Grains Report 04/21/2023

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed April 1 94.8 94.1-95.4
Placed in March 94.9 91.5-99.0
Marketed in March 98.8 97.2-99.6
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
April 1 in March in March
Allegiant Commodity Group 94.6 94.3 99.5
Allendale Inc. 95.4 96.4 98.1
HedgersEdge 94.9 93.7 97.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 95.4 99.0 99.5
Midwest Market Solutions 94.3 94.5 97.4
NFC Markets 94.4 92.5 99.0
Texas A&M Extension 94.9 98.0 99.5
US Commodities 94.1 91.5 99.6

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on another week of bad export sales and on reports that Russia will meet with the UN on the Black Sea Corridor deal with Russia and Turkey and the UN. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry but where showers and potentially very beneficial precipitation are possible. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 661, 654, and 648 May, with resistance at 685, 689, and 707 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 835, 830, and 809 May. Support is at 833, 810, and 803 May, with resistance at 862, 876, and 886 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 840, 827, and 823 May. Support is at 847, 833, and 827 May, and resistance is at 870, 876, and 895 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed again yesterday, with May sharply lower and deferred months all higher. The main feature of trade was the collapse of May in flat price action and on carry spreads after another very poor weekly export sales report. Longs tried to move out of May and into other months but had a lot of trouble getting this done. It has been a big week for the carry spreads in this market as traders start to prepare for May deliveries starting at the end of this month. Trends are down on the May daily charts but other months show sideways trends at worst. The USDA reports released a week ago are the reason for the buying seen in recent sessions. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went higher. Offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get widespread rain. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1639 and 1556 May. Support is at 1675, 1652, and 1625 May and resistance is at 1701, 1725, and 1746 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday, with Corn finding selling pressure from a bad weekly export sales report but still finding support from little US producer selling interest. The weather was dry and warm in the Midwest last week and producers were concentrating on fieldwork and are not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 660, 652, and 643 May, and resistance is at 671, 682, and 686 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 332, and 328 May, and resistance is at 345, 349, and 353 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower again yesterday on a lack of bullish news to support the buyers. The week;ly export sales report showed bad sales. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Even so, production ideas are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are usually lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1485, 1467, and 1434 May. Support is at 1488, 1483 and 1471 May, and resistance is at 1506, 1511, and 1522 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 444.00, 430.00, and 428.00 May. Support is at 446.00, 435.00, and 432.00 May, and resistance is at 455.00, 469.00, and 466.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5380, 5260, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed today for a holiday. Trends are down on the daily charts. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was lower on price action in Chicago and despite planting and fieldwork delays that are returning as the weather is cold and wet again. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 739.00, 706.00, and 680.00 May. Support is at 756.00, 745.00, and 733.00 May, with resistance at 772.00, 787.00, and 789.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3640, 3530, and 3460 July, with resistance at 3820, 3880, and 3940 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Light rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
93 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

May
85 May
180 May
105 May
98 May

June
112 July
175 July 70 July
120 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 20
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 780.90 8.40 May 2023 dn 2.60
Basis: Thunder Bay 762.90 35.00 July 2023 dn 16.00
Basis: Vancouver 787.90 60.00 July 2023 dn 16.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 223,972 lots, or 10.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,044 5,066 4,952 4,968 5,109 5,001 -108 2,859 13,090
Jul-23 4,957 4,960 4,853 4,870 5,006 4,895 -111 165,843 162,027
Sep-23 4,920 4,921 4,823 4,830 4,970 4,860 -110 36,435 29,263
Nov-23 4,888 4,898 4,801 4,808 4,940 4,836 -104 16,355 33,875
Jan-24 4,888 4,888 4,795 4,800 4,924 4,822 -102 1,677 4,931
Mar-24 4,870 4,870 4,784 4,786 4,909 4,811 -98 803 5,181
Corn
Turnover: 831,382 lots, or 22.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,605 2,686 2,605 2,648 2,690 2,670 -20 27,943 69,537
Jul-23 2,707 2,710 2,667 2,672 2,713 2,691 -22 537,619 896,541
Sep-23 2,696 2,698 2,653 2,660 2,701 2,676 -25 86,443 268,690
Nov-23 2,662 2,665 2,635 2,651 2,669 2,651 -18 128,042 268,744
Jan-24 2,662 2,667 2,637 2,652 2,667 2,651 -16 16,615 42,937
Mar-24 2,655 2,655 2,630 2,643 2,659 2,642 -17 34,720 27,922
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,463,841 lots, or 50.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,609 3,639 3,531 3,537 3,620 3,586 -34 183,533 191,236
Jul-23 3,381 3,420 3,355 3,356 3,407 3,393 -14 132,606 374,116
Aug-23 3,439 3,468 3,405 3,405 3,454 3,441 -13 63,128 211,073
Sep-23 3,436 3,460 3,402 3,405 3,448 3,434 -14 942,738 1,380,471
Nov-23 3,436 3,454 3,399 3,399 3,437 3,430 -7 51,206 131,322
Dec-23 3,434 3,457 3,407 3,410 3,452 3,439 -13 28,094 54,732
Jan-24 3,415 3,433 3,382 3,387 3,428 3,413 -15 55,827 163,001
Mar-24 3,367 3,391 3,345 3,347 3,387 3,372 -15 6,709 25,451
Palm Oil
Turnover: 933,480 lots, or 67.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,796 7,814 7,674 7,698 7,820 7,748 -72 82,714 60,568
Jun-23 7,550 7,616 7,488 7,504 7,626 7,556 -70 43,694 102,472
Jul-23 7,430 7,458 7,316 7,324 7,478 7,388 -90 36,158 107,677
Aug-23 7,292 7,318 7,166 7,174 7,350 7,240 -110 19,095 74,441
Sep-23 7,220 7,252 7,076 7,080 7,292 7,154 -138 718,329 437,112
Oct-23 7,202 7,238 7,060 7,068 7,276 7,138 -138 11,980 40,903
Nov-23 7,208 7,226 7,040 7,040 7,266 7,130 -136 16,259 29,751
Dec-23 7,196 7,216 7,044 7,044 7,260 7,118 -142 935 7,690
Jan-24 7,178 7,198 7,048 7,070 7,232 7,106 -126 4,033 11,568
Feb-24 7,136 7,136 7,068 7,076 7,250 7,104 -146 6 499
Mar-24 7,196 7,196 7,050 7,060 7,188 7,096 -92 251 1,049
Apr-24 7,126 7,140 7,070 7,070 7,152 7,124 -28 26 15
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 860,127 lots, or 6.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,002 8,050 7,892 7,894 8,080 7,980 -100 69,911 72,196
Jul-23 7,796 7,800 7,604 7,606 7,868 7,708 -160 41,390 126,909
Aug-23 7,774 7,774 7,574 7,574 7,844 7,690 -154 12,784 90,595
Sep-23 7,744 7,754 7,544 7,550 7,822 7,650 -172 705,055 518,082
Nov-23 7,746 7,746 7,542 7,542 7,818 7,634 -184 12,557 52,687
Dec-23 7,788 7,802 7,610 7,612 7,882 7,726 -156 6,325 34,367
Jan-24 7,770 7,778 7,580 7,588 7,854 7,668 -186 10,696 24,887
Mar-24 7,746 7,754 7,566 7,566 7,824 7,664 -160 1,409 10,857
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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