About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday after trading higher for the first part of the session. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers on news from Tuesday of weaker than expected Chinese economic data and a weaker USDSA export sales report on Thursday. The US Dollar was sharply higher yesterday to keep demand ideas down. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas and ar expected to be beneficial. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 82.95 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 63 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with no objectives. Support is at 85.20, 84.90, and 83.00 July, with resistance of 87.40, 88.60 and 88.80 July.

DJ On-Call Cotton – May 18
As of May 12. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 23 26,802 28,502 -1,700 15,190 15,321 -131
Oct 23 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 23 23,464 21,843 1,621 26,462 25,038 1,424
Mar 24 3,449 3,249 200 2,878 2,671 207
May 24 2,305 2,201 104 200 200 0
Jul 24 1,578 1,405 173 374 374 0
Dec 24 3,184 2,990 194 17,022 15,367 1,655
Mar 25 43 40 3 0 0 0
May 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
Jul 25 26 26 0 0 0 0
Dec 25 110 0 110 0 0 0
Total 60,987 60,282 705 62,126 58,971 3,155
Open Open Change
Int Int
Jul 23 85,796 87,459 -1,663
Oct 23 22 23 -1
Dec 23 71,041 66,428 4,613
Mar 24 10,471 9,661 810
May 24 4,444 4,050 394
Jul 24 2,654 2,436 218
Dec 24 6,700 6,651 49
Mar 25 3 3 0
May 25 0 0 0
Jul 25 0 0 0
Dec 25 0 0 0
Total 181,131 176,711 4,420

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and futures are holding to a trading range again. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to work higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 249.00, 239.00, and 237.00 July, with resistance at 260.00, 266.00, and 272.00 July.

General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed much higher yesterday in speculative trading. New York felt roasters leave the market on the rally, but London extended its supply based rally for another day. There are reports of good weather for Arabica production in Brazil with high production expectations. The Arabica harvest is now just a few weeks away and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase at that time. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Robusta market is especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam and Indonesia are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement. Conab in Brazil estimated production this year at 54.7 million bags, from 54.9 million in January and 50.9 million last year. Arabica production was estimated at 37.9 million bags, from 37.4 million in January and 32.7 million last year. Robusta production is estimated at 16.8 million bags, from 17.5 million in Jqanuary and 18.2 million last year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.629 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 177.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 3 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 667 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 181.00, 180.00, and 177.00 July, and resistance is at 190.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2610 and 2720 July. Support is at 2500, 2470, and 2450 July, and resistance is at 2590, 2620, and 2650 July.

General Comments: Both New York and London closed lower one more time yesterday, and trends remain sideways or are turning down for the short term. The market is still hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. It should start becoming available soon. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2370 and 2340 July. Support is at 2490, 2460, and 2360 July and resistance is at 2600, 2660, and 2680 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 722.00, 730.00, and 733.00 August.

General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed higher and at new highs for the move in currency related trading, with the US Dollar Index sharply higher. Ideas of tight supplies that remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.702 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2970, 2950, and 2920 July, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3070 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2380 July. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2230 July, with resistance at 2350, 2380, and 2410 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322