Grains Report 04/27/2023

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 4/20/2023
CURRENT MARKETING YEAR NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY NET SALES OUTSTANDING SALES WEEKLY EXPORTS ACCUMULATED EXPORTS NET SALES OUTSTANDING SALES
CURRENT YEAR YEAR
AGO CURRENT YEAR YEAR
AGO
THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW 22.8 576.0 1,017.8 68.4 4,480.1 6,472.2 49.4 173.1
SRW 35.1 407.8 369.9 3.4 2,437.7 2,484.2 -9.5 475.8
HRS 15.7 803.6 700.1 161.1 4,878.7 4,721.2 117.8 239.0
WHITE 61.6 596.9 312.5 70.2 4,076.3 3,023.4 44.4 87.6
DURUM 20.5 112.6 0.5 0.5 321.5 195.2 0.0 36.9
TOTAL 155.7 2,497.0 2,400.8 303.6 16,194.3 16,896.1 202.1 1,012.3
BARLEY 0.5 3.8 5.7 0.0 8.2 14.7 0.0 6.0
CORN 400.0 14,780.5 19,383.4 1,076.3 23,671.4 38,132.0 0.0 2,422.4
SORGHUM -1.0 606.8 2,048.4 55.9 986.8 4,668.5 0.0 63.0
SOYBEANS 311.3 3,905.4 10,849.1 453.7 46,721.6 46,728.1 0.0 1,769.8
SOY MEAL 153.4 2,549.9 2,666.2 251.0 7,013.1 6,987.9 0.0 343.5
SOY OIL 0.1 66.6 134.5 0.5 36.8 515.9 0.0 0.6
RICE
L G RGH 34.4 140.8 137.8 1.9 516.1 1,077.9 0.0 0.0
M S RGH 0.2 32.8 9.2 1.1 22.7 11.8 0.0 5.0
L G BRN 0.0 4.4 6.0 0.1 16.0 44.9 0.0 0.0
M&S BR 0.0 21.2 24.1 14.6 23.6 63.1 0.0 0.0
L G MLD 15.1 135.9 86.3 60.8 542.2 623.6 0.0 0.0
M S MLD 1.8 126.6 223.7 2.0 202.7 296.6 0.0 13.0
TOTAL 51.5 461.7 487.0 80.4 1,323.3 2,117.9 0.0 18.0
COTTON THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND 194.9 4,186.4 6,325.1 398.4 7,834.7 8,165.9 19.1 1,456.5
PIMA 16.7 94.3 132.3 20.6 163.6 331.9 0.0 4.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. The western Great Plains are getting showers and some areas are seeing very beneficial precipitation this week. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 602 May. Support is at 624, 618, and 612 May, with resistance at 654, 661, and 675 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 809 and 742 May. Support is at 810, 803, and 791 May, with resistance at 822, 849, and 852 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 827, 823, and 814 May. Support is at 830, 827, and 825 May, and resistance is at 847, 860, and 870 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower in choppy trading on selling from speculators seen in most markets. Trends are sideways on the charts. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1652, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1712, 1725, and 1746 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn still finding some support from little US producer selling interest but getting hurt from little commercial buying interest. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News: China cancelled purchases of 233,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 626, 605, and 593 May. Support is at 640, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 652, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 and 305 May. Support is at 320, 315, and 310 May, and resistance is at 332, 334, and 336 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1434 May. Support is at 1432, 1419 and 1405 May, and resistance is at 1464, 1483, and 1490 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 422.00, 417.00, and 414.00 May, and resistance is at 435.00, 442.00, and 445.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5090 and 4750 May. Support is at 5130, 5000, and 4880 May, with resistance at 5260, 5350, and 5460 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower as traders returned after a four day weekend to weak export demand. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday on weakness in Chicago. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 748.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 773.00, 777.00, and 787.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3530, 3460, and 3400 July, with resistance at 3720, 3820, and 3880 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
93 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

