Grains Report 04/26/2023

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Apr 25
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 76.979 million pounds, in March, 8.5% above the previous
month, and 35.4% above March 2022, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Mar 31 Feb 28 Mar 31 Feb 28 warehouse
2023 2023 2022 2022 stocks/Mar
pork bellies 76,979 70,955 56,836 50,115
orange juice 328,371 272,603 479,589 457,698
french fries 995,968 1,035,971 965,174 992,338
other potatoes 236,590 239,871 212,822 219,607
chicken rstr (whole) 12,641 13,075 13,181 11,931
ham 84,701 85,069 74,118 84,212
total pork 533,916 521,188 485,999 478,315 468,076
total beef 480,896 500,206 535,839 531,568 471,537
total red meat 1,041,888 1,051,619 1,048,526 1,035,117 965,450
total chicken 854,132 863,337 786,243 785,657
total turkey 338,327 322,297 308,087 292,897
total poultry 1,195,046 1,188,145 1,096,101 1,080,604 1,093,549
===============================================================================

DJ Canadian 2023/24 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan – Apr 26
WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2023/24 estimates of
principal field crop area report. The figures are as of April
2023. Source: Statistics Canada.
2023/24 2022/23
Barley 7,084,800 7,044,700
Edible Beans 257,200 297,600
Canary Seed 310,400 291,300
Canola 21,596,800 21,395,700
Chickpeas 260,200 233,800
Corn for grain 3,724,800 3,623,500
Fababeans 89,200 72,300
Flaxseed 688,900 778,900
Hemp 49,900 76,900
Lentils 3,975,600 4,321,300
Mixed grains 223,800 341,800
Mustard seed 637,600 554,700
Oats 3,056,300 3,936,700
Peas, dry 3,211,800 3,368,100
Rye 469,800 586,500
Soybeans 5,511,500 5,274,200
Sugarbeets 38,000 45,200
Summerfallow 1,319,400 1,990,200
Sunflower seed 89,800 94,100
Total wheat* 26,967,900 25,388,100
Durum wheat 6,062,100 6,006,100
Spring wheat 19,389,900 18,036,400
Winter wheat N/A 1,177,400
*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter
wheat remaining after winterkill
**Winter wheat remaining
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry but where showers and potentially very beneficial precipitation are possible this week. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 602 May. Support is at 624, 618, and 612 May, with resistance at 675, 685, and 689 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 809 and 742 May. Support is at 810, 803, and 791 May, with resistance at 822, 849, and 852 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 827, 823, and 814 May. Support is at 830, 827, and 825 May, and resistance is at 847, 860, and 870 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower on selling from speculators seen in most markets. Trends are sideways on the charts. Offers seem hard to find right now, but demand has been a problem all year. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1652, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1702, 1725, and 1746 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 26
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 19.01 11.64 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.75 12.34 0.00
Brokens 11.06 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn finding early selling pressure on follow through selling from news that China had cancelled purchases of 327,000 tons of US Corn but still finding support from little US producer selling interest. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 640, 628, and 625 May, and resistance is at 652, 660, and 668 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 320 and 305 May. Support is at 320, 315, and 310 May, and resistance is at 339, 345, and 349 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1434 May. Support is at 1438, 1432 and 1405 May, and resistance is at 1464, 1483, and 1490 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 430.00 and 428.00 May. Support is at 437.00, 422.00, and 417.00 May, and resistance is at 445.00, 455.00, and 460.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5090 and 4750 May. Support is at 5260, 5150, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5460, 5630, and 5810 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower as traders returned after a four day weekend to weak export demand. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday on weakness in Chicago, but May closed a little higher on some short covering before the deliveries begin next week. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 777.00, 787.00, and 789.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3520, 3460, and 3400 July, with resistance at 3720, 3820, and 3880 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 927,331 Tons, Down 18%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-25 period are estimated down 18% on month at 927,331 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-25 March 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 254,223 296,195
RBD Palm Oil 88,914 72,075
RBD Palm Stearin 93,275 110,630
Crude Palm Oil 186,890 284,190
Total* 927,331 1,136,825
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
93 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

May
85 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

June
112 July
175 July 70 July
120 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 763.60 -1.00 May 2023 up 6.80
Track Thunder Bay 762.70 35.00 Jul 2023 dn 2.20
Track Vancouver 787.70 60.00 Jul 2023 dn 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded

