Grains Report 04/28/2023

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Apr 28
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL May May 01, 2023 199 Apr 13, 2023
ROUGH RICE May May 01, 2023 136 Mar 24, 2023
OATS May May 01, 2023 52 Apr 27, 2023
WHEAT May May 01, 2023 854 Apr 27, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. The weekly export sales report was bad once again. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. The western Great Plains are getting showers and some areas are seeing very beneficial precipitation this week. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 626, 620, and 614 July, with resistance at 645, 665, and 671 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 760, 754, and 748 July, with resistance at 781, 808, and 822 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 780, 774, and 768 July, and resistance is at 847, 860, and 870 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower in relatively narrow range trading on selling from speculators seen in most markets. Trends are sideways on the charts. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1686, 1680, and 1643 July and resistance is at 1724, 1744, and 1749 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower again yesterday, with Corn still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial buying interest. The export sales report was bad and China cancelled purchases again. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 580, 574, and 568 July, and resistance is at 597, 601, and 612 July. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 309, 306, and 303 July, and resistance is at 324, 328, and 333 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1371 July. Support is at 1401, 1396 and 1384 July, and resistance is at 1412, 1423, and 1440 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 420.00, 411.00, and 406.00 July, and resistance is at 431.00, 434.00, and 443.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5090, 4920, and 4800 July, with resistance at 5190, 5270, and 5420 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on nes that Indonesia will reduce its domestic su[ply requirement from 450,000 tons to 300,000 tons before exports can begin. The news means more Palm Oil will be released for exports and in competition with Malaysia. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday on weakness in Chicago. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 684.00 July. Support is at 700.00, 694.00, and 688.00 July, with resistance at 721.00, 739.00, and 752.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3440, 3400, and 3340 July, with resistance at 3560, 3660, and 3670 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
80 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

May
75 May
175 May
105 May
90 May

June
100 July
173 July 70 July
110 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 27
Compiled by Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 754.90 -0.10 May 2023 up 4.70
Track Thunder Bay 743.60 35.00 Jul 2023 dn 26.30
Track Vancouver 768.60 60.00 Jul 2023 dn 26.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 880.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 800.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
0May 970.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 815.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 810.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 900.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 770.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4150.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 236.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.458)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 272,625 lots, or 13.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 4,909 4,915 4,815 4,867 4,938 4,867 -71 7,146 2,934
Jul-23 4,849 4,874 4,774 4,837 4,878 4,822 -56 193,355 148,643
Sep-23 4,816 4,840 4,745 4,804 4,838 4,791 -47 47,453 31,728
Nov-23 4,799 4,819 4,733 4,784 4,816 4,771 -45 23,814 32,054
Jan-24 4,774 4,808 4,724 4,770 4,807 4,756 -51 483 4,952
Mar-24 4,764 4,798 4,720 4,768 4,796 4,754 -42 374 5,199
Corn
Turnover: 845,503 lots, or 22.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,633 2,633 2,602 2,616 2,642 2,616 -26 14,481 28,407
Jul-23 2,660 2,663 2,632 2,644 2,673 2,643 -30 555,535 885,098
Sep-23 2,652 2,656 2,621 2,637 2,667 2,635 -32 81,015 287,550
Nov-23 2,585 2,590 2,553 2,576 2,611 2,571 -40 134,875 304,522
Jan-24 2,595 2,595 2,556 2,577 2,606 2,572 -34 12,346 52,246
Mar-24 2,594 2,594 2,553 2,580 2,605 2,567 -38 47,251 31,710
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,611,650 lots, or 56.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,605 3,685 3,592 3,654 3,614 3,643 29 48,627 17,161
Jul-23 3,436 3,540 3,422 3,513 3,466 3,484 18 154,654 335,193
Aug-23 3,454 3,533 3,453 3,512 3,472 3,486 14 72,098 197,327
Sep-23 3,441 3,515 3,428 3,497 3,457 3,478 21 1,077,250 1,416,693
Nov-23 3,439 3,520 3,439 3,498 3,464 3,478 14 73,650 168,909
Dec-23 3,422 3,505 3,422 3,486 3,451 3,469 18 41,999 62,469
Jan-24 3,412 3,483 3,406 3,464 3,427 3,454 27 131,608 229,232
Mar-24 3,347 3,409 3,338 3,383 3,361 3,384 23 11,764 28,399
Palm Oil
Turnover: 839,161 lots, or 57.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,324 7,324 7,190 7,270 7,406 7,250 -156 11,269 4,442
Jun-23 7,266 7,308 7,228 7,288 7,388 7,272 -116 40,090 89,507
Jul-23 7,086 7,110 7,002 7,052 7,204 7,056 -148 33,132 108,010
Aug-23 6,926 6,966 6,860 6,904 7,052 6,920 -132 17,033 77,460
Sep-23 6,850 6,878 6,806 6,846 6,960 6,842 -118 702,831 485,666
Oct-23 6,834 6,874 6,804 6,848 6,956 6,838 -118 11,507 40,524
Nov-23 6,848 6,872 6,806 6,856 6,962 6,838 -124 13,094 30,441
Dec-23 6,828 6,868 6,800 6,846 6,968 6,832 -136 2,457 8,823
Jan-24 6,868 6,870 6,788 6,842 6,942 6,828 -114 7,708 17,074
Feb-24 6,838 6,844 6,820 6,844 6,980 6,832 -148 7 503
Mar-24 6,848 6,906 6,838 6,846 6,988 6,872 -116 26 1,218
Apr-24 6,888 6,888 6,818 6,818 6,916 6,850 -66 7 25
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 696,581 lots, or 52.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,762 8,092 7,710 7,768 7,912 7,784 -128 10,234 5,004
Jul-23 7,594 7,672 7,580 7,608 7,734 7,622 -112 37,458 121,489
Aug-23 7,542 7,610 7,538 7,560 7,666 7,572 -94 8,403 90,285
Sep-23 7,452 7,510 7,434 7,468 7,558 7,470 -88 599,479 541,127
Nov-23 7,452 7,556 7,452 7,512 7,596 7,498 -98 16,611 67,632
Dec-23 7,548 7,604 7,536 7,580 7,662 7,568 -94 7,253 36,284
Jan-24 7,502 7,560 7,494 7,520 7,620 7,528 -92 14,853 43,198
Mar-24 7,490 7,544 7,484 7,504 7,596 7,508 -88 2,290 11,124
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322