Grains Report 05/19/2023

DJ Global Grains Production Forecast To Hit All-time Peak in 2023-24
By Yusuf Khan
Global production of wheat, corn, barley and other grains is forecast to hit an all time high in the forthcoming season, as strong supplies of corn in particular drive food production to record levels.
The International Grains Council in its May report projected that 2.294 billion metric tons of grains would be produced in the 2023-24 season. That is up from a forecast of 2.254 billion tons for the 2022-23 season, which is currently drawing to a close, and up from the record set in 2021-22 at 2.293 billion tons.
Much of the boost in output is expected to come from higher corn production, with the 2022-23 season having seen a 2% drop on year due to droughts in Argentina and Europe. In the forthcoming season, corn production is expected to hit 1.217 billion tons, up from 1.153 billion tons in 2022-23.
Meanwhile, wheat production is expected to normalize after seeing huge bumps in output from Australia and Russia last year. 2023-24’s output is expected to stand at 783 million tons, down from 803 million tons. By comparison, 781 million tons were produced in 2021-22.
Rice production is expected to hit 521 million tons in 2023-24, up from 509 million tons. Soybean output meanwhile is expected to grow to 403 million tons from 369 million tons.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 18
Winnipeg — The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the period that ended May 14, 2023. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Wheat Durum Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 1974.5 334.5 327.6 416.3 51.4 965.3 239.5 299.9 5047.2
Week Ago 2171.4 377.8 364.9 420.4 52.1 1130.9 254.2 321.7 5548.6
Year Ago 2699.7 945.3 333.5 326.5 54.6 1557.2 382.7 195.7 6910.3
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 125.6 27.3 30.9 37.2 3.8 194.8 8.6 1.1 452.7
Week Ago 214.5 53.2 50.9 68.6 3.2 198.6 24.7 2.3 659.4
To Date 18406.9 4479.0 2082.3 4035.5 145.4 15097.3 2354.3 348.3 50162.8
Year Ago 12431.1 2068.2 1640.3 3263.4 185.7 12250.3 1692.3 594.5 36459.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 360.5 97.6 0.1 52.0 0.0 166.5 12.3 91.6 844.3
Week Ago 438.1 84.8 40.5 102.6 0.0 113.4 25.8 87.6 989.4
To Date 18776.8 5156.4 299.7 2465.1 6.5 7741.3 1707.8 1789.9 43465.1
Year Ago 11624.1 2487.7 166.3 1870.5 27.0 5213.9 1056.8 1524.4 29029.9
EXPORTS
This Week 372.5 57.5 44.3 20.0 0.5 119.0 19.3 94.7 733.3
Week Ago 334.3 89.6 58.4 90.7 0.6 23.8 50.7 82.3 826.7
To Date 15981.3 4381.1 1191.1 2609.7 41.1 6894.9 1643.9 1540.4 38663.0
Year Ago 9038.3 2000.1 935.0 1822.4 73.0 4561.8 1051.0 1303.1 24247.0
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 60.3 23.1 21.2 19.1 1.3 199.3 4.9 57.7 407.9
Week Ago 98.3 2.7 10.8 26.9 1.1 98.4 7.8 14.9 281.0
To Date 3437.1 567.3 690.6 1264.1 64.8 8132.4 261.3 1150.5 17168.2
Year Ago 3226.4 353.4 708.3 1448.3 57.6 7338.6 238.2 2149.0 17063.1
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed May 1 96.7 95.9-97.2
Placed in April 95.9 90.5-99.6
Marketed in April 90.0 89.0-90.5
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
May 1 in April in April
Allegiant Commodity Group 96.5 96.1 90.5
Allendale Inc. 97.1 97.5 90.0
HedgersEdge 97.0 96.0 89.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 96.7 97.6 90.0
Midwest Market Solutions 97.2 96.2 89.2
NFC Markets 95.9 91.8 89.8
Texas A&M Extension 97.0 99.6 90.3
US Commodities 96.0 90.5 90.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday, with the big selling seen in KC and Minneapolis markets. The US Dollar was sharply higher yesterday and the weekly export sales report showed negative net sales. Support came in part in reaction to the USDA production estimates released on Friday. Turkey said Thursday that the grain deal is extended for 60 days and this news was later confirmed by Russia and Ukraine. Uncertain weather helped support Kansas City and Minneapolis as well. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Weak Chinese economic data released early this week hurt the price action and caused speculative selling. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 606, 596, and 584 July, with resistance at 626, 641, and 664 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 834 and 788 July. Support is at 846, 838, and 832 July, with resistance at 883, 902, and 912 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 822 and 789 July. Support is at 815, 810, and 798 July, and resistance is at 836, 843, and 850 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower in range trading yesterday in response to negative weekly export sales and a rally in the US Dollar Index. Cancellations came from Iraq and Japan and buying came mostly from Haiti and Canada. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1704 and 1881 July. Support is at 1731, 1726, and 1712 July and resistance is at 1763, 1780, and 1799 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed lower yesterday, with nearby months of Corn closing lower but new crop months a little higher. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action as did negative weekly export sales and a strong rally in the US Dollar. Chinese economic data was released earlier this week and was worse than expected, so there is now new doubt as to how much the Chinese will buy and import this year. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for much of next week, but showers are possible again this weekend. