Softs Report 04/26/2023

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Apr 25
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 76.979 million pounds, in March, 8.5% above the previous
month, and 35.4% above March 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Mar 31 Feb 28 Mar 31 Feb 28 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Mar
pork bellies 76,979 70,955 56,836 50,115
orange juice 328,371 272,603 479,589 457,698
french fries 995,968 1,035,971 965,174 992,338
other potatoes 236,590 239,871 212,822 219,607
chicken rstr (whole) 12,641 13,075 13,181 11,931
ham 84,701 85,069 74,118 84,212
total pork 533,916 521,188 485,999 478,315 468,076
total beef 480,896 500,206 535,839 531,568 471,537
total red meat 1,041,888 1,051,619 1,048,526 1,035,117 965,450
total chicken 854,132 863,337 786,243 785,657
total turkey 338,327 322,297 308,087 292,897
total poultry 1,195,046 1,188,145 1,096,101 1,080,604 1,093,549
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COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday on what appeared to be new speculative selling. Demand ideas are bad as the weekly export sales report was very bad last week and as forecasts for rain are showing in forecasts for West Texas. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways or down. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns. Chinese CPI data was market positive this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have scattered showers and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.98 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 75 bales, from 689 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 77.70, 77.20, and 77.00 July, with resistance of 79.70, 80.10 and 81.80 July.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday and trends are turning up again. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. But the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 276.00, 269.00, and 260.00 May, with resistance at 292.00, 299.00, and 303.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Trends are sideways to down in New York and up in London on the daily charts. Weekly chart trends are up for both markets. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.698 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 182.56 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 27 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 296 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 180.00 July. Support is at 185.00, 182.00, and 180.00 July, and resistance is at 196.00, 198.00 and 205.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2520 July. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2490, 2520, and 2550 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday with the market supported by tight supplies once again The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2690 July. Support is at 2500, 2410, and 2360 July and resistance is at 2630, 2660, and 2690 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 742.00 August. Support is at 675.00, 672.00, and 658.00 August and resistance is at 713.00, 716.00, and 719.00 August.

DJ Brazil Forecasts 2023-2024 Sugarcane Output of 637.1M Tons
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazil’s sugarcane and sugar production will increase in the 2023-2024 growing season amid an increase in the area planted with cane and the expectation of greater productivity, Brazilian crop agency Conab said Wednesday.
The country’s farmers will grow 637.1 million metric tons of sugarcane, the raw material used by Brazilian sugar mills to produce the sweetener and most of Brazil’s ethanol, Conab said in its first report for the season on sugar cane, sugar and ethanol production. In the 2022-2023 growing season Brazil grew 610.1 million tons of cane.
Sugar production will reach 38.8 million tons and the country’s mills will produce a total of 33.2 billion liters of ethanol in the current season, using sugar and corn as a raw material, Conab said.
Brazilian farmers replanted more of the cane-growing area before the start of the current season, which will boost productivity, Conab said. Cane plants regrow and can be harvested for more than one year, but the first harvest of new cane plants produces more than in later years.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday despite more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.859 million tons, down 7.4% from last year. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Trends remain mixed to up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.411 million bags. The Cocoa Association of Asia said that grindings for the quarter were up 4.09% from last year at 222,028 tons. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 930 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixe3d to up with objectives of 3030 and 3080 July. Support is at 2940, 2920, and 2890 July, with resistance at 3010, 3040, and 3070 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2230, 2200, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2290, 2320, and 2350 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322