Grains Report 05/09/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 10, 2023 65 May 01, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL May May 10, 2023 176 Apr 26, 2023
WHEAT May May 10, 2023 13 May 08, 2023
MINI-SIZED WHEAT May May 10, 2023 25 Apr 27, 2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 8
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon May 8, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 04, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/04/2023 04/27/2023 05/05/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,156
CORN 963,351 1,518,569 1,477,246 24,866,729 38,082,798
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 0 0 6,586 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 49,588 112,824 270,492 1,467,095 5,577,413
SOYBEANS 394,755 407,973 506,939 47,854,601 47,759,661
SUNFLOWER 100 0 0 2,508 2,260
WHEAT 209,138 358,273 262,919 18,458,158 19,028,658
Total 1,617,032 2,397,639 2,517,596 92,658,031 110,461,870
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 7-May 30-Apr 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 22 15 23 23
Corn Planted 49 26 21 42
Corn Emerged 12 6 5 11
Soybeans Planted 35 19 11 21
Soybeans Emerged 9 3 4
Sorghum Planted 24 21 22 24
Rice Planted 72 63 63 63
Rice Emerged 55 39 35 41
Peanuts Planted 17 8 23 23
Sugarbeets Planted 41 24 25 56
Oats Planted 60 49 54 64
Oats Emerged 42 33 35 43
Barley Planted 38 19 46 50
Barley Emerged 11 3 20 19
Winter Wheat Headed 38 25 32 35
Spring Wheat Planted 24 12 26 38
Spring Wheat Emerged 5 2 8 11

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 20 24 27 25 4
Winter Wheat Last Week 19 23 30 25 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 21 18 32 26 3

Pasture and Range This Week 15 22 30 27 6
Pasture and Range Last Week
Pasture and Range Last Year 26 26 26 20 2

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks as of March 31, 2023 – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of March 31, 2023, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
March March March March March March
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022
Barley 2,108 1,533 559 321 2,667 1,853
Canaryseed 76 77 15 26 91 103
Canola 4,665 3,420 1,283 1,739 5,948 5,159
Chickpeas 88 245 24 25 112 270
Corn 5,699 5,255 3,376 4,027 9,075 9,282
Flaxseed 300 130 55 54 355 184
Lentils 688 863 212 179 900 1,042
Mustard 41 26 19 19 60 45
Oats 2,266 925 368 303 2,634 1,228
Peas 1,117 880 354 322 1,471 1,202
Rye 233 142 28 30 261 172
Soybeans 1,094 975 901 907 1,995 1,882
Sunflower 162 136 8 3 169 139
All wheat 9,343 7,133 3,918 4,087 13,261 11,220
Durum 1,109 1,040 697 857 1,806 1,897
By MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday on buying seen in reaction to reports that funds and other speculators are short the market and the continued drought in the western US and around the world. More showers are in the forecast for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. It is also dry in the Canadian Prairies, especially in western areas, and producers are worried about planting. Dry conditions are a developing problem in Russia, and especially in the Spring Wheat areas there. US Spring Wheat planting progress has been slow due to wet soils caused mostly by the huge snows seen earlier this Winter that have been melting. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and to the UN but has rejected potential solutions so far. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the 000world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export. The daily charts show up trends for all three markets. Weekly chart trends are down for SRW and Spring Wheat and mixed for HRW.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get isolated showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 680 and 718 July. Support is at 644, 627, and 622 July, with resistance at 670, 683, and 688 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 860 July. Support is at 832, 812, and 797 July, with resistance at 859, 863, and 886 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 863 and 910 July. Support is at 825, 815, and 810 July, and resistance is at 856, 864, and 872 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed narrowly mixed yesterday after the big up week last week. It looked like traders were consolidating recent gains. Chart trends are up and overbought for the daily charts and are up on the weekly charts. Offers still seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get moistly dry conditions r isolated showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1800, 1795, and 1782 July and resistance is at 1849, 1861, and 1866 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed higher yesterday, with Corn buyers still looking for product in nearby months, but sellers content to take new crop months lower.. It looked like the funds and other speculators were covering short positions in the old crop months. Trends are up on the daily charts for both markets. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial and export buying interest. Most producers are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected this week. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 615 and 638 July. Support is at 588, 580, and 572 July, and resistance is at 601, 612, and 616 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 342 July. Support is at 328, 322, and 310 July, and resistance is at 345, 352, and 360 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed yesterday, as Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower but Soybean Meal was higher. Soybean Oil trends are still up on the daily charts. Trends are turning up in Soybeans but are sideways at best for Soybean Meal. Brazil basis levels are still so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports last week indicated that the basis is forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. Production ideas in Argentina are less than 25 million tons, or less than half a crop. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1471, 1478, and 1509 July. Support is at 1428, 1419, and 1411 July, and resistance is at 14346, 1456, and 1460 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 422.00, 418.00, and 411.00 July, and resistance is at 430.00, 434.00, and 437.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5510 and 5750 July. Support is at 5260, 5180, and 5090 July, with resistance at 5510, 5560, and 5620 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today and yesterday on Chicago price action. Selling was seen earlier in the week from news that Indonesia will reduce its domestic supply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Indian imports are at a 14 month low. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are up on the daily charts. Canola was missed yesterday, with nearby months a little lower and deferred months a little higher. Trends are still up on the daily charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins. It is very dry in the Canadian Prairies, and especially in western sections. Producers want to plant but are hoping for some moisture. Only isolated showers are in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 744.00 and 771.00 July. Support is at 718.00, 701.00, and 688.00 July, with resistance at 741.00, 752.00, and 760.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3650, 3830, and 3840 July. Support is at 3620, 3530, and 3500 July, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3900 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 5, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 743.10 28.00 Jul 23 dn 0.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 775.10 40.00 Jul 23 up 20.00
Basis: Vancouver 790.10 55.00 Jul 23 up 20.00
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 975.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 965.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 985.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 975.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 930.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 795.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4100.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 242.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.447)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 323,130 lots, or 16.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,044 5,044 5,010 5,010 5,095 5,030 -65 18 2,816
Jul-23 5,109 5,149 5,032 5,075 5,010 5,078 68 237,043 165,057
Sep-23 4,979 5,006 4,892 4,920 4,923 4,933 10 46,927 37,439
Nov-23 4,902 4,933 4,818 4,834 4,867 4,852 -15 35,817 36,241
Jan-24 4,872 4,893 4,798 4,804 4,850 4,822 -28 2,688 5,798
Mar-24 4,840 4,882 4,780 4,791 4,840 4,814 -26 637 5,188
Corn
Turnover: 577,501 lots, or 14.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,608 2,608 2,585 2,590 2,598 2,591 -7 526 17,454
Jul-23 2,625 2,633 2,601 2,602 2,614 2,616 2 297,072 842,541
Sep-23 2,614 2,615 2,582 2,583 2,607 2,596 -11 81,153 329,528
Nov-23 2,551 2,553 2,516 2,517 2,545 2,533 -12 141,816 339,524
Jan-24 2,546 2,548 2,510 2,512 2,539 2,527 -12 15,218 65,153
Mar-24 2,546 2,548 2,509 2,510 2,541 2,527 -14 41,716 55,596
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,226,915 lots, or 4.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,815 3,845 3,788 3,819 3,777 3,824 47 378 12,083
Jul-23 3,602 3,612 3,554 3,580 3,572 3,581 9 140,675 334,061
Aug-23 3,575 3,579 3,540 3,559 3,557 3,561 4 34,268 200,876
Sep-23 3,550 3,553 3,511 3,527 3,540 3,531 -9 876,473 1,514,982
Nov-23 3,564 3,564 3,517 3,530 3,545 3,536 -9 32,548 169,543
Dec-23 3,498 3,508 3,466 3,477 3,498 3,487 -11 23,229 53,271
Jan-24 3,482 3,482 3,439 3,444 3,471 3,455 -16 102,845 278,097
Mar-24 3,400 3,400 3,362 3,365 3,388 3,375 -13 16,499 29,913
Palm Oil
Turnover: 934,396 lots, or 67.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,612 7,632 7,500 7,598 7,550 7,580 30 506 3,165
Jun-23 7,670 7,692 7,586 7,614 7,550 7,626 76 34,374 53,991
Jul-23 7,498 7,504 7,386 7,444 7,376 7,438 62 38,578 122,654
Aug-23 7,342 7,350 7,230 7,258 7,228 7,272 44 16,664 87,128
Sep-23 7,250 7,266 7,136 7,146 7,156 7,186 30 803,432 501,105
Oct-23 7,212 7,222 7,090 7,098 7,110 7,132 22 10,712 45,292
Nov-23 7,148 7,190 7,060 7,062 7,088 7,106 18 8,780 33,695
Dec-23 7,154 7,158 6,634 7,028 7,058 7,076 18 4,144 10,475
Jan-24 7,122 7,130 6,978 7,008 7,032 7,042 10 17,041 26,391
Feb-24 7,054 7,136 6,996 7,002 7,054 7,054 0 64 501
Mar-24 7,004 7,130 7,000 7,006 6,984 7,024 40 83 1,322
Apr-24 7,102 7,102 7,000 7,040 7,034 7,042 8 18 35
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 884,725 lots, or 67.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,018 8,018 8,000 8,000 8,044 8,000 -44 51 4,667
Jul-23 7,818 7,832 7,666 7,682 7,746 7,726 -20 56,876 129,371
Aug-23 7,792 7,800 7,632 7,644 7,718 7,694 -24 8,325 96,895
Sep-23 7,704 7,724 7,548 7,552 7,646 7,626 -20 764,268 576,187
Nov-23 7,718 7,746 7,568 7,576 7,674 7,648 -26 17,565 71,711
Dec-23 7,764 7,774 7,412 7,610 7,700 7,684 -16 7,058 34,031
Jan-24 7,718 7,744 7,566 7,572 7,672 7,638 -34 23,331 54,876
Mar-24 7,680 7,722 7,548 7,548 7,650 7,628 -22 7,251 12,850
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322