Grains Report 05/18/2023

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 18
For the week ended May 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -42.1 336.8 18886.5 19438.2 1982.6 1962.4
hrw -10.5 90.6 5109.6 7475.2 386.5 371.5
srw -27.2 98.5 2900.1 2878.3 315.6 751.8
hrs 2.0 79.8 5754.1 5522.6 680.2 524.7
white -5.7 67.8 4670.7 3366.2 508.2 277.5
durum -0.8 0.0 451.9 196.0 92.1 36.9
corn -339.0 74.0 38054.6 58904.3 10451.4 2700.4
soybeans 17.0 663.8 50782.6 59208.2 3112.8 2550.6
soymeal 202.5 89.0 10223.0 10361.4 2497.7 404.4
soyoil 0.9 0.0 118.6 665.3 56.4 0.6
upland cotton 132.4 28.1 12631.6 14861.8 3719.3 1524.2
pima cotton 9.5 0.0 307.2 472.0 83.9 4.7
sorghum -3.7 0.0 1640.2 6765.5 437.4 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 12.0 20.5 3.5 6.0
rice -31.7 73.2 1830.4 2657.4 401.8 91.2

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for May Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed May 1 96.7 95.9-97.2
Placed in April 95.9 90.5-99.6
Marketed in April 90.0 89.0-90.5
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
May 1 in April in April
Allegiant Commodity Group 96.5 96.1 90.5
Allendale Inc. 97.1 97.5 90.0
HedgersEdge 97.0 96.0 89.0
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 96.7 97.6 90.0
Midwest Market Solutions 97.2 96.2 89.2
NFC Markets 95.9 91.8 89.8
Texas A&M Extension 97.0 99.6 90.3
US Commodities 96.0 90.5 90.5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday, with the big selling seen by speculators in Chicago. Chicago SRW futures were lower on speculative selling seen also in Corn and Soybeans. Support came in part in reaction to the USDA production estimates released on Friday and on the apparent demise of the Black Sea Corridor deal. The Black Sea corridor deal looks ready to end this week as Russia is still not happy with the terms. However, Turkey said overnight that they expect the grain deal to be extended soon for 60 days. Uncertain weather helped support Kansas City and Minneapolis as well. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Weak Chinese economic data released early yesterday hurt the price action and caused speculative selling. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 611, 607, and 596 July, with resistance at 641, 664, and 670 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 867, 854, and 838 July, with resistance at 900, 912, and 919 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 849, 832, and 825 July, and resistance is at 876, 888, and 895 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday in recovery trading. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop. USDA showed that the next crop is developing fast and that conditions are very good in Rice country.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1704 and 1881 July. Support is at 1731, 1726, and 1712 July and resistance is at 1763, 1780, and 1799 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher yesterday and Oats closed at new highs for the move. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action as China cancellation of more purchases of 272,000 tons of US Corn. Chinese economic data was released yesterday and was worse than expected, so there is now new doubt as to how much the Chinese will buy and import this year. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for the rest of this week, but showers are possible again this weekend. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn, so the current export sales pace has been disappointing. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 552 and 526 July. Support is at 554, 548, and 542 July, and resistance is at 569, 573, and 582 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 355 and 373 July. Support is at 340, 336, and 333 July, and resistance is at 347, 352, and 358 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday on speculative selling tied to the release of Chinese economic data in the morning, the cancellation of Chinese Corn purchases here, and on good planting weather. The Chinese economy is in much worse shape than anyone thought, and the data implied that China will probably take less. Brazil basis levels are still low and the US is b3eing shut out of the market for most importers. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks and the economic news might help keep Chinese imports less than expected. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1322 July. Support is at 1334, 1312, and 1300 July, and resistance is at 1366, 1384, and 1389 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 424.00, 416.00, and 411.00 July, and resistance is at 437.00, 442.00, and 450.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4560, 4440, and 4320 July, with resistance at 4880, 5060, and 5090 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on Chicago price action and on news of unexpected Chinese economic weakness. April production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago and the Chinese economic news and despite dry conditions for planting in the Prairies. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 710.00, 701.00, and 696.00 July, with resistance at 735.00, 743.00, and 748.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3290 and 3140 August. Support is at 3370, 3310, and 3250 August, with resistance at 3450, 3590, and 3720 Aaugust.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 16
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 750.80 20.00 Jul 2023 up 17.90
Track Thunder Bay 769.20 40.00 Jul 2023 dn 1.60
Track Vancouver 784.20 55.00 Jul 2023 dn 1.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 870.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 810.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 880.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 820.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 830.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 3720.00 -80.00 Unquoted –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
June 237.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.5322)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 187,219 lots, or 9.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 5,081 5,087 5,033 5,063 5,084 5,059 -25 145,912 128,971
Sep-23 4,915 4,918 4,872 4,891 4,922 4,893 -29 26,319 41,470
Nov-23 4,818 4,830 4,792 4,809 4,830 4,808 -22 12,954 42,741
Jan-24 4,799 4,799 4,757 4,778 4,803 4,779 -24 1,613 7,103
Mar-24 4,771 4,790 4,750 4,765 4,790 4,773 -17 378 4,957
May-24 4,756 4,773 4,720 4,765 4,790 4,757 -33 43 38
Corn
Turnover: 705,609 lots, or 17.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 2,543 2,557 2,522 2,544 2,533 2,540 7 400,101 799,786
Sep-23 2,520 2,537 2,506 2,523 2,513 2,520 7 124,918 366,039
Nov-23 2,484 2,500 2,477 2,491 2,479 2,489 10 93,600 370,897
Jan-24 2,459 2,480 2,456 2,471 2,459 2,470 11 28,132 93,769
Mar-24 2,470 2,476 2,453 2,466 2,456 2,463 7 57,932 74,582
May-24 2,460 2,478 2,450 2,462 2,456 2,465 9 926 710
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,611,591 lots, or 55.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 3,540 3,595 3,513 3,569 3,558 3,559 1 164,861 298,740
Aug-23 3,551 3,590 3,512 3,571 3,555 3,555 0 52,361 210,033
Sep-23 3,470 3,503 3,435 3,489 3,489 3,476 -13 1,140,164 1,427,664
Nov-23 3,461 3,487 3,418 3,473 3,481 3,464 -17 26,092 168,831
Dec-23 3,391 3,420 3,372 3,412 3,418 3,403 -15 13,655 54,379
Jan-24 3,343 3,364 3,309 3,359 3,363 3,345 -18 158,022 335,455
Mar-24 3,182 3,243 3,173 3,227 3,212 3,218 6 36,551 41,722
May-24 3,097 3,138 3,090 3,128 3,212 3,116 -96 19,885 13,358
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,000,551 lots, or 67.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-23 7,296 7,334 7,166 7,170 7,300 7,254 -46 16,707 15,267
Jul-23 7,064 7,132 7,004 7,012 7,076 7,072 -4 43,643 124,600
Aug-23 6,874 6,928 6,812 6,820 6,884 6,878 -6 11,397 101,387
Sep-23 6,750 6,790 6,674 6,690 6,742 6,734 -8 885,401 589,570
Oct-23 6,718 6,748 6,650 6,686 6,698 6,698 0 11,927 56,481
Nov-23 6,678 6,720 6,626 6,630 6,670 6,666 -4 9,086 41,152
Dec-23 6,644 6,690 6,598 6,612 6,638 6,638 0 3,961 15,169
Jan-24 6,620 6,660 6,580 6,606 6,606 6,612 6 18,224 41,819
Feb-24 6,648 6,676 6,616 6,650 6,624 6,642 18 9 514
Mar-24 6,696 6,704 6,628 6,628 6,646 6,672 26 31 1,361
Apr-24 6,686 6,702 6,640 6,654 6,672 6,672 0 16 68
May-24 6,496 6,728 6,496 6,592 6,672 6,604 -68 149 86
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 989,139 lots, or 70.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-23 7,328 7,344 7,214 7,264 7,292 7,270 -22 44,150 126,178
Aug-23 7,248 7,294 7,176 7,214 7,242 7,228 -14 5,516 101,964
Sep-23 7,156 7,214 7,096 7,142 7,160 7,146 -14 877,184 635,793
Nov-23 7,170 7,220 7,106 7,158 7,174 7,156 -18 16,214 81,873
Dec-23 7,214 7,244 7,122 7,150 7,220 7,174 -46 10,941 39,546
Jan-24 7,150 7,194 7,086 7,120 7,144 7,130 -14 28,356 81,474
Mar-24 7,116 7,168 7,066 7,096 7,126 7,108 -18 6,478 18,359
May-24 7,128 7,144 7,026 7,028 7,126 7,072 -54 300 175
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322