Grains Report 04/25/2023

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 24
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Apr 24, 2023 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 20, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
—————————————————————————
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/20/2023 04/13/2023 04/21/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,154 10,083
CORN 913,813 1,237,260 1,665,741 22,359,781 34,909,102
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 200 324
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 6,486 600
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 53,765 58,986 169,144 1,304,659 5,089,040
SOYBEANS 374,960 530,342 607,270 47,047,171 46,646,616
SUNFLOWER 0 0 384 2,408 1,972
WHEAT 363,826 252,481 289,754 17,865,826 18,373,296
Total 1,706,364 2,079,069 2,732,293 88,588,685 105,031,033
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

Crop Progress
Date 23-Apr 16-Apr 2022 Avg
Cotton Planted 12 8 12 11
Corn Planted 14 8 7 11
Corn Emerged 3 2 2
Soybeans Planted 9 4 3 4
Sorghum Planted 18 15 19 20
Rice Planted 51 38 25 37
Rice Emerged 30 18 18 21
Peanuts Planted 4 1 4 4
Sugarbeets Planted 17 13 10 22
Oats Planted 42 36 38 42
Oats Emerged 28 26 27 29
Barley Planted 10 5 23 22
Barley Emerged 1 3 5
Winter Wheat Headed 18 10 10 14
Spring Wheat Planted 5 3 12 12
Spring Wheat Emerged 1 2 3

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 18 23 33 23 3
Winter Wheat Last Week 18 21 34 24 3
Winter Wheat Last Year 20 19 34 24 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on weak demand ideas and on forecasts for rains in dry parts of the western Great Plains. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry but where showers and potentially very beneficial precipitation are possible this week. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 602 May. Support is at 642, 636, and 630 May, with resistance at 675, 685, and 689 May. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 809 and 742 May. Support is at 827, 810, and 803 May, with resistance at 852, 862, and 876 May. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 840, 827, and 823 May. Support is at 833, 827, and 825 May, and resistance is at 870, 876, and 895 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mostly a little higher, and July closed higher as the carry spreads aligned again. Trends are sideways to down on the May daily charts but other months show sideways trends at worst. The USDA reports released a week ago are the reason for the buying seen in recent sessions. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went higher. Offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1639 and 1556 May. Support is at 1677, 1652, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1707, 1725, and 1746 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn finding selling pressure from news that China had cancelled purchases of 327,000 tons of US Corn but still finding support from little US producer selling interest. The weather was wet and cool in the Midwest last week and producers were not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. Most are thinking about getting into the fields and are not even worried about the market. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 647, 626, and 605 May. Support is at 652, 643, and 640 May, and resistance is at 668, 671, and 682 May. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 and 305 May. Support is at 328, 315, and 310 May, and resistance is at 339, 345, and 349 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to reports that Brazil basis levels are so low that some American processors can import more cheaply than buying from US producers and shipping by rail. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be partially wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. Production ideas in Argentina are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are mostly lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1434 May. Support is at 1468, 1462 and 1454 May, and resistance is at 1500, 1504, and 1511 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 430.00 and 428.00 May. Support is at 435.00, 422.00, and 417.00 May, and resistance is at 455.00, 469.00, and 466.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5090 and 4750 May. Support is at 5260, 5150, and 5000 May, with resistance at 5460, 5630, and 5810 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower as traders returned after a four day weekend to weak export demand. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. In fact, exports so far this month are down about 25% from last month. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was mostly a little lower yesterday on weakness in Chicago, but May closed a little higher on some short covering before the deliveries begin next week. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 777.00, 787.00, and 789.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3640, 3530, and 3460 July, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3940 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-25 Palm Oil Exports 927,331 Tons, Down 18%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-25 period are estimated down 18% on month at 927,331 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-25 March 1-25
RBD Palm Olein 254,223 296,195
RBD Palm Oil 88,914 72,075
RBD Palm Stearin 93,275 110,630
Crude Palm Oil 186,890 284,190
Total* 927,331 1,136,825
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
93 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

May
85 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

June
112 July
175 July 70 July
120 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 24
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 763.60 -1.00 May 2023 up 6.80
Track Thunder Bay 762.70 35.00 Jul 2023 dn 2.20
Track Vancouver 787.70 60.00 Jul 2023 dn 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com,
204-414-9084, or cell 204-782-5944)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 990.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 935.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 1000.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 945.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 870.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 945.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 765.00 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4200.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 241.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.445)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,264 lots, or 7.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,006 5,013 4,969 4,999 5,003 4,985 -18 1,523 9,990
Jul-23 4,935 4,945 4,885 4,931 4,928 4,918 -10 123,632 142,799
Sep-23 4,904 4,904 4,846 4,885 4,886 4,875 -11 22,011 26,608
Nov-23 4,875 4,875 4,820 4,858 4,859 4,848 -11 10,714 32,701
Jan-24 4,857 4,861 4,818 4,853 4,855 4,842 -13 244 4,825
Mar-24 4,842 4,845 4,806 4,839 4,838 4,829 -9 140 5,088
Corn
Turnover: 704,184 lots, or 18.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,648 2,648 2,628 2,640 2,649 2,636 -13 20,495 46,914
Jul-23 2,665 2,676 2,655 2,671 2,673 2,665 -8 440,547 915,100
Sep-23 2,660 2,662 2,644 2,656 2,660 2,652 -8 72,412 279,752
Nov-23 2,638 2,640 2,623 2,626 2,644 2,631 -13 123,547 276,027
Jan-24 2,638 2,640 2,622 2,624 2,646 2,630 -16 8,591 46,727
Mar-24 2,633 2,634 2,619 2,620 2,638 2,625 -13 38,592 28,832
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,562,856 lots, or 53.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,600 3,618 3,521 3,554 3,543 3,564 21 127,693 112,284
Jul-23 3,392 3,396 3,334 3,379 3,355 3,368 13 137,613 379,637
Aug-23 3,421 3,447 3,389 3,430 3,405 3,419 14 53,973 217,419
Sep-23 3,431 3,444 3,380 3,425 3,403 3,413 10 1,014,083 1,384,928
Nov-23 3,439 3,445 3,380 3,432 3,396 3,418 22 90,480 156,781
Dec-23 3,416 3,450 3,392 3,430 3,403 3,420 17 30,427 61,713
Jan-24 3,421 3,428 3,369 3,406 3,385 3,396 11 101,388 176,934
Mar-24 3,368 3,378 3,326 3,348 3,343 3,349 6 7,199 28,497
Palm Oil
Turnover: 804,875 lots, or 56.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,396 7,548 7,396 7,502 7,568 7,474 -94 34,765 25,127
Jun-23 7,428 7,514 7,394 7,436 7,462 7,446 -16 30,632 101,659
Jul-23 7,232 7,338 7,228 7,272 7,302 7,278 -24 23,080 109,113
Aug-23 7,100 7,182 7,080 7,126 7,158 7,130 -28 11,241 77,476
Sep-23 7,008 7,092 6,986 7,044 7,062 7,034 -28 680,048 473,929
Oct-23 6,996 7,074 6,976 7,030 7,042 7,024 -18 7,757 41,434
Nov-23 6,984 7,068 6,972 7,048 7,030 7,020 -10 12,013 30,395
Dec-23 6,990 7,070 6,978 7,042 7,022 7,032 10 1,075 8,262
Jan-24 6,986 7,068 6,982 7,030 7,024 7,020 -4 4,226 12,817
Feb-24 7,080 7,080 7,016 7,046 7,028 7,034 6 15 500
Mar-24 7,014 7,056 7,010 7,034 6,980 7,030 50 19 1,206
Apr-24 7,076 7,076 6,988 6,988 7,042 7,016 -26 4 17
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 798,885 lots, or 6.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,802 7,916 7,720 7,786 7,858 7,800 -58 48,059 34,180
Jul-23 7,622 7,700 7,552 7,612 7,622 7,614 -8 38,072 126,066
Aug-23 7,588 7,662 7,524 7,578 7,588 7,578 -10 14,354 92,017
Sep-23 7,538 7,630 7,488 7,546 7,556 7,550 -6 656,216 523,820
Nov-23 7,540 7,632 7,504 7,562 7,544 7,562 18 18,977 59,644
Dec-23 7,608 7,694 7,574 7,626 7,616 7,626 10 5,929 35,649
Jan-24 7,598 7,666 7,540 7,596 7,580 7,600 20 14,907 30,850
Mar-24 7,564 7,640 7,530 7,582 7,558 7,580 22 2,371 11,131
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322