Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Core PCE Price Index MoM & YoY, Personal Income MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, Employment Cost Index QoQ, Employment Cost-Benefits QoQ, Employment Cost-Wages QoQ, and PCE MoM & YoY at 7:30 A.M., Chicago PMI at 8:45 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
On The Corn Front open interest is down in this liquidating market as farmers/traders expect a dead cat bounce, and the funds bail out of their net long positions. Which is a sign of a screaming buy. Forecasts for warmer weather with limited rain across from the Northern Plains and Northwest Midwest. Plantings have slowed due to unseasonable cool weather. The warmer forecast following Tuesday May 2nd will be favorable for getting crops to emerge. The extended range forecast calls for high pressure Ridging to become entrenched across the North central US later this spring. The Pacific Decadol Osillation (PDO) continues to gain strength which will place a Low Pressure Trough in the Pacific- just east of the Pacific Northwest. Volatility is the only game in town as we watch logistical woes in handling the 2023 record large harvest. What a difference a day makes or a year make. The US corn carryover is nil unlike the past decades, Argentina and the Ukraine exports are expected to be off the board and shelved, which leaves the US and Brazil to move crops. We should see an El-Nino rally when it gets really hot in the kitchen. In the overnight electronic session the July corn is currently trading at 579 ¼ which is 2 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 581 ¾ to 575 ½.
On the Ethanol Front Iowa lawmakers are applauding the EPA’s move to offer an emergency waiver for the sale of higher ethanol gasoline, following a wave of of lobbying from Midwestern members. This is a rare moment of the Hawkeye State rallying for the Biden administration. Meanwhile, Iowa’s four House members get ethanol subsidies out of GOP cuts. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is in a scramble to get the votes needed to pass the plan without any Democratic support. The plan could be dead on arrival in the Senate, and would also face a presidential veto if it got that far. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds praised the efforts of Iowa’s delegation to preserve the subsidies as once again the administration’s war on the energy industry and farmland industry continues. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
Have An Excellent Trading Day!
Dan FlynnQuestions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374