Grains Report 05/05/2023

DJ Global Food Prices Rise for First Time in a Year, Led by Sugar, UN Says
By Yusuf Khan
Global food prices in April rose for the first time in a year, with rising costs for sugar leading the increase, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Friday.
The UN FAO’s food-price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods rose to 127.2 points in April, up 0.6% from March, the first time prices have risen in a year. The index still remains 19.7% below its level in April 2022, when prices had skyrocketed to record levels following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The shift in April was led by an increase in sugar prices, the UN agency said. The sugar price index moved to 149.4 points, up 17.6% from March, after poor harvests in India, Thailand and Europe as well as a slow start to the harvest in Brazil supported prices. According to FactSet, raw sugar prices are currently standing at 26 cents a pound, which is the highest since October 2011.
Meat prices also rose 1.3% in April to 114.5 points, led by pork and poultry prices. Higher Asian demand for pork and production issues for poultry were to blame, the FAO said.
Sugar and meat, however, remained outliers with all other categories continuing their decline which has been in place for several months now. In March, food prices had fallen for the 12th month in a row, led by lower grain prices.
“It is important that we continue to track very closely the evolution of prices and the reasons for increases in prices. As economies recover from significant slowdowns, demand will increase, exerting upward pressure on food prices,” FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said.
In April, the FAO’s cereal price index fell 1.7% from March to 136.1 points which is also 19.8% below its April 2022 value. High exports of Russian and Australian wheat pressured prices, the UN body said, while strong harvests in parts in South America pushed corn prices down 3.2%.
That said, there are worries over rice in Asia, where prices had increased in April. “The increase in rice prices is extremely worrisome and it is essential that the Black Sea initiative is renewed to avoid any other spikes in wheat and maize,” Mr. Torero said.
Elsewhere, vegetable-oil prices fell 1.3% in April–their fifth consecutive month of decline, while dairy prices fell 1.7% from March amid lower demand for milk powder.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – May 4
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for week ended April 30, 2023. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This Week 2429.7 397.0 340.6 431.8 52.7 1096.6 263.8 271.6 5725.2
Week Ago 2753.3 479.8 339.5 521.1 49.7 1042.9 264.6 238.2 6174.8
Year Ago 2967.8 664.8 280.2 317.5 48.9 1373.8 296.8 398.6 6833.7
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 275.4 44.9 63.9 74.2 4.0 337.8 20.3 9.8 876.9
Week Ago 266.5 39.8 35.3 59.1 1.9 281.4 24.3 9.9 746.2
To Date 18067.2 4398.3 2000.7 3931.2 138.1 14666.9 2319.5 344.7 49012.8
Year Ago 12131.6 2043.2 1594.4 3208.9 180.4 11960.4 1653.0 566.5 35595.3
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 485.9 134.2 30.2 59.0 4.1 131.7 14.2 42.3 936.2
Week Ago 514.7 136.1 1.4 55.5 – 169.2 9.8 80.2 999.7
To Date 17898.4 4950.5 257.4 2310.4 6.5 7443.3 1668.9 1556.7 41453.5
Year Ago 11013.0 2334.1 156.6 1869.9 27.0 5034.7 1045.5 1400.6 27711.4
EXPORTS
This Week 572.9 194.8 29.0 64.8 0.2 167.0 1.0 30.2 1072.3
Week Ago 499.1 185.1 31.1 37.0 0.4 159.1 57.7 117.9 1091.2
To Date 15341.6 4234.1 1088.4 2473.7 39.8 6749.5 1573.7 1353.9 37088.1
Year Ago 8517.1 1909.7 912.3 1798.1 71.2 4298.3 1048.2 1142.9 22939.5
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 136.7 13.7 21.2 30.3 2.0 195.8 5.1 10.5 439.9
Week Ago 138.7 40.6 16.8 25.7 1.0 199.8 4.4 50.5 501.5
To Date 3281.2 538.5 658.8 1210.6 62.3 7781.0 248.4 1050.4 16390.2
Year Ago 3059.2 345.7 666.8 1382.9 55.2 7057.4 225.3 2033.8 16311.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canaryseed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarmcom, or 204-414-9084)

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 08, 2023 33 Mar 22, 2023
OATS May May 08, 2023 8 May 04, 2023
