Grains Report 05/16/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
CORN May May 16, 2023 1 Apr 06, 2023
MINI-SIZED CORN May May 16, 2023 5 May 15, 2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 15
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon May 15, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 11, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/11/2023 05/04/2023 05/12/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,156
CORN 1,173,783 974,450 1,060,575 26,051,611 39,143,373
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 200 0 6,686 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 52,755 49,588 199,428 1,519,850 5,776,841
SOYBEANS 147,897 397,791 804,142 48,005,534 48,563,803
SUNFLOWER 0 100 0 2,508 2,260
WHEAT 242,269 214,538 348,937 18,713,097 19,377,595
Total 1,616,704 1,636,667 2,413,082 94,301,640 112,874,952
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 14-May 7-May 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 35 22 35 36
Corn Planted 65 49 45 59
Corn Emerged 30 12 13 25
Soybeans Planted 49 35 27 36
Soybeans Emerged 20 9 8 11
Sorghum Planted 28 24 25 28
Rice Planted 83 72 78 76
Rice Emerged 65 55 51 54
Peanuts Planted 37 17 44 42
Sugarbeets Planted 79 41 35 72
Sunflowers Planted 1 1 2
Oats Planted 70 60 65 76
Oats Emerged 53 42 44 55
Barley Planted 51 38 59 67
Barley Emerged 16 11 51 55
Winter Wheat Headed 49 38 46 48
Spring Wheat Planted 40 24 37 57
Spring Wheat Emerged 15 2 15 23

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 18 23 30 25 4
Winter Wheat Last Week 20 24 27 25 4
Winter Wheat Last Year 24 17 32 24 3

Rice This Week 0 4 26 59 11
Rice Last Week
Rice Last Year 1 3 24 57 15

Pasture and Range This Week 12 21 33 28 6
Pasture and Range Last Week 15 22 30 27 6
Pasture and Range Last Year 25 24 25 20 2

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday, with Kansas City leading the way and Minneapolis trading higher. Chicago SRW futures were higher. The moves came in part in reaction to the USDA production estimates released on Friday and in part on speculative buying seen in most commodities markets yesterday. The Black Sea corridor deal looks ready to end this week to add support to prices here. Planting of Spring Wheat has been delayed due to wet soils from melting snow and now from reports of dry weather in western production areas of both the US and Canada. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 690 and 715 July. Support is at 641, 626, and 611 July, with resistance at 670, 682, and 6898 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 938 July. Support is at 885, 867, and 854 July, with resistance at 912, 924, and 936 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 910 July. Support is at 849, 832, and 825 July, and resistance is at 876, 886, and 895 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative and new commercial selling. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice, but at l4east some mills say they now have enough bought to last until the harvest of the next crop.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1769, 1758, and 1749 July and resistance is at 1799, 1815, and 1824 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying seen in just about all commodities markets. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for the rest of this week, but showers are possible again this weekend. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 579, 572, and 569 July, and resistance is at 601, 612, and 616 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 342 July. Support is at 326, 330, and 322 July, and resistance is at 345, 352, and 360 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative buying seen in almost all commodities markets. Brazil basis levels are still so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports last week indicated that the basis is forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1384, 1372, and 1360 July, and resistance is at 1417, 1430, and 1446 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 451.00 July. Support is at 430.00, 424.00, and 416.00 July, and resistance is at 443.00, 450.00, and 456.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4880, 4800, and 4680 July, with resistance at 5060, 5090, and 5240 July.

