Grains Report 05/11/2023

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2023 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2022
Corn Production 15,098 13,730-15,300 13,730
Soybean Production 4,484 4,276-4,510 4,276
Corn Soybean
Production Production
AgriSompo North America 13,730 4,276
AgriSource 15,250 4,510
Allendale 15,248 4,509
Doane 15,150 4,510
Futures International 15,251 4,461
Grain Cycles 15,191 4,508
Linn 14,988 4,447
Sid Love Consulting 15,084 4,510
Marex Group 15,300 4,498
Midland Research 15,245 4,510
Midwest Market Solutions 14,943 4,461
Northstar 15,200 4,461
Ocean State Research 15,119 4,505
Prime Ag 15,156 4,505
Risk Mgmt Commodities 15,200 4,504
StoneX 15,085 4,510
US Commodities 15,280 4,510
Vantage RM 15,195 4,500
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,246 4,510

DJ U.S. May Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2022-23 and 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2022-23 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 1,356 1,242-1,417 1,342
Soybeans 212 179-250 210
Wheat 603 585-622 598
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,034 1,550-2,501 N/A
Soybeans 282 225-367 N/A
Wheat 602 535-650 N/A
2022-23 2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Agrisompo North America 1,402 210 598 2,020 272 587
AgriSource 1,414 200 598 2,100 275 610
Allendale 1,402 250 622 2,090 293 634
Doane 1,360 195 585 1,885 235 650
Futures International 1,342 207 598 2,203 257 608
Grain Cycles 1,407 240 613 2,083 290 618
Linn 1,267 230 598 1,880 332 620
Sid Love Consulting 1,417 210 598 2,051 284 638
Marex Group 1,367 210 593 2,290 323 591
Midland Research 1,392 195 608 2,022 254 600
Midwest Market Solutions 1,344 230 618 1,923 228 604
Northstar 1,325 200 598 2,025 275 600
Ocean State Research 1,367 225 608 2,501 300 616
Prime Ag 1,242 210 598 1,700 225 550
RJ O’Brien 1,356 228 612 1,929 239 598
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,375 210 605 1,550 320 620
StoneX 1,382 179 607 2,462 367 535
US Commodities 1,267 190 605 1,932 320 605
Vantage RM 1,367 210 598 1,950 290 620
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,327 215 598 2,092 270 542

DJ May World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2022-23 and 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2022-23
Average Range USDA April
Corn 294.2 269.5-307.0 295.4
Soybeans 99.4 97.0-102.0 100.3
Wheat 265.1 263.0-266.2 265.1
2023-24
Average Range USDA April
Corn 307.5 295.0-327.1 N/A
Soybeans 105.8 99.5-122.0 N/A
Wheat 260.6 245.7-270.0 N/A
2022-23 2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 269.5 100.1 264.4 302.0 101.5 263.0
Allendale 295.8 100.1 266.2 319.1 112.9 262.9
Futures International 293.9 98.0 264.0 310.9 115.0 253.7
Grain Cycles 307.0 99.0 263.0 301.0 103.0 270.0
Linn 296.0 97.0 266.0 315.0 105.0 260.0
Marex Group 296.0 99.0 265.0 320.0 114.0 252.0
Midland Research 293.5 98.0 266.0 302.0 102.5 260.0
Midwest Market Solutions 295.6 100.5 264.9 298.8 100.4 264.9
Northstar 294.5 99.0 265.1 306.0 103.0 270.0
Ocean State Research 294.0 102.0 266.0
Prime Ag 294.0 99.0 265.0 300.0 100.0 260.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 297.5 99.5 265.0 305.0 100.0 262.0
StoneX 299.0 101.8 265.8 327.1 122.0 245.7
US Commodities 293.0 99.5 265.0 295.0 99.5 264.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 294.1 98.7 265.4 303.2 102.4 260.8

