Grains Report 05/23/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 22
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon May 22, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 18, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/18/2023 05/11/2023 05/19/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,156
CORN 1,323,117 1,173,783 1,752,461 27,374,728 40,895,834
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,686 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 116,048 52,755 199,288 1,635,898 5,976,129
SOYBEANS 155,051 186,787 582,340 48,199,475 49,146,143
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 2,508 2,260
WHEAT 407,682 263,439 275,541 19,143,446 19,653,136
Total 2,001,898 1,676,764 2,809,630 96,365,095 115,684,582
———————————————————————–
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 21-May 14-May 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 45 35 52 50
Corn Planted 81 65 69 75
Corn Emerged 52 30 35 45
Soybeans Planted 66 49 47 52
Soybeans Emerged 36 20 16 24
Sorghum Planted 33 28 32 33
Rice Planted 90 83 89 88
Rice Emerged 76 65 64 66
Peanuts Planted 55 37 62 61
Sugarbeets Planted 95 79 48 84
Sunflowers Planted 5 2 4 10
Oats Planted 82 70 76 85
Oats Emerged 65 53 56 67
Barley Planted 70 51 70 80
Barley Emerged 33 16 45 50
Winter Wheat Headed 61 49 61 61
Spring Wheat Planted 64 40 40 73
Spring Wheat Emerged 32 13 27 40

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 18 22 29 26 5
Winter Wheat Last Week 10 23 30 25 4
Winter Wheat Last Year 22 18 32 24 3

Rice This Week 0 4 23 60 13
Rice Last Week 0 4 26 59 11
Rice Last Year 0 2 28 60 10
5 9 20 53 5
Oats This Week
Oats Last Week 15 11 29 40 5
Oats Last Year

Pasture and Range This Week 10 19 34 31 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 12 21 33 28 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 24 26 28 20 2

