Grains Report 05/04/2023

DJ U.S. March Grain Imports-May 4
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2023—- —-Feb 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 930,896 2,052,626 1,019,088 2,247,089
spring wheat 1,236,035 2,725,457 217,728 480,090
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 2,166,931 4,778,083 1,236,816 2,727,179
barley 42,681,477 94,112,657 33,813,334 74,558,401
oats 1,169,984 2,579,815 1,223,755 2,698,380
corn 54,997,706 121,269,942 24,209,311 53,381,531
other corn 8,330,554 18,368,872 6,434,043 14,187,065
TOTAL CORN 63,328,260 139,638,813 30,643,354 67,568,596

DJ U.S. Mar Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-May 4
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Mar 2023—- —-Feb 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 20,071,683 44,258,061 60,314,293 132,993,016
palm kernel oil 28,337,293 62,483,731 40,556,772 89,427,682
palm oil 150,196,136 331,182,480 193,440,701 426,536,746
soybean 34,611,119 76,317,517 27,527,709 60,698,598
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 15,180,833 33,473,737 15,213,197 33,545,099
rapeseed oil
edible 258,409,440 569,792,815 217,679,868 479,984,109
rapeseed oil,
inedible 32,322 71,270 86,245 190,170

DJ U.S. Mar Grain Exports-May 4
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 23 Feb 23 Jan 23 Mar 22
Barley 954,536 1,415,528 1,238,917 409,237
Corn /1 4,920,765,000 3,274,020,000 3,171,032,000 7,446,178,000
Sorghum 388,499,000 214,226,000 86,857,000 1,299,258,000
Oats 857,756 3,093,709 2,842,981 2,590,323
Rye 9,984 0 225,469 170,407
Wheat /1 1,361,131,603 1,871,804,084 1,788,623,239 1,712,412,944
wheat flour /1 15,662,470 12,502,989 12,279,095 20,623,577
Malt 30,337,425 30,691,942 30,426,272 21,290,948
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Mar 23 Feb 23 Jan 23 Mar 22
Barley 43,841 65,014 56,902 18,796
Corn /1 193,719,973 128,891,151 124,836,734 293,140,071
Sorghum 15,294,373 8,433,619 3,419,374 51,149,003
Oats 59,094 213,137 195,864 178,457
Rye 393 0 8,876 6,709
Wheat /1 50,012,512 68,776,321 65,719,979 62,919,759
wheat flour /1 345,298 275,644 270,708 454,672
Malt 66,882,585 67,664,161 67,078,459 46,938,514
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. Mar Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-May 4
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Mar 23 Feb 23 Jan 23 Mar 22
soybeans 3,135,931,445 5,375,073,024 8,559,249,463 3,184,487,751
soyoil 5,807,999 11,856,133 7,000,962 120,901,482
crude 607,345 6,410,477 202,274 110,428,276
refined 188,702 77,424 302,281 82,579
other/1 4,832,659 5,185,668 6,209,943 10,056,110
hydrogenated 179,293 182,564 286,464 334,517
cottonseed oil 7,760,682 3,582,216 2,973,369 3,325,824
crude 64,626 86,949 107,564 218,278
refined 7,021,911 2,649,243 2,709,131 2,426,630
other/1 438,865 648,577 83,898 408,758
hydrogenated 235,280 197,447 72,776 272,158
sunseeds 187,594 135,909 49,969 169,981
sunseed oil 4,007,798 4,094,166 4,996,193 7,422,149
rapeseed 14,647,201 19,526,555 15,328,254 22,020,840
rapeseed oil 4,043,022 3,819,488 11,428,314 14,236,389
crude 600,505 1,541,864 7,777,646 3,183,106
refined 3,442,517 2,277,624 3,650,668 11,053,283
linseed meal 151,680 100,600 170,430 134,174
cottonseed meal 7,229,070 5,242,655 4,545,641 2,467,303
soymeal 1,088,157,309 717,432,075 1,033,322,929 915,366,094
soymeal/flour 235,649,274 199,550,240 359,537,287 167,076,845
soymeal hulls 12,547,000 8,319,000 12,114,000 4,082,000
lard 1,778,477 1,049,477 952,510 1,452,756
edible tallow 3,897,914 4,491,008 6,122,653 6,981,604
inedible tallow 4,035,371 8,383,515 26,948,012 7,988,346
ch white grease 12,440 0 0 0
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Mar 23 Feb 23 Jan 23 Mar 22
soybeans 115,224,573 197,498,098 314,495,353 117,008,694
soyoil 12,804,448 26,138,304 15,434,482 266,542,188
crude 1,338,967 14,132,685 445,938 243,452,717
refined 416,017 170,691 666,416 182,056
other/1 10,654,191 11,432,443 13,690,583 22,169,931
hydrogenated 395,273 402,485 631,545 737,484
cottonseed oil 17,109,378 7,897,436 6,555,158 7,332,188
crude 142,476 191,690 237,138 481,221
refined 15,480,666 5,840,582 5,972,613 5,349,804
other/1 967,532 1,429,868 184,963 901,157
hydrogenated 518,704 435,296 160,444 600,006
sunseeds 413,574 299,628 110,163 374,744
sunseed oil 8,835,684 9,026,093 11,014,722 16,363,040