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 526 July. Support is at 548, 542, and 536 July, and resistance is at 562, 569, and 572 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 330, 322, and 310 July, and resistance is at 340, 347, and 352 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher yesterday, but Soybean Meal was lower. Speculators are still bearish and chart trends are still down on selling tied to the release of Chinese economic data on Wednesday, the cancellation of Chinese Corn purchases here, and on good planting weather. Speculators also sold due to the strong rally seen in the US Dollar. The Chinese economy is in much worse shape than anyone thought, and the data implied that China will probably take less. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is b3eing shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1322 July. Support is at 1334, 1312, and 1300 July, and resistance is at 1360, 1366, and 1384 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 407.00 July. Support is at 411.00, 406.00, and 400.00 July, and resistance is at 425.00, 437.00, and 442.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4880, 5060, and 5090 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on Chicago price action and on some speculative short covering on ideas that prices are cheaop enough to create new demand. Ideas are that world stocks are building for vegetable oils. April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday on demand concerns and despite dry conditions for planting in the Prairies. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 694.00 and 684.00 July. Support is at 701.00, 696.00, and 687.00 July, with resistance at 720.00, 735.00, and 743.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3290 and 3140 August. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3450, 3590, and 3720 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 18
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 734.10 20.00 Jul 2023 dn 15.10
Track Thunder Bay 742.90 40.00 Jul 2023 dn 11.20
Track Vancouver 757.90 55.00 Jul 2023 dn 11.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oi
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 832.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 820.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 880.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 842.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 830.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 830.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 775.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3750.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 238.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5285)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 251,419 lots, or 12.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,078 5,116 5,032 5,050 5,059 5,073 14 189,300 121,894
Sep-23 4,876 4,939 4,850 4,862 4,893 4,892 -1 39,010 44,776
Nov-23 4,803 4,850 4,767 4,781 4,808 4,805 -3 21,852 43,133
Jan-24 4,779 4,825 4,745 4,754 4,779 4,785 6 861 7,208
Mar-24 4,769 4,815 4,736 4,749 4,773 4,776 3 368 4,911
May-24 4,760 4,782 4,724 4,734 4,757 4,753 -4 28 57
Corn
Turnover: 529,271 lots, or 13.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,536 2,551 2,534 2,547 2,540 2,542 2 303,536 792,438
Sep-23 2,518 2,527 2,508 2,521 2,520 2,517 -3 97,399 373,499
Nov-23 2,483 2,497 2,478 2,492 2,489 2,488 -1 66,668 372,837
Jan-24 2,465 2,476 2,459 2,471 2,470 2,468 -2 13,805 93,791
Mar-24 2,462 2,469 2,453 2,464 2,463 2,460 -3 47,494 75,581
May-24 2,461 2,475 2,454 2,463 2,465 2,462 -3 369 832
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,640,288 lots, or 56.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,568 3,599 3,509 3,515 3,559 3,558 -1 139,927 294,531
Aug-23 3,551 3,592 3,508 3,512 3,555 3,559 4 42,573 210,470
Sep-23 3,473 3,515 3,450 3,453 3,476 3,483 7 1,170,725 1,416,910
Nov-23 3,457 3,499 3,441 3,446 3,464 3,466 2 34,656 169,963
Dec-23 3,396 3,433 3,392 3,406 3,403 3,416 13 14,788 55,097
Jan-24 3,341 3,380 3,335 3,353 3,345 3,362 17 192,122 333,825
Mar-24 3,210 3,280 3,208 3,240 3,218 3,238 20 32,140 42,694
May-24 3,118 3,144 3,110 3,135 3,116 3,129 13 13,357 19,719
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,092,570 lots, or 73.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,174 7,244 7,152 7,230 7,254 7,194 -60 13,412 12,520
Jul-23 6,998 7,082 6,952 7,032 7,072 7,008 -64 52,310 123,304
Aug-23 6,808 6,912 6,778 6,864 6,878 6,836 -42 14,054 103,214
Sep-23 6,680 6,800 6,654 6,766 6,734 6,722 -12 960,039 568,129
Oct-23 6,648 6,764 6,634 6,724 6,698 6,692 -6 11,733 58,030
Nov-23 6,610 6,734 6,608 6,698 6,666 6,668 2 10,019 42,225
Dec-23 6,590 6,714 6,586 6,668 6,638 6,648 10 5,857 15,925
Jan-24 6,582 6,698 6,568 6,648 6,612 6,622 10 24,773 42,852
Feb-24 6,640 6,724 6,640 6,724 6,642 6,680 38 3 513
Mar-24 6,620 6,716 6,620 6,698 6,672 6,666 -6 10 1,359
Apr-24 6,596 6,708 6,596 6,708 6,672 6,654 -18 29 70
May-24 6,536 6,704 6,532 6,640 6,604 6,610 6 331 300
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,082,401 lots, or 77.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,238 7,356 7,222 7,284 7,270 7,288 18 45,475 126,387
Aug-23 7,188 7,312 7,176 7,246 7,228 7,240 12 9,767 103,863
Sep-23 7,120 7,238 7,102 7,182 7,146 7,168 22 965,622 629,383
Nov-23 7,120 7,246 7,114 7,190 7,156 7,176 20 16,221 82,819
Dec-23 7,134 7,256 7,122 7,206 7,174 7,190 16 8,425 40,672
Jan-24 7,096 7,216 7,088 7,158 7,130 7,148 18 29,442 81,572
Mar-24 7,082 7,178 7,052 7,118 7,108 7,108 0 7,144 18,500
May-24 7,040 7,090 7,020 7,048 7,072 7,038 -34 305 313
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322