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher after trading lower much of the day.er last week, The weather is still in focus here and around the world. Scattered showers are being reported in southern areas. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, but this could soon change if the Spring Wheat production is not good. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Winter Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see isolated showers. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 596, 584, and 572 July, with resistance at 626, 641, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 788 July. Support is at 822, 797, and 792 July, with resistance at 840, 864, and 873 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 789 July. Support is at 798, 794, and 769 July, and resistance is at 816, 836, and 843 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week in response to negative weekly export sales and a rally in the US Dollar Index seen on Thursday. Some of the gains in the Dollar were given back on Friday. Cancellations came from Iraq and Japan and buying came mostly from Haiti and Canada. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1660, 1649, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1706, 1733, and 1763 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn closing higher on ideas that the market was oversold. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for much of the next week and beyond. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 526 July. Support is at 552, 548, and 542 July, and resistance is at 582, 591, and 600 July. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 314 and 297 July. Support is at 310, 300, and 294 July, and resistance is at 330, 34734 and 340 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday in recovery trading from oversold conditions. Planting weather remains very good with little if any precipitation in the forecast for the next week to 10 days, Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is b3eing shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil is still selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. The Argentine crop is now estimated at just 21 million tons. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1300, 1288, and 1276 July, and resistance is at 1348, 1360, and 1366 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 407.00 July. Support is at 406.00, 400.00, and 394.00 July, and resistance is at 416.00, 422.00, and 425.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4900, 5060, and 5090 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on Chicago price action and on ideas of increasing supplies against slack demand. Ideas are that world stocks are building for vegetable oils. India recently cut its base import price and Chinese economic data released last week showed less activity than expected. In Malaysia, April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. The weekly continuation charts show that nearest futures are now close to support levels that have held the futures market since September. Canola was closed yesterday. Trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins, but export demand is questioned, especially since the release of the weaker than expected Chinese economic data last week. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Scattered showers and rains are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 694.00 and 684.00 July. Support is at 701.00, 696.00, and 687.00 July, with resistance at 720.00, 735.00, and 743.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3290 and 3140 August. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3590, 3720, and 3750 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 722.90 20.00 Jul 2023 dn 11.20
Track Thunder Bay 737.40 40.00 Jul 2023 dn 5.50
Track Vancouver 752.40 55.00 Jul 2023 dn 5.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 845.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 800.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 855.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 815.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 810.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 800.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3650.00 -70.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 234.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5695)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 216,453 lots, or 1.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,067 5,076 5,006 5,069 5,061 5,047 -14 162,160 111,677
Sep-23 4,848 4,862 4,810 4,857 4,857 4,841 -16 39,894 50,068
Nov-23 4,783 4,800 4,754 4,794 4,781 4,783 2 13,319 42,936
Jan-24 4,753 4,776 4,724 4,769 4,758 4,757 -1 641 7,567
Mar-24 4,741 4,758 4,704 4,747 4,748 4,742 -6 414 4,973
May-24 4,758 4,762 4,744 4,761 4,740 4,755 15 25 87
Corn
Turnover: 588,430 lots, or 15.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,555 2,585 2,553 2,580 2,563 2,572 9 319,567 779,131
Sep-23 2,530 2,560 2,529 2,560 2,542 2,550 8 111,149 384,939
Nov-23 2,500 2,528 2,500 2,524 2,512 2,519 7 75,770 377,212
Jan-24 2,490 2,503 2,484 2,495 2,492 2,495 3 19,501 94,784
Mar-24 2,484 2,494 2,478 2,485 2,482 2,485 3 61,850 82,435
May-24 2,481 2,492 2,477 2,483 2,479 2,485 6 593 1,338
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,393,401 lots, or 48.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,517 3,565 3,492 3,536 3,498 3,532 34 130,158 281,005
Aug-23 3,493 3,559 3,492 3,534 3,497 3,531 34 35,712 215,627
Sep-23 3,455 3,515 3,442 3,488 3,443 3,488 45 1,045,732 1,419,076
Nov-23 3,448 3,487 3,423 3,464 3,431 3,463 32 28,762 170,504
Dec-23 3,397 3,443 3,386 3,424 3,397 3,425 28 10,384 57,157
Jan-24 3,351 3,400 3,339 3,376 3,352 3,378 26 116,945 323,061
Mar-24 3,265 3,288 3,249 3,273 3,245 3,270 25 16,722 42,456
May-24 3,112 3,149 3,112 3,129 3,120 3,132 12 8,986 23,009
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,012,773 lots, or 67.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,090 7,186 7,040 7,082 7,210 7,100 -110 2,092 4,093
Jul-23 6,890 7,048 6,886 6,950 6,954 6,962 8 45,756 119,852
Aug-23 6,756 6,876 6,732 6,782 6,782 6,790 8 14,122 107,160
Sep-23 6,678 6,774 6,636 6,672 6,696 6,690 -6 881,412 570,702
Oct-23 6,632 6,732 6,606 6,616 6,656 6,650 -6 12,946 61,380
Nov-23 6,606 6,700 6,574 6,594 6,614 6,628 14 12,985 44,854
Dec-23 6,576 6,672 6,558 6,578 6,594 6,606 12 9,429 17,524
Jan-24 6,584 6,652 6,536 6,556 6,582 6,578 -4 33,777 52,578
Feb-24 6,630 6,634 6,618 6,620 6,592 6,622 30 6 509
Mar-24 6,612 6,672 6,584 6,600 6,576 6,640 64 90 1,462
Apr-24 6,758 6,758 6,564 6,616 6,606 6,630 24 9 72
May-24 6,566 6,648 6,550 6,558 6,580 6,592 12 149 432
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 956,189 lots, or 67.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,168 7,258 7,138 7,196 7,230 7,188 -42 51,593 121,686
Aug-23 7,174 7,216 7,102 7,158 7,182 7,148 -34 14,721 107,030
Sep-23 7,060 7,142 7,018 7,076 7,116 7,074 -42 835,857 615,857
Nov-23 7,072 7,148 7,036 7,084 7,110 7,084 -26 12,217 86,987
Dec-23 7,090 7,150 7,038 7,088 7,122 7,092 -30 7,191 41,917
Jan-24 7,050 7,106 6,996 7,042 7,082 7,050 -32 26,689 80,483
Mar-24 6,992 7,066 6,962 7,002 7,048 7,008 -40 7,607 19,091
May-24 6,910 6,996 6,902 6,942 6,960 6,944 -16 314 654
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322