About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday and is trying to move higher on the daily charts. The USDA supply and demand reports released last week showed smaller ending stocks. Cotton retains bullish fundamentals after the reports. The weekly export sales report was just OK last week and featured light buying from many Asian countries. The prospective plantings report highlighted reduced planting ideas from producers. Ideas are that the world economic problems were fading into the background as the US stock market has rallied. Chart trends are sideways. Chinese buying should stay strong as the country improves economically as it opens up from the covid lockdowns. Chinese CPI data was market positive this week.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 80.94 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,485 bales, from 1,485 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 62,100 bales this year and 38,000 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 25,200 bales this yeawr and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 83.10, 81.90, and 80.30 May, with resistance of 85.00, 86.90 and 87.70 May.

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday and the daily charts indicate more of a sideways trend. Futures remain supported by very short Oranges production estimates for Florida. Demand is thought to be backing away from FCOJ with prices as high as they are currently. But the market has not taken any note and continues to charge higher. Historically low estimates of production due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures. The weather remains generally good for production around the world for the next crop including production areas in Florida that have been impacted in a big way by the two storms seen previously in the state. Brazil has some rain and conditions are rated good.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 269.00, 260.00, and 257.00 May, with resistance at 280.00, 287.00, and 293.00 May.

General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed mixed yesterday and New York once again was at new highs for the move on ideas of increasing offers from producers on the rally on Tuesday. The Robusta market has been especially tight and has been pushing on the Arabica price, but Arabica supplies are growing tight in the market as well. Producers in Vietnam are said to have low stocks left to sell and producers in Colombia and Brazil are also reported to be short Coffee to sell even with the uptick in offers earlier in the week. The lack of offers from South America and Vietnam is still supporting prices and reports indicate that demand for Robusta from Vietnam is strong.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.700 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.76 ct/lb. Brazil will get scattered showers with near to above normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see isolated showers or dry conditions. ICE NY said that 254 notices were posted for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 254 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 198.00, 191.00, and 189.00 July, and resistance is at 205.00, 208.00 and 211.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2330, 2270, and 2240 July, and resistance is at 2400, 2430, and 2460 July.

General Comments: New York closed a little lower, but London closed higher on tight supplies Trends are still up on the weekly charts and are turning up on the daily charts. The production is not there to meet the demand in many countries, with only Brazil among the major producers looking to have a good crop. Indian production is thought to be less this year as mills are closing early there and Pakistan also has reduced production. Indian mills have produced 31.1 million tons of Sugar so far this marketing year, down 5.4% from last year. Thailand mills are also closing earlier than expected so the crop there might be less. Asian countries could face another year of short production as El Nino returns after years of La Nina. New crop Brazil production is solid this year but is still in the fields. Brazil old crop production has been better after mills ran out of cane to crush a year ago. European production is expected to be reduced again this year. Some analysts now say that Chinese production could be the lowest in six years due to bad growing conditions.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 2360, 2300, and 2220 July and resistance is at 2430, 2460, and 2490 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 710.00 and 742.00 August. Support is at 672.00, 658.00, and 646.00 August and resistance is at 690.00, 695.00, and 701.00 August.

DJ Brazil Raises 2022-2023 Sugarcane, Sugar Output Estimates
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazil raised its estimates for the output of sugarcane and sugar and trimmed its estimate for ethanol production in the 2022-2023 production season, as better weather conditions boosted productivity, agricultural agency Conab Thursday in its final cane report for the seasonal year.
The country’s farmers produced 610.1 million metric tons of sugarcane, the raw material used by Brazilian sugar mills to produce the sweetener and most of Brazil’s ethanol, Conab said. In December, Conab forecast cane production of 598.3 million tons. In the 2021-2022 season, Brazil produced 578.8 million tons of cane.
Sugar output reached 37 million tons, up slightly from the 36.4 million tons that Conab forecast in December. For 2021-2022, Brazil produced 34.9 million tons of sugar. The country’s mills produced a total 26.5 billion liters of ethanol in the current season, using sugar or corn as a raw material, Conab said. The agency forecast production of 26.6 billion liters in December and Brazil produced 26.4 billion liters in 2021-2022.
Brazil is the world’s biggest producer and exporter of sugar. Bad weather in the 2021-2022 season, including frosts and a months-long drought in many cane-growing areas, hurt productivity and production a year ago. Brazil’s total sugarcane production fell 10.6% last year from the 2020-2021 season, according to Conab.

General Comments: New York and London closed a little higher again yesterday and continued to make a new leg up on the charts. The lack of arrivals from West Africa to ports is still important and is supporting futures. Trends remain up for at least the short term. Talk is that hot and dry conditions reported earlier in Ivory Coast could curtail main crop production, and main crop production ideas are not strong. Midcrop production ideas are strong due to rain mixed with some sun recently reported in Cocoa areas of the country. It has turned drier in the last week and the drier weather is creating fears of a short crop again. Ghana has reported a disease in its Cocoa to hurt production potential there, but overall production expectations are high. The rest of West Africa appears to be in good condition. The weather is good in Southeast Asia
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 5.397 million bags. The Cocoa Association of Asia said that grindings for the quarter were up 4.09% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3130. 3150, and 3250 May. Support is at 3010, 2990, and 2950 May, with resistance at 3100, 3130, and 3160 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2280 May. Support is at 2230, 2200, and 2170 May, with resistance at 2290, 2320, and 2350 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322