Alerts History
• 15-May-2023 11:00:32 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYBEAN CRUSH 173.232 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15-May-2023 11:00:32 AM – U.S. APRIL SOYOIL STOCKS 1.957 BILLION LBS – NOPA
NOPA April soybean crush slows to 173.232 million bushels – Reuters News
15-May-2023 11:00:38 AM
To view this story on Refinitiv Workspace, click here
• NOTE: For a table detailing NOPA data by region, see Eikon page 0#SEED-US-STAT
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, May 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean crush slowed in April and fell short of the average trade estimate, although processors still recorded their busiest April crush on record, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.
NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 173.232 million bushels of soybeans last month, down 6.8% from the 185.810 million bushels processed in March but up 2.0% from the April 2022 crush of 169.788 million bushels.
It was also the largest April crush on record, topping the previous high mark of 171.754 million bushels in 2020, NOPA data showed.
The April 2023 crush fell short of the average trade estimate of 174.173 million bushels in a Reuters survey of eight analysts. Estimates ranged from 172.000 million to 177.500 million bushels, with a median of 173.750 million bushels.
Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of April 30 increased to a 14-month high of 1.957 billion pounds, up from the 1.851 billion pounds at the end of March and above the 1.814 billion pounds in NOPA stocks at the end of April 2022.
Soyoil supplies at the end of April had been expected to drop to 1.828 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from five analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.750 billion to 1.950 billion pounds, with a median of 1.809 billion pounds.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on Chicago price action and on ideas of reduced supplies and production. Futures were lower on follow through selling today. The rebound did not happen in April as production was 7% less than March at 1.196 million tons. Exports were also down and ending stocks were estimated at 1.597 million tons, down over 10% from last month. The report was expected to support Palm Oil futures at this time. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts and are now sideways on the daily charts. Canola was higher yesterday along with the price action in Chicago and dry conditions for planting in the Prairies. Trends are mixed on the weekly charts. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 710.00, 701.00, and 696.00 July, with resistance at 741.00, 748.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3620, 3550, and 3530 July, with resistance at 3700, 3840, and 3880 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 11
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 754.70 20.00 July 2023 dn 11.40
Basis: Thunder Bay 764.10 40.00 July 2023 dn 10.60
Basis: Vancouver 779.10 55.00 July 2023 dn 10.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 900.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 895.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 835.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 817.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 910.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 905.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 827.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 770.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3850.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 240.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4961)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 231,674 lots, or 11.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 – – – 4,910 4,910 4,910 0 0 0
Jul-23 5,114 5,114 5,026 5,091 5,094 5,064 -30 171,325 131,863
Sep-23 4,948 4,984 4,882 4,951 4,940 4,933 -7 36,129 39,813
Nov-23 4,867 4,899 4,801 4,861 4,854 4,849 -5 22,384 40,387
Jan-24 4,832 4,875 4,785 4,834 4,831 4,835 4 1,523 6,794
Mar-24 4,822 4,865 4,776 4,820 4,826 4,814 -12 313 4,934
Corn
Turnover: 645,408 lots, or 1.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 – – – 2,520 2,520 2,520 0 0 14,786
Jul-23 2,533 2,563 2,533 2,544 2,523 2,545 22 335,380 803,837
Sep-23 2,524 2,550 2,521 2,531 2,512 2,533 21 111,453 351,268
Nov-23 2,484 2,512 2,481 2,487 2,483 2,494 11 125,713 360,548
Jan-24 2,470 2,491 2,465 2,469 2,470 2,476 6 20,769 86,763
Mar-24 2,467 2,486 2,460 2,464 2,466 2,471 5 52,093 70,255
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,356,505 lots, or 47.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,974 4,048 3,974 3,986 3,866 3,999 133 53 11,832
Jul-23 3,585 3,640 3,579 3,616 3,565 3,606 41 155,966 305,804
Aug-23 3,587 3,641 3,580 3,615 3,558 3,607 49 47,628 208,218
Sep-23 3,521 3,557 3,512 3,548 3,502 3,537 35 954,852 1,481,745
Nov-23 3,518 3,544 3,504 3,529 3,499 3,525 26 40,482 167,057
Dec-23 3,459 3,481 3,434 3,478 3,453 3,459 6 11,006 54,084
Jan-24 3,401 3,428 3,386 3,425 3,391 3,406 15 125,706 307,512
Mar-24 3,300 3,315 3,290 3,300 3,320 3,298 -22 20,812 36,381
Palm Oil
Turnover: 942,813 lots, or 64.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 – – – 7,348 7,348 7,348 0 0 3,004
Jun-23 7,386 7,404 7,300 7,330 7,334 7,348 14 15,144 26,696
Jul-23 7,208 7,246 7,094 7,124 7,160 7,166 6 39,386 123,393
Aug-23 7,056 7,064 6,910 6,930 6,968 6,984 16 12,626 97,840
Sep-23 6,916 6,932 6,770 6,790 6,842 6,848 6 822,042 556,151
Oct-23 6,856 6,860 6,726 6,736 6,778 6,798 20 12,689 53,291
Nov-23 6,810 6,834 6,692 6,708 6,744 6,756 12 11,137 37,815
Dec-23 6,776 6,800 6,664 6,682 6,712 6,728 16 5,309 14,045
Jan-24 6,780 6,786 6,638 6,662 6,698 6,716 18 24,438 37,487
Feb-24 6,710 6,710 6,666 6,666 6,718 6,688 -30 2 510
Mar-24 6,796 6,796 6,684 6,692 6,716 6,742 26 14 1,346
Apr-24 6,812 6,812 6,708 6,712 6,740 6,756 16 26 58
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 912,404 lots, or 66.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 – – – 7,890 7,890 7,890 0 84 4,665
Jul-23 7,526 7,546 7,364 7,374 7,476 7,470 -6 39,349 123,990
Aug-23 7,476 7,482 7,320 7,324 7,406 7,404 -2 7,976 100,994
Sep-23 7,368 7,378 7,224 7,238 7,298 7,310 12 793,149 607,971
Nov-23 7,390 7,398 7,236 7,240 7,326 7,310 -16 17,444 79,226
Dec-23 7,386 7,420 7,272 7,280 7,334 7,350 16 8,784 37,242
Jan-24 7,318 7,350 7,208 7,218 7,262 7,280 18 39,962 77,281
Mar-24 7,284 7,320 7,180 7,182 7,238 7,254 16 5,656 16,565
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322