May 985.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 915.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 842.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 995.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 925.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 855.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 920.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 765.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4200.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 238.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.455)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,348 lots, or .77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 4,989 4,995 4,955 4,970 4,985 4,969 -16 1,156 9,146
Jul-23 4,933 4,933 4,865 4,891 4,918 4,895 -23 118,693 148,466
Sep-23 4,880 4,886 4,829 4,852 4,875 4,852 -23 24,035 27,975
Nov-23 4,854 4,857 4,802 4,823 4,848 4,825 -23 13,855 32,937
Jan-24 4,830 4,845 4,798 4,818 4,842 4,812 -30 386 4,945
Mar-24 4,817 4,829 4,790 4,806 4,829 4,802 -27 223 5,211
Corn
Turnover: 823,375 lots, or 21.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,636 2,655 2,636 2,651 2,636 2,647 11 20,024 40,885
Jul-23 2,671 2,690 2,671 2,685 2,665 2,680 15 508,898 913,580
Sep-23 2,652 2,679 2,652 2,676 2,652 2,669 17 88,040 278,452
Nov-23 2,625 2,634 2,614 2,628 2,631 2,623 -8 152,129 288,427
Jan-24 2,625 2,631 2,614 2,629 2,630 2,622 -8 10,594 48,383
Mar-24 2,620 2,627 2,608 2,623 2,625 2,617 -8 43,690 29,965
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,996,287 lots, or 6.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,540 3,634 3,507 3,632 3,564 3,557 -7 93,258 78,548
Jul-23 3,378 3,487 3,345 3,484 3,368 3,421 53 276,352 360,887
Aug-23 3,419 3,483 3,400 3,480 3,419 3,444 25 77,209 216,132
Sep-23 3,418 3,475 3,396 3,472 3,413 3,439 26 1,256,712 1,399,014
Nov-23 3,430 3,486 3,334 3,473 3,418 3,445 27 106,633 171,778
Dec-23 3,411 3,458 3,402 3,449 3,420 3,428 8 35,940 63,992
Jan-24 3,399 3,434 3,376 3,423 3,396 3,408 12 141,636 194,082
Mar-24 3,343 3,374 3,324 3,353 3,349 3,347 -2 8,547 28,963
Palm Oil
Turnover: 957,518 lots, or 67.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,482 7,514 7,398 7,442 7,474 7,466 -8 29,029 17,360
Jun-23 7,434 7,482 7,340 7,460 7,446 7,422 -24 38,129 98,261
Jul-23 7,232 7,320 7,190 7,284 7,278 7,264 -14 37,018 110,992
Aug-23 7,122 7,156 7,032 7,142 7,130 7,102 -28 17,864 79,737
Sep-23 7,040 7,060 6,934 7,044 7,034 7,008 -26 802,115 474,707
Oct-23 7,014 7,052 6,932 7,044 7,024 7,004 -20 11,951 41,500
Nov-23 7,022 7,056 6,932 7,040 7,020 7,006 -14 15,319 31,832
Dec-23 7,030 7,054 6,936 7,042 7,032 7,002 -30 1,218 8,584
Jan-24 7,060 7,060 6,922 7,032 7,020 7,000 -20 4,857 13,421
Feb-24 7,006 7,006 7,006 7,006 7,034 7,006 -28 1 500
Mar-24 6,978 7,070 6,968 7,046 7,030 7,020 -10 16 1,207
Apr-24 7,056 7,056 7,056 7,056 7,016 7,056 40 1 18
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,081,891 lots, or 81.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,772 7,962 7,698 7,940 7,800 7,802 2 38,997 21,151
Jul-23 7,604 7,738 7,490 7,722 7,614 7,606 -8 54,609 123,940
Aug-23 7,554 7,686 7,462 7,676 7,578 7,558 -20 18,546 92,523
Sep-23 7,536 7,618 7,422 7,596 7,550 7,522 -28 891,526 538,497
Nov-23 7,540 7,634 7,432 7,616 7,562 7,536 -26 32,015 65,342
Dec-23 7,602 7,702 7,496 7,666 7,626 7,610 -16 15,582 36,923
Jan-24 7,628 7,666 7,466 7,654 7,600 7,586 -14 26,020 37,602
Mar-24 7,562 7,640 7,452 7,608 7,580 7,562 -18 4,596 11,445
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322