May
85 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

June
112 July
175 July 70 July
120 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 26
WINNIPEG, April 26 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 750.20 -14.60 May 2023 dn 2.50
Track Thunder Bay 769.90 35.00 Jul 2023 up 8.50
Track Vancouver 794.90 60.00 Jul 2023 up 8.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 950.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 890.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 815.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
0May 960.00 -35.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 900.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 825.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 905.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 760.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4150.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 235.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.46)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 174,518 lots, or 8.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 4,969 4,988 4,909 4,909 4,969 4,938 -31 2,649 6,848
Jul-23 4,895 4,921 4,841 4,849 4,895 4,878 -17 128,504 151,774
Sep-23 4,832 4,875 4,813 4,819 4,852 4,838 -14 27,646 28,224
Nov-23 4,817 4,845 4,791 4,795 4,825 4,816 -9 15,061 31,816
Jan-24 4,827 4,839 4,784 4,786 4,812 4,807 -5 505 4,993
Mar-24 4,791 4,823 4,777 4,783 4,802 4,796 -6 153 5,225
Corn
Turnover: 697,341 lots, or 18.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,647 2,654 2,630 2,631 2,647 2,642 -5 13,303 34,236
Jul-23 2,680 2,687 2,657 2,661 2,680 2,673 -7 420,378 913,498
Sep-23 2,675 2,680 2,653 2,656 2,669 2,667 -2 67,727 283,660
Nov-23 2,625 2,630 2,589 2,592 2,623 2,611 -12 138,666 300,683
Jan-24 2,635 2,635 2,592 2,596 2,622 2,606 -16 12,329 51,314
Mar-24 2,626 2,626 2,585 2,590 2,617 2,605 -12 44,938 30,228
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,501,649 lots, or 51.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,615 3,649 3,587 3,606 3,557 3,614 57 49,733 55,631
Jul-23 3,479 3,506 3,432 3,444 3,421 3,466 45 201,182 335,844
Aug-23 3,464 3,489 3,453 3,460 3,444 3,472 28 66,180 200,827
Sep-23 3,464 3,475 3,440 3,450 3,439 3,457 18 965,090 1,404,180
Nov-23 3,468 3,478 3,448 3,457 3,445 3,464 19 71,341 168,112
Dec-23 3,449 3,465 3,438 3,442 3,428 3,451 23 26,874 61,771
Jan-24 3,411 3,443 3,411 3,422 3,408 3,427 19 112,963 211,357
Mar-24 3,355 3,375 3,346 3,353 3,347 3,361 14 8,286 28,435
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,009,250 lots, or 70.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,394 7,498 7,312 7,334 7,466 7,406 -60 14,629 10,007
Jun-23 7,444 7,484 7,280 7,292 7,422 7,388 -34 40,184 93,498
Jul-23 7,226 7,300 7,096 7,110 7,264 7,204 -60 31,888 108,358
Aug-23 7,106 7,150 6,954 6,968 7,102 7,052 -50 17,153 77,440
Sep-23 7,000 7,068 6,864 6,872 7,008 6,960 -48 871,459 505,592
Oct-23 6,990 7,058 6,862 6,874 7,004 6,956 -48 12,119 39,811
Nov-23 6,998 7,060 6,868 6,882 7,006 6,962 -44 14,031 30,097
Dec-23 7,002 7,062 6,872 6,880 7,002 6,968 -34 1,328 8,627
Jan-24 6,994 7,090 6,858 6,870 7,000 6,942 -58 6,423 15,470
Feb-24 7,040 7,042 6,928 6,944 7,006 6,980 -26 5 501
Mar-24 7,038 7,088 6,918 6,928 7,020 6,988 -32 26 1,210
Apr-24 6,952 6,952 6,892 6,892 7,056 6,916 -140 5 21
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 998,898 lots, or 75.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,920 8,012 7,782 7,800 7,802 7,912 110 21,565 12,888
Jul-23 7,702 7,862 7,610 7,624 7,606 7,734 128 73,438 121,595
Aug-23 7,648 7,770 7,550 7,564 7,558 7,666 108 12,824 90,698
Sep-23 7,580 7,644 7,458 7,470 7,522 7,558 36 840,271 560,359
Nov-23 7,606 7,666 7,488 7,502 7,536 7,596 60 20,432 66,022
Dec-23 7,636 7,734 7,564 7,572 7,610 7,662 52 11,036 36,525
Jan-24 7,622 7,698 7,524 7,530 7,586 7,620 34 16,502 42,311
Mar-24 7,592 7,670 7,510 7,510 7,562 7,596 34 2,830 11,222
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322