Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday on demand concerns and as some beneficial showers fall in western growing areas. Forecasts for rain are still showing in forecasts for West Texas but the rains are expected to be lighter and more scattered than last week. The rains last week were spotty so more rain in new areas would be very beneficial. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has held strong and as the Chinese economy gets better after all of the Covid lockdowns. The Fed raised interest rates by another 0.25% yesterday and there are ideas that the economy might suffer more with the higher interest rates Chart trends are sideways or down.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.16 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 75 bales, from 75 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 231,300 bales this year and 26,900 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 24,600 bales this year and 0 bales next ear.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7820 and 7620 July. Support is at 78.10, 77.70, and 77.00 July, with resistance of 80.30, 81.30 and 81.80 July.
DJ U.S. Mar Cotton Exports-May 4
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 23 Feb 23 Jan 23 Mar 22
Upland, under 1 inch 17,111,953 5,320,074 3,732,872 9,185,877
1 to 1 1/8 inch 109,349,748 101,325,240 74,335,898 128,431,547
upland 1 1/8 and over 4,995,918 2,637,406 5,677,678 8,012,280
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 212,293,265 191,053,605 130,708,954 278,570,603
All cotton 343,750,884 300,336,325 214,466,402 424,200,307
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Mar 23 Feb 23 Jan 23 Mar 22
Upland, under 1 inch 78,595 24,435 17,145 42,190
1 to 1 1/8 inch 502,239 465,383 341,422 589,881
upland 1 1/8 and over 22,946 12,114 26,077 36,800
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 975,055 877,502 600,341 1,279,464
All cotton 1,578,835 1,379,433 984,986 1,948,336
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly higher yesterday, but the nearby months closed a little lower on ideas that FCOJ had found at least a temporary top in prices. The charts show a sideways range has developed and futures are near the low end of the range. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 260.00, 248.00, and 242.00 July, with resistance at 272.00, 275.00, and 181.00 July
General Comments: New York and London were higher on reports of light offers against good weather and high production expectations for Brazil. There are still tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Arabica harvest should be active in the next few weeks. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.663 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 175.29 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 330 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 180.00 July. Support is at 182.00, 18\0.00, and 177.00 July, and resistance is at 189.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2450, 2490, and 2520 July.
General Comments: New York closed higher, and London closed unchanged to lower, with the market hurt by good growing conditions in Brazil for New York Concern was noted about Chinese demand and the Brazil harvest is now just a few weeks away. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2470 and 2340 July. Support is at 2500, 2460, and 2360 July and resistance is at 2600, 2650, and 2680 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 675.00, 672.00, and 658.00 August and resistance is at 714.00, 730.00, and 733.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in follow through speculative selling as the buy side takes a breather and tries to consolidate recent gins but as ideas of tight supplies based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.907 million tons, down 6.9% from last year. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.504 million bags. ICE NY said that 23 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 953 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2820 July. Support is at 2850, 2810, and 2770 July, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2950 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2170 July. Support is at 2170, 2150, and 2120 July, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2290 July.