WHEAT May May 08, 2023 137 May 04, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again yesterday on follow through buying seen in reaction to news that a couple of drones had flown into Moscow and might have tried to assassinate Mr. Putin. Some selling was seen before the news hit the market on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains, but it looks like the fund shorts have decided that futures are cheap enough and are covering short positions. More showers are in the forecast for this weekend and next week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued, but it now appears that Turkey will act as a go between for Russia in Wheat and other grains payments. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and to the UN. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export. The daily charts show mixed trends with futures closing at the top end of the recent trading range for all three markets.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 680 and 718 July. Support is at 622, 604, and 602 July, with resistance at 666, 670, and 683 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 819 and 860 July. Support is at 769, 762, and 736 July, with resistance at 808, 812, and 825 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 798, 784, and 769 July, and resistance is at 825, 845, and 861 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher once again yesterday on follow through buying. Futures continue to creep higher and have apparently made a major low on the charts. The buying started when Bunge took almost all of the First Notice Day deliveries and has continued since then. Trends are up on the daily charts with the price action since last Friday. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1820 July. Support is at 1782, 1769, and 1758 July and resistance is at 1806, 1820, and 1831 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed and Oats closed higher yesterday, with both markets rallying on follow through buying tied to news that drones had been seen in Moscow and the Russian government accusing Ukraine of sending them to kill Putin. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial and export buying interest. The daily charts show mixed trends with futures closing at the top end of the recent trading range for all three markets. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. Producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are in the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected this weekend and next week. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 580, 572, and 569 July, and resistance is at 597, 601, and 612 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 327 and 342 July. Support is at 310, 300, and 294 July, and resistance is at 324, 328, and 333 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mixed yesterday on news that drones had been seen in Moscow and the Russian government accusing Ukraine of sending them to kill Putin. There was early selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports this week indicate that the basis s forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are less than 25 million tons, or less than half a crop. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1392, 1384, and 1372 July, and resistance is at 1405, 1440, and 1456 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 418.00, 411.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 430.00, 434.00, and 443.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5510 and 5750 July. Support is at 5180, 5090, and 5060 July, with resistance at 5420, 5480, and 5560 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was mixed today on price action in Soybean Oil and as no industry was willing to sell due to the cheap prices. Demand is also a problem as India imports are at a 14 month low right now. The market saw late week selling last week on news that Indonesia will reduce its domestic supply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Trends are sideways on the daily charts. Canola was higher mostly on the Russian drone news and as domestic crush demand holds strong. It is very dry in the western Prairies and producers are concerned about planting the seeds into dry soils. Brazil is expected to dominate the world oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 701.00, 688.00, and 682.00 July, with resistance at 721.00, 739.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3350, 3290, and 3170 July, with resistance at 3460, 3530, and 3560 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 4
