Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering after the big down move last week. Demand ideas are bad as the weekly export sales report was very bad last week and as forecasts for rain are showing in forecasts for West Texas. The rains will not solve drought problems but at least producers in the region can get started on fieldwork and hope for better yields this year. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways or down. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns. Chinese CPI data was market positive this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get widespread precipitation and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.98 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 689 bales, from 689 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for May delivery and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 7920 July. Support is at 79.70, 78.40, and 77.20 July, with resistance of 82.10, 82.70 and 83.80 July.
Date 23-Apr 16-Apr 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 12 8 12 11
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday and trends remain sideways. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. But the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 269.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 280.00, 287.00, and 293.00 May.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, with London once again pushing the New York contract to higher levels. Trends are sideways to down in New York and up in London on ideas of increasing offers from producers on the rally on Tuesday. Weekly chart trends are up for both markets. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have almost nothing left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 0.699 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 182.56 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with near to below normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 256 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 189.00 and 180.00 July. Support is at 190.00, 188.00, and 185.00 July, and resistance is at 196.00, 198.00 and 205.00 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2520 July. Support is at 2380, 2330, and 2270 July, and resistance is at 2490, 2520, and 2550 July.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday with the market supported by tight supplies once again The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Indian mills have produced 31.1 million tons of Sugar so far this marketing year, down 5.4% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of2560 and 2690 July. Support is at 2410, 2360, and 2300 July and resistance is at 2540, 2570, and 2600 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 710.00 and 742.00 August. Support is at 672.00, 658.00, and 646.00 August and resistance is at 697.00, 702.00, and 707.00 August.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday despite more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1.859 million tons, down 7.4% from last year. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Trends remain mixed to up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. It has turned drier in the last week and the drier weather is creating fears of a short crop again. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.417 million bags. The Cocoa Association of Asia said that grindings for the quarter were up 4.09% from last year at 222,028 tons. ICE NY said that 168 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 930 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixe3d to up with objectives of 3030 and 3080 July. Support is at 2940, 2920, and 2890 July, with resistance at 3010, 3040, and 3070 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2230, 2200, and 2170 July, with resistance at 2290, 2320, and 2350 July.