Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Softs Report 05/02/2023
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering and some commercial buying in light to moderate volume trading. Forecasts for rain are still showing in forecasts for West Texas but the rains are expected to be lighter and more scattered than last week. The rains last week were spotty so more rain in new areas would be very beneficial. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways or down. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns. Chinese CPI data was market positive this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.60 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 75 bales, from 75 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.80, 78.10, and 77.70 July, with resistance of 81.80, 82.10 and 82.70 July.
Date 23-Apr 16-Apr 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 15 12 15 14
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly lower yesterday on what appeared to be follow through speculative long liquidation combined with new commercial selling. May futures closed higher with the initial deliveries underway. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 2 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 30 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 260.00 and 250.00 July. Support is at 260.00, 248.00, and 242.00 July, with resistance at 272.00, 275.00, and 181.00 July
General Comments: New York was a little lower last week and London was closed on reports of good weather and high production expectations for Brazil against tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta. New York saw speculative selling tied to good weather forecasts for Brazil. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Arabica harvest should be active in the next few weeks. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.672 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 177.95 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 330 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 180.00 July. Support is at 182.00, 18\0.00, and 177.00 July, and resistance is at 189.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2520 July. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2440, 2490, and 2520 July.
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London was closed with the market supported by tight supplies once again The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 18,494 contracts of Sugar 11 were delivered against May futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2690 July. Support is at 2500, 2460, and 2360 July and resistance is at 2650, 2680, and 2720 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 742.00 August. Support is at 693.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 730.00, 733.00, and 736.00 August.
COCOAQuestions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
General Comments: New York closed narrowly mixed and London was closed in May Day holiday trading on ideas of tight supplies based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.859 million tons, down 7.4% from last year. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.461 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 930 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2890, 2850, and 2810 July, with resistance at 2980, 3010, and 3040 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2170 July. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 July, with resistance at 2250, 2290, and 2320 July.