rapeseed 32,291,556 43,048,692 33,793,021 48,547,650
rapeseed oil 8,913,339 8,420,531 25,195,124 31,385,871
crude 1,323,887 3,399,229 17,146,777 7,017,549
refined 7,589,452 5,021,302 8,048,347 24,368,322
linseed meal 167 111 188 148
cottonseed meal 7,969 5,779 5,011 2,720
soymeal 1,199,476 790,825 1,139,032 1,009,008
soymeal flour/me 259,756 219,964 396,318 184,169
soymeal hulls 13,831 9,170 13,353 4,500
lard 3,920,871 2,313,701 2,099,925 3,202,779
edible tallow 8,593,431 9,900,980 13,498,142 15,391,805
inedible tallow 8,896,472 18,482,490 59,410,207 17,611,291
ch white grease 27,426 0 0 0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 4
For the week ended Apr 27, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 211.1 279.7 18902.3 19415.7 2419.1 1292.0
hrw 53.6 42.0 5109.7 7501.2 565.9 215.1
srw 69.1 112.0 2914.6 2872.4 395.9 587.8
hrs 65.5 73.6 5747.9 5476.0 764.9 312.5
white 4.3 52.1 4677.5 3370.1 579.8 139.7
durum 18.6 0.0 452.7 196.0 112.6 36.9
corn -315.6 121.0 38136.3 58298.0 12765.7 2543.4
soybeans 289.7 67.0 50703.5 58311.8 3633.9 1836.8
soymeal 179.6 -17.0 9742.6 9886.3 2490.7 326.5
soyoil 14.0 0.0 117.5 665.1 60.1 0.6
upland cotton 231.3 26.9 12252.4 14723.3 4003.8 1483.4
pima cotton 24.6 0.0 282.5 467.5 94.1 4.7
sorghum 1.2 0.0 1594.8 6805.1 495.7 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 12.0 20.5 3.5 6.0
rice 46.6 0.0 1831.5 2615.1 466.8 18.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday in reaction to news that a couple of drones had flown into Moscow and might have tried to assassinate Mr. Putin. Some selling was seen before the news hit the market on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. More showers are in the forecast for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued, but it now appears that Turkey will act as a go between for Russia in Wheat and other grains payments. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and to the UN. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export. The daily charts show mixed trends with futures closing at the top end of the recent trading range for all three markets.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 626, 604, and 602 July, with resistance at 626, 645, and 666 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 736, 730, and 724 July, with resistance at 764, 781, and 808 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 768, 762, and 756 July, and resistance is at 786, 806, and 814 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher once again yesterday on follow through buying. The buying started when Bunge took almost all of the First Notice Day deliveries and has continued since then. Trends are up on the daily charts with the price action since last Friday. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1820 July. Support is at 1769, 1758, and 1749 July and resistance is at 1806, 1820, and 1831 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday, with both markets rallying on news that drones had been seen in Moscow and the Russian government accusing Ukraine of sending them to kill Putin. Corn is still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial and export buying interest. The daily charts show mixed trends with futures closing at the top end of the recent trading range for all three markets. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. Warmer and drier weather for good planting is expected this weekend and next week. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 572, 569, and 566 July, and resistance is at 590, 597, and 601 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 300, 294, and 288 July, and resistance is at 310, 324, and 328 July.

DJ U.S. Ethanol Stocks Hit Lowest Level Since December
By Kirk Maltais
Total ethanol inventories in the U.S. dropped by nearly 1 million barrels in this past week, bringing stocks to their lowest point since late last year.
In the latest weekly report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said daily ethanol inventories totaled 23.36 million barrels for the week ended April 28, which is the lowest they have been since the first week of last December. It also well exceeds what analysts were calling for, with those surveyed by Dow Jones forecasting between 24.1 million barrels and 24.45 million barrels.