DJ May Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2022-23, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Friday at noon ET.
2022-23 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 125.9 123.0-131.6 125.0
Soybeans 154.6 153.0-157.7 154.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 125.0 153.8
Allendale 125.0 154.0
Doane 123.0 153.0
Futures International 125.0 154.0
Linn 125.0 155.0
Marex Group 128.0 154.0
Midland Research 125.0 155.0
Midwest Market Solutions 125.5 154.5
Northstar 125.0 154.0
Ocean State Research 126.0 157.0
Prime Ag 125.0 154.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 127.0 154.0
StoneX 131.6 157.7
US Commodities 126.0 155.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 126.0 154.5
2022-23 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 35.0 34.0-37.0 37.0
Soybeans 24.4 22.0-26.0 27.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 35.0 26.0
Allendale 36.0 26.0
Doane 36.0 24.0
Futures International 34.0 24.5
Linn 35.0 23.0
Marex Group 35.0 23.0
Midland Research 34.0 24.0
Midwest Market Solutions 35.0 22.0
Northstar 36.0 25.5
Ocean State Research 34.0 25.0
Prime Ag 34.0 25.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 36.0 26.0
StoneX 37.0 24.5
US Commodities 34.0 23.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 34.0 24.5

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2023-24 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2023-24 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2022-23
All Wheat 1,782 1,640-1,887 1,650
Winter Wheat 1,218 1,080-1,371 1,104
Hard Red Winter 588 492-712 531
Soft Red Winter 397 337-439 337
White Winter 238 216-270 236
All Wheat Winter Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White
Allendale 1,762 1,238 597 409 231
Doane 1,875 1,315 635 439 242
Futures International 1,855 1,329 680 422 227
Grain Cycles 1,787 1,289 659 403 227
Linn 1,811 1,281 663 382 241
Sid Love Consulting 1,887
Marex Group 1,770 1,270 585 415 270
Midland Research 1,752 1,156 496 408 254
Midwest Market Solutions 1,761 1,100 527 337 236
Northstar 1,850 1,080 492 350 238
Ocean State Research 1,853 1,371 712 426 232
Prime Ag 1,700
RJ O’Brien 1,766 1,212 590 408 216
Risk Mgmt Commodities 1,640 1,100 520 345 235
StoneX 1,751 1,141 552 426 227
US Commodities 1,780 1,225 580 398 235
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,691 1,161 539 393 259

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 11
For the week ended May 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 26.3 333.6 18928.5 19429.8 2241.3 1625.6
hrw 10.4 65.7 5120.0 7510.0 482.9 280.9
srw 12.7 65.5 2927.3 2875.4 367.6 653.3
hrs 4.3 132.4 5752.1 5459.6 729.1 444.9
white -1.2 70.0 4676.4 3388.7 549.1 209.7
durum 0.0 0.0 452.7 196.0 112.6 36.9
corn 257.3 83.1 38393.6 58490.7 11876.9 2626.4
soybeans 62.2 50.1 50765.7 58455.5 3285.0 1886.8
soymeal 277.8 -11.0 10020.4 10068.3 2580.4 315.4
soyoil 0.3 0.0 117.7 665.7 59.9 0.6
upland cotton 246.8 12.8 12499.2 14750.9 3919.6 1496.1
pima cotton 15.2 0.0 297.7 469.7 89.0 4.7
sorghum 49.1 0.0 1643.9 6832.8 494.2 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 12.0 20.5 3.5 6.0
rice 30.6 0.0 1862.1 2644.2 488.9 18.0

DJ Brazil Raises 2022-2023 Soybean Estimate to 154.8M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its estimate for soybean production for the 2022-2023 growing season as good weather boosted productivity.
Brazilian farmers produced 154.8 million metric tons of soybeans this season, the agency said Thursday. In April, the agency forecast a crop of 153.6 million tons. Brazil produced 125.5 million tons of soybeans in 2021-2022.
The soybean harvest is almost complete, with field work in Brazil’s breadbasket center-west states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias basically finished, Conab said. Yields per hectare in all soybean-producing states rose 16.7% in the 2022-2023 season from the previous growing season, according to the agency.
Brazilian farmers will produce 125.5 million metric tons of corn this season, the agency said. In April, the agency forecast a crop of 124.9 million tons. Brazil produced 113.1 million tons of corn in 2021-2022.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 12, 2023 23 May 09, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL May May 12, 2023 60 Apr 28, 2023
ROUGH RICE May May 12, 2023 40 May 10, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT May May 12, 2023 9 Apr 27, 2023
WHEAT May May 12, 2023 42 May 10, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly a little lower yesterday on positioning before the USDA export sales report today and the WASDE report tomorrow. Reports indicate that funds and other speculators are short the market and the continued drought in the western US and around the world. More showers are in the forecast for the central and southern Great Plains for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. It is also dry in the Canadian Prairies, especially in western areas, and producers are worried about planting. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. US Spring Wheat planting progress has been slow due to wet soils caused mostly by the huge snows seen earlier this Winter that have been melting. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the 000world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 627, 622, and 611 July, with resistance at 653, 670, and 683 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 860 July. Support is at 832, 812, and 797 July, with resistance at 859, 863, and 886 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 910 July. Support is at 833, 825, and 815 July, and resistance is at 864, 876, and 886 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday, with new crop prices lower in response to the rapid planting and emergence seen in the USDA progress reports released on Monday afternoon. Traders were getting ready for the USDA export sales report released this morning and the WASDE report to be released tomorrow afternoon. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1795, 1782, and 1769 July and resistance is at 1840, 1849, and 1861 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 10
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 18.85 11.54 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.60 12.24 0.00
Brokens 10.96 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 50.62/18.25 6.81
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.20/9.50 6.93

