekly continuation charts show that nearest futures are now close to support levels that have held the futures market since September. Canola was mixed to lower yesterday, with July closing form. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Scattered showers and rains are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 690.00, 686.00, and 682.00 July, with resistance at 710.00, 720.00, and 725.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3590, 3720, and 3750 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 23
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 23, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 717.40 20.00 Jul 23 dn 5.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 741.60 40.00 Jul 23 up 4.20
Basis: Vancouver 756.60 55.00 Jul 23 up 4.20
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 820.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 807.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 800.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 830.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 817.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 810.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 790.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 750.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3600.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 235.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5935)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 227,620 lots, or 11.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,069 5,112 5,039 5,094 5,047 5,077 30 171,666 112,616
Sep-23 4,857 4,878 4,827 4,840 4,841 4,852 11 39,782 52,786
Nov-23 4,805 4,812 4,774 4,785 4,783 4,796 13 15,119 43,770
Jan-24 4,781 4,783 4,749 4,755 4,757 4,768 11 799 7,647
Mar-24 4,752 4,766 4,733 4,738 4,742 4,753 11 223 4,977
May-24 4,760 4,850 4,730 4,735 4,755 4,757 2 31 87
Corn
Turnover: 719,649 lots, or 18.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,588 2,592 2,550 2,557 2,572 2,568 -4 387,383 763,233
Sep-23 2,568 2,570 2,530 2,537 2,550 2,545 -5 121,425 400,181
Nov-23 2,530 2,533 2,492 2,500 2,519 2,509 -10 120,048 389,704
Jan-24 2,500 2,505 2,467 2,476 2,495 2,482 -13 26,341 99,439
Mar-24 2,486 2,492 2,458 2,469 2,485 2,474 -11 63,678 85,970
May-24 2,491 2,491 2,458 2,468 2,485 2,473 -12 774 1,709
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,179,292 lots, or 40.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,559 3,559 3,483 3,493 3,532 3,520 -12 113,839 276,018
Aug-23 3,541 3,553 3,484 3,496 3,531 3,516 -15 27,722 216,142
Sep-23 3,500 3,509 3,438 3,446 3,488 3,469 -19 879,658 1,421,308
Nov-23 3,479 3,482 3,420 3,429 3,463 3,450 -13 30,520 172,120
Dec-23 3,426 3,436 3,381 3,386 3,425 3,406 -19 5,093 57,280
Jan-24 3,388 3,393 3,335 3,342 3,378 3,363 -15 99,242 323,910
Mar-24 3,280 3,281 3,239 3,247 3,270 3,256 -14 14,564 44,107
May-24 3,136 3,137 3,101 3,104 3,132 3,116 -16 8,654 25,987
Palm Oil
Turnover: 918,687 lots, or 61.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,100 7,190 7,032 7,044 7,100 7,124 24 1,791 3,020
Jul-23 6,954 7,006 6,858 6,876 6,962 6,944 -18 46,012 118,690
Aug-23 6,826 6,838 6,698 6,710 6,790 6,782 -8 13,939 108,576
Sep-23 6,688 6,738 6,584 6,608 6,690 6,676 -14 797,897 579,886
Oct-23 6,648 6,688 6,542 6,564 6,650 6,628 -22 12,882 62,273
Nov-23 6,618 6,654 6,514 6,542 6,628 6,602 -26 12,207 45,830
Dec-23 6,628 6,632 6,498 6,516 6,606 6,578 -28 9,321 18,250
Jan-24 6,578 6,616 6,480 6,500 6,578 6,558 -20 24,390 54,129
Feb-24 6,572 6,614 6,514 6,514 6,622 6,580 -42 15 519
Mar-24 6,584 6,626 6,512 6,532 6,640 6,564 -76 38 1,449
Apr-24 6,608 6,630 6,520 6,528 6,630 6,566 -64 17 76
May-24 6,590 6,604 6,488 6,518 6,592 6,528 -64 178 512
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 848,661 lots, or 59.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,198 7,230 7,092 7,114 7,188 7,178 -10 40,246 119,435
Aug-23 7,192 7,192 7,048 7,068 7,148 7,132 -16 7,157 107,546
Sep-23 7,102 7,108 6,966 6,988 7,074 7,050 -24 753,051 630,513
Nov-23 7,084 7,112 6,978 6,994 7,084 7,058 -26 11,764 87,219
Dec-23 7,108 7,112 6,982 6,998 7,092 7,060 -32 6,566 42,297
Jan-24 7,062 7,072 6,934 6,954 7,050 7,020 -30 24,054 81,626
Mar-24 7,008 7,026 6,894 6,906 7,008 6,976 -32 5,499 19,858
May-24 6,950 6,968 6,858 6,870 6,944 6,912 -32 324 823
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322