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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 05/02/2023

By Jack Scoville On May 2, 2023 - 10:52 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 2

Source: CME Group

Contract Quantity Next Trade

Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available

SOYBEAN OIL May May 03, 2023 23 Apr 25, 2023

ROUGH RICE May May 03, 2023 27 Apr 25, 2023

KC HRW WHEAT May May 03, 2023 45 Apr 17, 2023

OATS May May 03, 2023 1 Apr 28, 2023

WHEAT May May 03, 2023 686 May 01, 2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 1

WA_GR101

Washington, DC Mon May 1, 2023 USDA Market News

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED

THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,

COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 27, 2023

— METRIC TONS —

————————————————————————-

CURRENT PREVIOUS

———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR

GRAIN 04/27/2023 04/20/2023 04/28/2022 TO DATE TO DATE

BARLEY 0 0 73 2,154 10,156

CORN 1,518,202 938,841 1,696,450 23,903,011 36,605,552

FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324

MIXED 0 0 0 0 0

OATS 0 0 0 6,486 600

RYE 0 0 0 0 0

SORGHUM 110,103 53,789 217,881 1,414,786 5,306,921

SOYBEANS 401,976 377,728 606,106 47,451,915 47,252,722

SUNFLOWER 0 0 288 2,408 2,260

WHEAT 358,273 363,826 392,443 18,249,020 18,765,739

Total 2,388,554 1,734,184 2,913,241 91,029,980 107,944,274

————————————————————————-

CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date	23-Apr	16-Apr	2022	Avg
Cotton Planted	15	12	15	14
Corn Planted	26	14	13	26
Corn Emerged	6	3	3	5
Soybeans Planted	19	9	7	11
Sorghum Planted	21	18	20	22
Rice Planted	63	51	42	49
Rice Emerged	39	30	23	29
Peanuts Planted	8	4	9	10
Sugarbeets Planted	24	17	17	38
Oats Planted	49	42	44	52
Oats Emerged	33	28	30	35
Barley Planted	19	10	34	35
Barley Emerged	3	1	9	10
Winter Wheat Headed	25	18	21	23
Spring Wheat Planted	12	5	18	22
Spring Wheat Emerged	2	1	5	6

Crop Condition
	Very Poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week	19	23	30	25	3
Winter Wheat Last Week	18	23	33	23	3
Winter Wheat Last Year	22	21	30	24	3

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday and Winter Wheat markets made new lows for the move on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. More showers are in the forecast for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The showers are expected to be more scattered this week. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued, but it now appears that Turkey will act as a go between for Russia in Wheat and other grains payments. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and to the UN. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 614, 608, and 602 July, with resistance at 645, 665, and 671 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 748, 742, and 736 July, with resistance at 781, 808, and 822 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 784, 780, and 774 July, and resistance is at 847, 860, and 870 May.

RICE:

General Comments : Rice was higher again yesterday on follow through buying from Friday after news that major commercial Bunge had taken just about all of the First Notice Day deliveries. Futures had traded in relatively narrow range previously in the week. Trends are turned up on the daily charts with the price action on Friday. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.

Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

Chart Analysis : Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1766 and 1820 July. Support is at 1726, 1712, and 1686 July and resistance is at 1773, 1795, and 1806 July.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments : Corn and Oats closed lower again yesterday, with Corn still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial and export buying interest and the weakness in Wheat futures. Oats were lower. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 July, and resistance is at 597, 601, and 612 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 300, 294, and 288 July, and resistance is at 324, 328, and 333 July.

SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail was not seen in trading due to the May Day holiday in Brazil. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1411, 1397 and 1384 July, and resistance is at 1435, 1440, and 1456 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 428.00, 422.00, and 429.00 July, and resistance is at 434.00, 443.00, and 445.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5060, 4920, and 4800 July, with resistance at 5270, 5420, and 5480 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on price action in Soybean Oil. The market saw late week selling last week on news that Indonesia will reduce its domestic supply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are down on the daily charts and the daily charts now look oversold. Canola was mixed, with nearby months higher and deferred months a little lower. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 688.00, 682.00, and 676.00 July, with resistance at 716.00, 721.00, and 739.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3440, 3400, and 3340 July, with resistance at 3560, 3660, and 3670 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-30 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 21%, AmSpec Says

Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the April 1-30 period are estimated to have fallen 21% on month to 1,104,726 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.

The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:

(All figures in metric tons)

April 1-30 March 1-31

RBD Palm Olein 318,313 422,069

RBD Palm Oil 107,442 78,375

RBD Palm Stearin 103,415 136,720

Crude Palm Oil 204,392 314,790

Total* 1,104,726 1,402,142

*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Error! Hyperlink reference not valid.Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis


	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
April	80 May	175 May	105 May	90 May
May	75 May	175 May	105 May	90 May
June	100 July	173 July	70 July	110 July

DJ ICE Canola Cash Close – May 1

WINNIPEG, May 1 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for May 1, 2023.

Source: ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price Basis Contract Change

*Par Region 723.40 -29.00 May 23 dn 5.20

Basis: Thunder Bay 751.60 47.00 Jul 23 up 13.20

Basis: Vancouver 759.60 55.00 Jul 23 dn 3.80

*Quote for previous day

Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 2

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports