Softs Report 05/08/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again on Friday on a stronger than expected weekly export sales report that was released Thursday morning and on chart patterns. Trends are now up on the daily charts but are still mixed on the weekly charts. The report showed strong demand from just about all major buyers of US Cotton and was a sign that prices had gotten cheap enough. Forecasts for rain are still showing in forecasts for West Texas but the rains are expected to be lighter and more scattered than last week. The rains last week were spotty so more rain in new areas would be very beneficial. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns. The Fed raised interest rates by another 0.25% yesterday and there are ideas that the economy might suffer more with the higher interest rates.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.69 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 75 bales, from 75 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 85.10 and 89.40 July. Support is at 81.80, 79.80, and 78.60 July, with resistance of 85.20, 86.00 and 86.70 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 02, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 214,528
: Positions :
: 27,342 50,732 50,719 54,604 86,138 68,854 14,749 201,519 202,337: 13,010 12,191
: Changes from: April 25, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,208) :
: -83 -355 1,530 1,053 1,686 -341 483 2,159 3,344: 1,049 -136
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 23.6 23.6 25.5 40.2 32.1 6.9 93.9 94.3: 6.1 5.7
: Total Traders: 276 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 85 90 53 57 46 24 215 216:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday along with most other commodities markets. The charts show a sideways range has developed and futures are near the middle of the range for both the daily and weekly charts. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 260.00, 248.00, and 242.00 July, with resistance at 272.00, 275.00, and 181.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 2, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,247 :
: Positions :
: 564 6,218 1,264 157 40 4,430 476 16 868 471 2,034 :
: Changes from: April 25, 2023 :
: -460 -582 -23 14 0 31 -19 -32 -24 65 -330 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.0 55.3 11.2 1.4 0.4 39.4 4.2 0.1 7.7 4.2 18.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 7 9 4 . . 20 . . 9 9 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher along with most commodities markets on Friday and on reports of light offers, good weather, and high production expectations for Brazil. Funds and other speculators appeared to be the best buyers. Charts trends are sideways on the daily charts and up on the weekly charts. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta, but the Brazil harvest is coming to the market soon. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Arabica harvest should be active in the next few weeks. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.657 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 176.70 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 14 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 380 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 181.00, and 180.00 July, and resistance is at 189.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2450, 2490, and 2520 July.

DJ Africa Coffee Exports Fell in March
By George Mwangi
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
African green coffee bean exports fell 5.0% in March compared with the same month last year, largely due to reduced exports from Ivory Coast and Kenya, the International Coffee Organization said late Friday.
Green coffee bean exports from the continent fell to 1.12 million 60-kilogram bags in March compared with 1.18 bags in March 2022, the ICO said in its April monthly report.
Ivory Coast and Kenya coffee exports fell by 43% to 120,000 bags in March from 210,000 bags in March 2022, and by 17.7% to 58,340 bags from 70,849 bags, respectively, it said.
However, an increase in exports from Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda reduced the severity of the region’s downturn in March compared with the prior year, it said.
For the first six months of the current coffee year beginning October, exports totaled 6.35 million bags, up 0.3% compared with 6.33 million bags in the same period of the 2021-22 coffee year, it said.
Meanwhile, the ICO composite indicator average price rose 5.0%% to $1.79 a pound in April compared with the prior month, it said.
Average prices for all coffee types rose in April, with robusta averaging 8.7% at $1.16 a pound, the ICO said.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 02, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 232,214
: Positions :
: 37,758 20,557 66,927 49,960 124,683 69,534 12,882 224,178 225,049: 8,036 7,165
: Changes from: April 25, 2023 (Change in open interest: 3,290) :
: -1,797 856 2,719 928 -1,821 1,113 1,087 2,964 2,840: 327 450
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 8.9 28.8 21.5 53.7 29.9 5.5 96.5 96.9: 3.5 3.1
: Total Traders: 366 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 83 111 102 121 50 24 312 279:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and
futures
Combined Positions as of 05/02/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
124,496 41,600 87,714 3,837 6,215 2,376
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 33.4% 70.5% 3.1% 5.0% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 41 40 6 9 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
45,404 5,062 6,915 7,047 1,863 9,407
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
36.5% 4.1% 5.6% 5.7% 1.5% 7.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
56 8 11 17 10 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
7,910 4,944
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.4% 4.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed higher last week, and London also closed higher, with the market hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil for New York but supported by tight current supplies. Concern was noted about Chinese demand and the Brazil harvest is now just a few weeks away. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2490, 2460, and 2360 July and resistance is at 2570, 2600, and 2650 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 675.00, 672.00, and 658.00 August and resistance is at 714.00, 730.00, and 733.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 02, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,226,026
: Positions :
: 215,173 60,115 305,702 362,401 713,518 243,131 100,890 1,126,406 1,180,224: 99,620 45,802
: Changes from: April 25, 2023 (Change in open interest: -9,279) :
: -7,237 270 20,766 1,768 -25,656 -18,336 57 -3,039 -4,563: -6,240 -4,716
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.6 4.9 24.9 29.6 58.2 19.8 8.2 91.9 96.3: 8.1 3.7
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 40 74 67 76 44 23 230 181:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/02/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
80,708 32,592 61,411 6,985 3,096 1,413
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 40.4% 76.1% 8.7% 3.8% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
125 36 42 10 2 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,732 3,553 3,324 860 1,468 3,607
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
33.1% 4.4% 4.1% 1.1% 1.8% 4.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 9 21 8 5 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,195 2,836
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.4% 3.5%

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week as the buy side tries to consolidate recent gins but as ideas of tight supplies based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.907 million tons, down 6.9% from last year. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.543 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 953 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2900, 2860, and 2810 July, with resistance at 2950, 2980, and 4010 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2170, 2150, and 2120 July, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2290 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 02, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 399,857
: Positions :
: 99,346 62,567 117,085 107,237 172,839 60,780 36,289 384,448 388,780: 15,409 11,077
: Changes from: April 25, 2023 (Change in open interest: 2,270) :
: -880 1,477 2,747 1,566 -2,469 -1,367 298 2,067 2,054: 203 216
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.8 15.6 29.3 26.8 43.2 15.2 9.1 96.1 97.2: 3.9 2.8
: Total Traders: 247 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 61 88 45 45 31 17 214 171:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/02/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
382,931 143,644 256,871 30,644 28,520 24,539
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.5% 67.1% 8.0% 7.4% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 46 45 15 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
104,611 5,678 22,301 14,463 5,350 37,187
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
27.3% 1.5% 5.8% 3.8% 1.4% 9.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
48 10 21 17 8 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,542 2,485
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322