Softs Report 05/22/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week and closed at new weekly highs for the move. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers on news from Tuesday of weaker than expected Chinese economic data and a weaker USDA export sales report on Thursday. The US Dollar was sharply higher Thursday to keep demand ideas down, but gave back part of the rally on Friday. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas and are expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.90 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 63 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 86.00, 85.20, and 84.90 July, with resistance of 88.00, 88.60 and 88.80 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 16, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 231,305
: Positions :
: 29,259 44,346 57,416 62,264 102,920 70,107 15,060 219,046 219,742: 12,258 11,562
: Changes from: May 9, 2023 (Change in open interest: 10,963) :
: 1,118 522 3,871 6,645 6,722 -458 224 11,176 11,339: -213 -376
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 19.2 24.8 26.9 44.5 30.3 6.5 94.7 95.0: 5.3 5.0
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 79 94 51 56 48 24 224 212:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher last week and futures are holding to a trading range again. Trends are trying to turn u[p after the price action on Friday. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to work higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 249.00, 239.00, and 237.00 July, with resistance at 260.00, 266.00, and 272.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 16, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 10,602 :
: Positions :
: 1,297 5,671 1,255 55 50 3,558 429 11 829 661 1,961 :
: Changes from: May 9, 2023 :
: 299 47 -9 -66 0 -400 -66 9 10 -10 137 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 53.5 11.8 0.5 0.5 33.6 4.0 0.1 7.8 6.2 18.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 11 9 4 . . 18 . 4 8 12 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed much higher Friday in speculative trading as short term trends are now up in both markets. There are reports of good weather for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest has started and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase over time. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Robusta market is especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement. Conab in Brazil estimated production this year at 54.7 million bags, from 54.9 million in January and 50.9 million last year. Arabica production was estimated at 37.9 million bags, from 37.4 million in January and 32.7 million last year. Robusta production is estimated at 16.8 million bags, from 17.5 million in Jqanuary and 18.2 million last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.629 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 177.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 199.00 July. Support is at 187.00, 183.00, and 181.00 July, and resistance is at 196.00, 198.00 and 205.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2610 and 2720 July. Support is at 2530, 2500, and 2460 July, and resistance is at 2620, 2650, and 2680 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 16, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 227,665
: Positions :
: 32,732 19,854 61,726 53,208 127,545 72,108 11,827 219,774 220,952: 7,891 6,713
: Changes from: May 9, 2023 (Change in open interest: -2,138) :
: 414 -560 -2,769 -543 947 769 457 -2,129 -1,925: -9 -213
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 8.7 27.1 23.4 56.0 31.7 5.2 96.5 97.1: 3.5 2.9
: Total Traders: 360 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 96 77 111 107 116 51 21 310 278:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/16/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
129,559 44,584 91,367 3,830 5,012 2,805
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.4% 70.5% 3.0% 3.9% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 43 43 7 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
44,647 4,523 9,262 6,275 1,401 10,392
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
34.5% 3.5% 7.1% 4.8% 1.1% 8.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
55 8 13 15 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,764 4,797
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.0% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: Both New York and London closed lower for the week, and trends remain sideways for the short term. The market is still hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. It should start becoming available soon. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2550, 2490, and 2460 July and resistance is at 2660, 2680, and 2730 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 722.00, 730.00, and 733.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 16, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,258,695
: Positions :
: 219,065 54,950 326,779 378,250 738,289 240,192 95,856 1,164,286 1,215,874: 94,409 42,822
: Changes from: May 9, 2023 (Change in open interest: -7,939) :
: -1,457 -937 -3,666 286 3,331 1,657 -3,975 -3,181 -5,246: -4,759 -2,693
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.4 4.4 26.0 30.1 58.7 19.1 7.6 92.5 96.6: 7.5 3.4
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 32 81 69 77 42 23 238 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/16/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
83,334 35,265 62,341 6,950 4,178 1,420
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 42.3% 74.8% 8.3% 5.0% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
126 37 43 9 3 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
25,835 3,525 3,895 1,394 1,676 3,465
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
31.0% 4.2% 4.7% 1.7% 2.0% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
41 9 21 7 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,110 2,834
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.1% 3.4%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and at new highs for the move on the daily charts. Ideas of tight supplies th698remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.698 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3080, 3110, and 3180 July. Support is at 2990, 2970, and 2950 July, with resistance at 3070, 3100, and 3130 July. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 2350, 2300, and 2270 July, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2470 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 16, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 419,903
: Positions :
: 101,010 62,457 132,585 109,530 180,499 61,472 34,095 404,597 409,636: 15,307 10,268
: Changes from: May 9, 2023 (Change in open interest: 4,170) :
: 239 1,422 4,586 -973 -431 -212 -1,438 3,640 4,139: 530 31
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.1 14.9 31.6 26.1 43.0 14.6 8.1 96.4 97.6: 3.6 2.4
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 61 87 41 42 30 15 215 164:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/16/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
394,590 145,349 253,624 31,397 29,422 32,590
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 36.8% 64.3% 8.0% 7.5% 8.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
174 45 44 17 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
98,326 5,649 23,044 16,549 5,327 42,399
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.9% 1.4% 5.8% 4.2% 1.4% 10.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
51 11 25 20 9 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,936 2,535
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322