Softs Report 05/01/2023

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher last week on what appeared to be speculative short covering and some commercial buying amid improved export sales. The US stock market was higher on ideas of a solid economy which could benefit Cotton demand. Forecasts for rain are showing in forecasts for West Texas. The rains last week were spotty so more rain in new areas would be very beneficial. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways or down. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns. Chinese CPI data was market positive this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 78.09 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 75 bales, from 75 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.80, 78.10, and 77.70 July, with resistance of 81.80, 82.10 and 82.70 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 211,321
: Positions :
: 27,425 51,087 49,189 53,551 84,451 69,195 14,267 199,360 198,993: 11,961 12,327
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: 1,025) :
: -4,531 5,409 436 5,799 -7,793 2,090 2,133 3,793 185: -2,768 840
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 24.2 23.3 25.3 40.0 32.7 6.8 94.3 94.2: 5.7 5.8
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 87 83 54 55 46 22 213 210:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week on what appeared to be follow through speculative long liquidation combined with new commercial selling. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently, but the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 260.00 and 250.00 July. Support is at 260.00, 248.00, and 242.00 July, with resistance at 272.00, 275.00, and 181.00 July

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,100 :
: Positions :
: 1,024 6,800 1,287 143 40 4,399 494 47 891 406 2,364 :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 :
: -48 5 3 16 7 220 22 -15 143 -58 -411 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 56.2 10.6 1.2 0.3 36.4 4.1 0.4 7.4 3.4 19.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 8 9 4 . . 22 . . 10 9 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was a little lower last week and London closed higher and made new highs for the last several years or longer on tight Robusta supplies for the market amid strong demand for Robusta. New York saw speculative selling tied to good weather forecasts for Brazil. The Brazil harvest of Robusta is in full swing and promising to help relieve tight supplies in that market. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.680 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.22 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 330 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 180.00 July. Support is at 186.00, 182.00, and 180.00 July, and resistance is at 189.00, 196.00 and 198.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2520 July. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2440, 2490, and 2520 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 228,924
: Positions :
: 39,555 19,701 64,208 49,032 126,505 68,420 11,796 221,215 222,209: 7,709 6,715
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -672) :
: 2,770 3,178 440 -3,739 -3,238 1,066 62 537 444: -1,209 -1,115
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.3 8.6 28.0 21.4 55.3 29.9 5.2 96.6 97.1: 3.4 2.9
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 80 109 102 123 51 24 312 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/25/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
124,588 42,500 89,505 3,716 6,123 2,592
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 34.1% 71.8% 3.0% 4.9% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 38 40 6 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
44,264 4,466 6,848 7,631 1,356 10,047
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
35.5% 3.6% 5.5% 6.1% 1.1% 8.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
61 5 14 18 9 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,990 3,651
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.6% 2.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher and made new highs for the move with the market supported by tight supplies once again The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions. Brazil will grow 637.1 million metric tons of sugarcane, Conab said in its first report for the season on sugar cane, sugar and ethanol production. In the 2022-2023 growing season Brazil grew 610.1 million tons of cane. Sugar production will reach 38.8 million tons and the country’s mills will produce a total of 33.2 billion liters of ethanol in the current season. Center-south mills crushed 13.6 million metric tons of cane in the period, an increase of 157% from the same period a year earlier, Unica said Thursday. They produced 541,900 tons of sugar, up 313%, and made 768 million liters of ethanol, an increase of 95%.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 18,494 contracts of Sugar 11 were delivered against May futures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2690 July. Support is at 2560, 2500, and 2460 July and resistance is at 2690, 2720, and 2750 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 742.00 August. Support is at 693.00, 675.00, and 672.00 August and resistance is at 730.00, 733.00, and 736.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,235,305
: Positions :
: 222,410 59,845 284,936 360,633 739,174 261,467 100,832 1,129,445 1,184,787: 105,860 50,518
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: 48,061) :
: 7,522 2,704 30,470 11,032 17,214 2,321 -477 51,345 49,911: -3,284 -1,849
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.0 4.8 23.1 29.2 59.8 21.2 8.2 91.4 95.9: 8.6 4.1
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 33 69 63 76 47 21 223 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/25/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
81,677 32,980 61,196 7,162 3,522 997
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 40.4% 74.9% 8.8% 4.3% 1.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
120 33 39 10 3 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,321 3,663 3,893 467 2,036 3,436
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
32.2% 4.5% 4.8% 0.6% 2.5% 4.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
39 8 18 5 6 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,421 2,934
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.9% 3.6%

COCOA
General Comments: New York posted slight gains and London closed lower last week on ideas of tight supplies based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.859 million tons, down 7.4% from last year. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.461 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 930 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2880 and 2820 July. Support is at 2890, 2850, and 2810 July, with resistance at 3010, 3040, and 3070 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 2170 July. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2150 July, with resistance at 2250, 2290, and 2320 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 397,587
: Positions :
: 100,226 61,090 114,338 105,671 175,308 62,147 35,991 382,382 386,726: 15,205 10,861
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -9,591) :
: 2,549 646 -2,576 -6,393 -5,785 -2,600 -1,393 -9,021 -9,108: -570 -483
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.2 15.4 28.8 26.6 44.1 15.6 9.1 96.2 97.3: 3.8 2.7
: Total Traders: 255 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 98 59 88 43 45 32 19 221 172:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 04/25/2023
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/ Swap Dealers
Processor/User
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Futures Europe
420,581 156,139 275,844 36,012 26,902 34,749
Percent of Open Interest Represented by each Category of Trader
100% 37.1% 65.6% 8.6% 6.4% 8.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
170 45 44 17 8 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
104,550 6,215 23,269 15,066 6,046 44,941
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
24.9% 1.5% 5.5% 3.6% 1.4% 10.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
49 8 19 21 10 24
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,855 2,615
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 0.6%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322