Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in part on US Dollar weakness and in part on speculative buying seen in almost all commodities. USDA showed the potential for a tight supply and demand situation looking forward. Demand has been good, but the market is starting to shift attention to the new crop. Planting intentions and the WASDE report released last week show only weak production ideas, but demand has been less until reviving lately. Forecasts for showers are still showing in forecasts for West Texas but are expected to be lighter and more scattered than last week. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns.
Overnight News: The Delta will get isolated to scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have isolated showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 79.12 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 63 bales, from 75 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8290, 8410, and 8530 July. Support is at 81.20, 79.50, and 78.60 July, with resistance of 84.10, 84.90 and 85.20 July.
Date 14-May 7-May 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 35 22 35 36
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday as tight supplies for the market continue. USDA estimated production down at 15.7 million boxes for Florida. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to work higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good. Florida Citrus Mutual said that FCOJ inventories are 33% less than last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get isolated showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 239.00, 237.00, and 229.00 July, with resistance at 255.00, 260.00, and 266.00 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on speculative buying seen in many commodities markets yesterday. There are reports of increased offers of Robusta from Brazil, and good weather is noted for Arabica production there, with high production expectations for Brazil. The Arabica harvest is now just a few weeks away and offers of Arabica from Brazil are expected to increase at that time. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is in the market now. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Arabica harvest should be active in the next few weeks. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The market really needs big offers from Brazil to sustain any down side movement.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.642 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 178.10 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 37 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 652 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 181.00, 180.00, and 177.00 July, and resistance is at 190.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2380, and 2320 July, and resistance is at 2500, 2530, and 2560 July.
General Comments: Both New York and London closed a little higher yesterday, and trends remain sideways in both markets. The market is still hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil but supported by tight current supplies. Concern was noted about Chinese demand and the Brazil harvest is now just a few weeks away. Chinese demand has been a mystery as no one knows how much they will eventually buy. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. It should start becoming available soon. Indian production is less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2590, 2560, and 2490 July and resistance is at 2680, 2720, and 2750 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 700.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 730.00, 733.00, and 736.00 August.
General Comments: New York closed mostly a little higher and London closed mixed in currency related trading. Ideas of tight supplies based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures, but certified stocks have increased a lot this week in New York and deliveries have picked up as well. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.677 million bags. ICE NY said that 11 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,276 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2900 July, with resistance at 2990, 3050, and 3070 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2220, 2200, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2300, 2320, and 2350 July.