Grains Report 05/01/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL May May 02, 2023 449 Apr 25, 2023
ROUGH RICE May May 02, 2023 78 Apr 21, 2023
OATS May May 02, 2023 13 Apr 28, 2023
WHEAT May May 02, 2023 579 Apr 27, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again last week on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. More showers are in the forecast for this week and will be welcome as not all areas got hit last week. The weekly export sales report was bad once again. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. The western Great Plains are getting showers and some areas are seeing very beneficial precipitation this week. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 623, 620, and 614 July, with resistance at 645, 665, and 671 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 760, 754, and 748 July, with resistance at 781, 808, and 822 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 784, 780, and 774 July, and resistance is at 847, 860, and 870 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 429,579
: Positions :
: 47,522 147,884 124,680 81,840 63,839 129,139 55,949 383,181 392,352: 46,398 37,227
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -29,349) :
: -4,008 6,932 -16,659 -5,869 -16,087 -3,567 -1,646 -30,102 -27,459: 754 -1,889
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.1 34.4 29.0 19.1 14.9 30.1 13.0 89.2 91.3: 10.8 8.7
: Total Traders: 364 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 108 119 85 80 44 32 289 283:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 184,479
: Positions :
: 27,375 39,379 35,723 39,532 65,502 61,120 20,642 163,750 161,247: 20,729 23,232
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -6,261) :
: -64 1,632 -2,202 251 -5,764 -2,511 -505 -4,525 -6,838: -1,735 578
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.8 21.3 19.4 21.4 35.5 33.1 11.2 88.8 87.4: 11.2 12.6
: Total Traders: 210 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 40 50 53 55 70 35 22 159 167:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 54,972 :
: Positions :
: 28,628 29,573 981 0 77 7,274 10,684 1,814 3,181 77 2,129 :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 :
: -1,656 -7,022 -244 0 -62 -1,766 1,682 -284 -1,094 -218 -482 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.1 53.8 1.8 0.0 0.1 13.2 19.4 3.3 5.8 0.1 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96 :
: 49 34 . 0 . 12 14 10 8 . 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher last week as big buying hit the pit on Friday after news that major commercial Bunge had taken just about all of the First Notice Day deliveries. Futures had traded in relatively narrow range previously in the week. Trends are turned up on the daily charts with the price action on Friday. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1766 and 1820 July. Support is at 1712, 1686, and 16800 July and resistance is at 1758, 1773, and 1795 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 8,098 :
: Positions :
: 4,253 4,150 0 0 0 485 1,495 21 1,143 555 448 :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 :
: -70 168 0 0 0 44 -127 0 7 7 -586 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.5 51.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 18.5 0.3 14.1 6.9 5.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 52 :
: 17 19 0 0 0 . 10 . 12 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower again last week, with Corn still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial and export buying interest. The export sales report was bad and China cancelled purchases again. Oats were lower and both markets started to form new legs down on the weekly charts. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 572, 566, and 560 July, and resistance is at 597, 601, and 612 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 300, 294, and 288 July, and resistance is at 324, 328, and 333 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,569,537
: Positions :
: 149,191 238,521 354,629 489,358 656,017 424,072 107,805 1,417,250 1,356,972: 152,287 212,565
: :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -120,725) :
: -27,891 42,209 -79,847 -2,423 -71,890 -7,909 -6,335 -118,069 -115,864: -2,656 -4,861
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.5 15.2 22.6 31.2 41.8 27.0 6.9 90.3 86.5: 9.7 13.5
: :
: Total Traders: 738 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 105 146 185 338 367 55 29 617 623:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,814 :
: Positions :
: 1,171 1,252 103 110 19 336 1,426 47 537 60 321 :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 :
: -92 -434 -46 2 -6 42 -32 47 -38 60 -36 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.3 26.0 2.1 2.3 0.4 7.0 29.6 1.0 11.2 1.2 6.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 7 5 . . . . 6 . 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week on selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1371 July. Support is at 1397, 1384 and 1372 July, and resistance is at 1422, 1435, and 1440 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 428.00, 422.00, and 429.00 July, and resistance is at 434.00, 443.00, and 445.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5060, 4920, and 4800 July, with resistance at 5190, 5270, and 5420 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 750,013
: Positions :
: 106,773 47,890 184,119 231,776 391,379 175,851 44,337 698,518 667,724: 51,495 82,289
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -105,995) :
: -37,941 14,432 -41,157 -7,715 -65,730 -16,234 -10,543 -103,047 -102,997: -2,948 -2,998
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 6.4 24.5 30.9 52.2 23.4 5.9 93.1 89.0: 6.9 11.0
: Total Traders: 520 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 106 167 164 198 56 23 434 424:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 495,888
: Positions :
: 39,018 81,349 97,018 201,496 256,827 126,733 27,758 464,265 462,951: 31,623 32,937
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -27,363) :
: 4,897 9,873 -18,405 -7,839 -22,268 -3,643 1,108 -24,990 -29,692: -2,373 2,328
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 16.4 19.6 40.6 51.8 25.6 5.6 93.6 93.4: 6.4 6.6
: Total Traders: 313 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 80 88 94 92 40 25 243 246:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 482,573
: Positions :
: 91,668 27,927 109,361 111,179 307,392 121,467 6,727 433,675 451,407: 48,898 31,166
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 (Change in open interest: -21,975) :
: -14,108 5,647 -7,330 6,786 -14,881 -1,330 -1,377 -15,983 -17,941: -5,993 -4,034
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.0 5.8 22.7 23.0 63.7 25.2 1.4 89.9 93.5: 10.1 6.5
: Total Traders: 285 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 42 82 87 101 37 16 244 209:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today but saw late week selling last week on news that Indonesia will reduce its domestic supply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Trends are still sideways on the weekly charts but are down on the daily charts and the daily charts now look oversold. Canola was lower last week on weakness in Chicago. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 700.00, 694.00, and 688.00 July, with resistance at 721.00, 739.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3440, 3400, and 3340 July, with resistance at 3560, 3660, and 3670 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 52,045 :
: Positions :
: 45,635 31,525 1,290 9,040 540 0 200 0 1,230 7,390 3,350 :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 :
: 1,170 940 80 -200 -80 0 0 0 -750 -240 540 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 87.7 60.6 2.5 17.4 1.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.4 14.2 6.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 32 :
: 9 11 . 4 . 0 . 0 . 7 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 25, 2023
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 262,833 :
: Positions :
: 200,696 145,421 9,443 1,730 1,082 20,613 72,314 21,626 1,341 11,915 6,773 :
: Changes from: April 18, 2023 :
: -7,781 -15,990 -243 -516 296 -3,067 3,182 -2,997 -478 2,000 -2,543 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 76.4 55.3 3.6 0.7 0.4 7.8 27.5 8.2 0.5 4.5 2.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 298 :
: 51 68 4 5 4 28 66 22 43 69 45 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 28
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 728.60 -5.90 May 2023 dn 26.30
Track Thunder Bay 738.40 35.00 Jul 2023 dn 5.20
Track Vancouver 763.40 60.00 Jul 2023 dn 5.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322