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 4, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 743.90 28.00 Jul 23 up 6.50
Basis: Thunder Bay 755.10 40.00 Jul 23 dn 7.80
Basis: Vancouver 770.10 55.00 Jul 23 dn 0.80
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 970.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 925.00 +57.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 842.50 +35.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 980.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 935.00 +57.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 +35.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 930.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 790.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4150.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 241.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4335)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 316,057 lots, or 15.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 4,856 4,856 4,856 4,856 4,836 4,856 20 1 2,803
Jul-23 4,809 4,898 4,765 4,894 4,796 4,840 44 224,027 157,683
Sep-23 4,756 4,842 4,722 4,837 4,760 4,788 28 56,873 37,840
Nov-23 4,741 4,816 4,706 4,812 4,742 4,768 26 33,231 31,129
Jan-24 4,743 4,803 4,699 4,802 4,742 4,770 28 1,668 5,006
Mar-24 4,723 4,789 4,688 4,789 4,723 4,742 19 257 5,212
Corn
Turnover: 629,679 lots, or 16.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,570 2,591 2,570 2,584 2,488 2,576 88 492 21,374
Jul-23 2,603 2,614 2,593 2,602 2,616 2,602 -14 349,067 881,366
Sep-23 2,593 2,605 2,583 2,594 2,612 2,592 -20 85,022 311,989
Nov-23 2,531 2,538 2,513 2,527 2,557 2,523 -34 139,063 330,367
Jan-24 2,520 2,533 2,508 2,521 2,553 2,518 -35 17,176 59,454
Mar-24 2,520 2,535 2,508 2,521 2,552 2,517 -35 38,859 42,764
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,585,036 lots, or 55.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,651 3,750 3,651 3,747 3,651 3,684 33 3,598 13,198
Jul-23 3,493 3,530 3,455 3,524 3,488 3,494 6 136,786 335,414
Aug-23 3,473 3,535 3,458 3,529 3,493 3,494 1 42,481 196,838
Sep-23 3,462 3,524 3,447 3,518 3,479 3,487 8 1,154,436 1,455,345
Nov-23 3,467 3,527 3,448 3,519 3,483 3,486 3 57,244 164,166
Dec-23 3,448 3,480 3,426 3,471 3,467 3,451 -16 34,402 56,020
Jan-24 3,420 3,455 3,400 3,448 3,438 3,428 -10 136,247 253,962
Mar-24 3,353 3,377 3,329 3,373 3,363 3,352 -11 19,842 30,646
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,049,654 lots, or 73.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,272 7,396 7,272 7,396 7,272 7,302 30 566 3,542
Jun-23 7,354 7,470 7,302 7,466 7,266 7,372 106 43,505 67,915
Jul-23 7,126 7,262 7,094 7,262 7,028 7,174 146 29,362 115,320
Aug-23 6,992 7,126 6,970 7,126 6,886 7,038 152 16,462 81,398
Sep-23 6,944 7,080 6,896 7,076 6,844 6,988 144 916,265 483,026
Oct-23 6,908 7,040 6,872 7,040 6,832 6,952 120 13,111 41,381
Nov-23 6,858 7,020 6,846 7,018 6,828 6,930 102 11,497 30,257
Dec-23 6,856 7,002 6,834 6,996 6,824 6,912 88 4,743 9,083
Jan-24 6,888 6,990 6,812 6,990 6,824 6,904 80 14,113 19,827
Feb-24 6,884 6,884 6,884 6,884 6,834 6,884 50 1 504
Mar-24 6,898 6,970 6,898 6,970 6,866 6,930 64 13 1,206
Apr-24 6,906 6,984 6,840 6,984 6,796 6,902 106 16 38
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 996,146 lots, or 75.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,008 8,008 7,860 7,988 8,008 8,006 -2 599 4,678
Jul-23 7,840 7,840 7,592 7,690 7,646 7,668 22 47,541 125,714
Aug-23 7,726 7,728 7,554 7,660 7,570 7,620 50 9,522 92,397
Sep-23 7,616 7,636 7,472 7,596 7,498 7,550 52 895,825 555,666
Nov-23 7,610 7,654 7,502 7,616 7,518 7,566 48 15,219 68,371
Dec-23 7,674 7,686 7,544 7,648 7,588 7,606 18 4,508 32,634
Jan-24 7,634 7,662 7,512 7,618 7,546 7,584 38 17,890 46,775
Mar-24 7,572 7,636 7,494 7,592 7,514 7,558 44 5,042 11,140
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

141 W. Jackson Blvd
. Suite 1340A, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800) 769-7021 | (312) 264-4364 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.
To SUBSCRIBE to Morning Rice Commets please click here.

To Unsubscribe from Morning Rice Comments please click here.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322