The daily production average posted a slight move, climbing 9,000 barrels to 976,000 barrels a day. Analysts had estimated between 954,000 barrels and 982,000 barrels a day.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on news that drones had been seen in Moscow and the Russian government accusing Ukraine of sending them to kill Putin. There was early selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers. Reports this week indicate that the basis s forming in Brazil, but prices for Brazil Soybeans remain cheap compared to those found in the US. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are less than 25 million tons, or less than half a crop. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there are concerns about ocean water temperatures that are increasing rapidly in the Pacific and have alarmed some forecasters.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1392, 1384, and 1372 July, and resistance is at 1417, 1435, and 1440 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 420.00, 411.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 430.00, 434.00, and 443.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5090, 5060, and 4990 July, with resistance at 5270, 5420, and 5480 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was mixed today on price action in Soybean Oil and as no industry was willing to sell due to the cheap prices. Demand is also a problem as India imports are at a 14 month low right now. The market saw late week selling last week on news that Indonesia will reduce its domestic supply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are down on the daily charts and the daily charts now look oversold. Canola was higher on the Russian drone news and as domestic crush demand holds strong. Brazil is expected to dominate the world oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 701.00, 688.00, and 682.00 July, with resistance at 721.00, 739.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3290, 3170, and 3050 July, with resistance at 3460, 3530, and 3560 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 3
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for May 3, 2023.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 737.40 28.00 Jul 23 up 4.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 762.90 47.00 Jul 23 up 6.50
Basis: Vancouver 770.90 55.00 Jul 23 up 6.50
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 940.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 867.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 807.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 950.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 877.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 817.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 770.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4100.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 238.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.451)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 190,508 lots, or 9.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 4,867 4,899 4,655 4,766 4,867 4,836 -31 747 2,803
Jul-23 4,815 4,843 4,760 4,803 4,822 4,796 -26 130,356 154,332
Sep-23 4,789 4,806 4,731 4,758 4,791 4,760 -31 36,789 34,541
Nov-23 4,761 4,783 4,717 4,740 4,771 4,742 -29 21,968 32,225
Jan-24 4,743 4,773 4,695 4,721 4,756 4,742 -14 586 5,013
Mar-24 4,736 4,755 4,701 4,718 4,754 4,723 -31 62 5,206
Corn
Turnover: 805,762 lots, or 20.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,655 2,655 2,407 2,570 2,616 2,488 -128 4,547 21,585
Jul-23 2,641 2,656 2,589 2,601 2,643 2,616 -27 470,028 880,418
Sep-23 2,637 2,651 2,589 2,594 2,635 2,612 -23 110,107 300,458
Nov-23 2,580 2,591 2,526 2,530 2,571 2,557 -14 150,305 312,928
Jan-24 2,572 2,589 2,522 2,526 2,572 2,553 -19 14,549 55,761
Mar-24 2,576 2,585 2,521 2,522 2,567 2,552 -15 56,226 36,732
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,154,284 lots, or 40.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,641 3,750 3,620 3,750 3,643 3,651 8 2,295 14,888
Jul-23 3,512 3,523 3,463 3,476 3,484 3,488 4 137,424 332,301
Aug-23 3,506 3,521 3,471 3,484 3,486 3,493 7 52,085 192,859
Sep-23 3,503 3,510 3,460 3,469 3,478 3,479 1 766,599 1,410,343
Nov-23 3,510 3,510 3,462 3,473 3,478 3,483 5 61,975 160,844
Dec-23 3,483 3,485 3,444 3,452 3,469 3,467 -2 37,233 57,823
Jan-24 3,453 3,465 3,416 3,426 3,454 3,438 -16 81,071 239,568
Mar-24 3,386 3,389 3,347 3,352 3,384 3,363 -21 15,602 29,116
Palm Oil
Turnover: 769,574 lots, or 52.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,250 7,350 7,130 7,350 7,250 7,272 22 491 4,062
Jun-23 7,280 7,344 7,148 7,342 7,272 7,266 -6 38,850 79,918
Jul-23 7,046 7,120 6,910 7,118 7,056 7,028 -28 25,779 108,489
Aug-23 6,920 6,986 6,760 6,984 6,920 6,886 -34 15,719 77,643
Sep-23 6,842 6,938 6,708 6,934 6,842 6,844 2 642,289 478,306
Oct-23 6,758 6,920 6,712 6,908 6,838 6,832 -6 14,637 39,960
Nov-23 6,766 6,910 6,710 6,894 6,838 6,828 -10 17,870 29,045
Dec-23 6,756 6,902 6,704 6,872 6,832 6,824 -8 6,425 8,879
Jan-24 6,792 6,884 6,704 6,878 6,828 6,824 -4 7,446 17,621
Feb-24 6,758 6,876 6,728 6,846 6,832 6,834 2 18 504
Mar-24 6,772 6,910 6,772 6,862 6,872 6,866 -6 21 1,211
Apr-24 6,818 6,862 6,710 6,846 6,850 6,796 -54 29 32
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 761,659 lots, or 57.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,692 8,100 7,690 8,000 7,784 8,008 224 1,038 4,682
Jul-23 7,608 7,760 7,508 7,750 7,622 7,646 24 37,747 121,341
Aug-23 7,506 7,714 7,456 7,714 7,572 7,570 -2 6,414 89,626
Sep-23 7,470 7,606 7,352 7,604 7,470 7,498 28 653,847 545,721
Nov-23 7,450 7,622 7,388 7,622 7,498 7,518 20 18,905 65,741
Dec-23 7,516 7,656 7,454 7,650 7,568 7,588 20 14,406 32,399
Jan-24 7,524 7,624 7,396 7,622 7,528 7,546 18 22,370 43,790
Mar-24 7,404 7,604 7,384 7,596 7,508 7,514 6 6,932 10,712
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322