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday as traders prepared for the export ales report being released earl today and the monthly WASDE report that will be released tomorrow morning. Reports of strong planting progress and less Chinese demand hurt the Corn price action. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected for the rest of this week, but showers are possible again this weekend. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 579, 572, and 569 July, and resistance is at 590, 594, and 601 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 342 July. Support is at 328, 322, and 310 July, and resistance is at 345, 352, and 360 July.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Inventories Extend Slide
By Kirk Maltais
Total ethanol inventories in the U.S. have fallen for a third consecutive week, according to government data.
In the latest weekly report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said daily ethanol inventories totaled 23.29 million barrels for the week ended May 5, which is down 72,000 barrels from last week’s figure. The total lands on the higher end of forecasts from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones.
Daily production averages also declined, sliding 11,000 barrels a day to 965,000 barrels a day. Analysts had expected production to rise, landing anywhere from 970,000 barrels a day to 997,000 barrels a day.
Fuel prices have been on the decline in the past month. Although they have experienced a brief turnaround, crude oil prices have been on a downward spiral since early April–with current prices off roughly 10% from where they started in April. Natural gas futures have shed over 4% since the beginning of April.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday, but Soybean Meal closed higher and trends are mixed on the charts for all three markets. Mucgh of the trading was in anticipation of the weekly export sales report that was released this morning and the WASDE report being released tomorrow. Brazil basis levels are still so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports last week indicated that the basis is forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its Soybeans demand, but Chinese customs is now making delivery of the beans very difficult by delaying entry into the country by about two weeks. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1392, 1384, and 1372 July, and resistance is at 1418, 1430, and 1446 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 416.00, 411.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 424.00, 430.00, and 434.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5180, 5090, and 5060 July, with resistance at 5350, 5510, and 5560 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on Chicago price action. Indian imports are at a 14 month low. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are up on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday along with the price action in Chicago. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 723.00, 718.00, and 701.00 July, with resistance at 741.00, 748.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3650, 3830, and 3840 July. Support is at 3620, 3530, and 3500 July, with resistance at 3880, 3900, and 3940 July.

DJ Malaysia Palm-Oil Exports Rose 1.72% on May 1-10, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the May 1-10 period are estimated to have risen 1.72% on month to 333,779 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
May 1-10 April 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 75,262 89,518
RBD Palm Oil 21,875 37,990
RBD Palm Stearin 39,142 31,560
Crude Palm Oil 95,000 56,550
Total* 333,779 328,133
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s April Palm Oil Exports 1.07M Tons; Down 28%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 28% on month at 1.07 million metric tons in April, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the April crop data and revised numbers for March, issued by MPOB:
April March Change
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,196,450 1,288,354 Dn 7.13%
Palm Oil Exports 1,074,447 1,487,836 Dn 27.78%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 88,447 84,307 Up 4.91%
Palm Oil Imports 33,678 39,772 Dn 15.32%
Closing Stocks 1,497,535 1,674,022 Dn 10.54%
Crude Palm Oil 833,677 891,961 Dn 6.53%
Processed Palm Oil 663,858 782,061 Dn 15.11%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 10
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 766.10 28.00 July 2023 up 4.90
Basis: Thunder Bay 774.70 40.00 July 2023 dn 3.40
Basis: Vancouver 789.70 55.00 July 2023 dn 3.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 930.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 925.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 852.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 832.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 940.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 935.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 862.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 842.50 -20.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 885.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 780.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3950.00 -130.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 240.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.461)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322