Grains Report 04/20/2023

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed April 1 94.8 94.1-95.4
Placed in March 94.9 91.5-99.0
Marketed in March 98.8 97.2-99.6
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
April 1 in March in March
Allegiant Commodity Group 94.6 94.3 99.5
Allendale Inc. 95.4 96.4 98.1
HedgersEdge 94.9 93.7 97.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 95.4 99.0 99.5
Midwest Market Solutions 94.3 94.5 97.4
NFC Markets 94.4 92.5 99.0
Texas A&M Extension 94.9 98.0 99.5
US Commodities 94.1 91.5 99.6

DJ Global Grain Output to Rise on Stronger Wheat Harvest
By Yusuf Khan
Global grain output is expected to rise in 2023/24, with a higher forecast of wheat and corn bumping up production expectations, according to the International Grains Council.
Total grain output is expected to rise to 2.291 billion metric tons, up from 2.252 billion tons in 2022/23, the IGC said in a new report.
Wheat output in 2023/24 is expected to total 787 million tons, corn 1.208 billion tons and soybeans 401 million tons. The IGC highlighted Brazil’s bumper soy crop this year as helping to negate worries over growth in other countries such as Argentina.
The supply boost will mainly be channeled toward animal feed, the IGC said.
Prices in Chicago for wheat are down 1.4% on Thursday to $6.83 a bushel, having slipped 13.7% this year, with similar losses for corn and soybeans.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 20
For the week ended Apr 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 259.0 46.1 18535.5 19264.6 2644.8 810.2
hrw 63.3 1.8 5033.3 7492.7 621.6 123.8
srw -9.0 33.5 2810.4 2852.4 376.1 485.3
hrs 125.1 10.8 5666.6 5399.1 949.0 121.1
white 37.7 0.0 4611.7 3330.5 605.5 43.2
durum 41.9 0.0 413.6 189.9 92.6 36.9
corn 312.4 422.0 38051.9 56648.7 15456.8 2422.4
soybeans 100.1 2.9 50380.8 57095.8 4047.8 1769.8
soymeal 144.5 0.0 9409.5 9451.1 2647.4 343.5
soyoil 0.2 0.0 103.3 646.9 67.0 0.6
upland cotton 62.1 38.0 11826.1 14369.8 4389.9 1437.4
pima cotton 25.2 0.0 241.2 451.3 98.2 4.0
sorghum 30.0 0.0 1594.6 6704.5 663.8 63.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.5 20.5 3.3 6.0
rice 10.5 0.0 1733.4 2588.5 490.6 18.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on reports that Russia will meet with the UN on the Black Sea Corridor deal with Russia and Turkey and the UN. Uncertainty about the Black Sea Corridor deal continued. There remains buying tied to uncertainty about exports from the Black Sea and on bad growing conditions in the western Great Plains, where it remains very dry but where a few showers are possible in longer range forecasts. Russia has said that the current system cannot last and seems ready to kill the deal completely. It has been talking to Turkey about the deal and plans to talk to the UN very soon. Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices. Ideas are that both Australia and Russia are harvesting record to near record Wheat crops this year. Both countries will have a lot of Wheat to export.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 711 and 737 May. Support is at 681, 675, and 661 May, with resistance at 689, 707, and 712 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 853, 840, and 823 May, with resistance at 886, 899, and 902 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 870, 860, and 847 March, and resistance is at 895, 899, and 910 May.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mixed again yesterday, with nearby months lower and deferred months a little higher. It has been a big week for the carry spreads in this market as traders start to prepare for May deliveries starting at the end of this month. It was a narrow range trade yesterday. Trends are still mixed on the May daily charts. The USDA reports released a week ago are the reason for the buying seen in recent sessions. Medium and short grain estimates were unchanged but ending stocks for long grain dropped by 6.0 million cwt as did the ending stocks estimates for all Rice. The moves shocked the market and futures went higher. Offers seem hard to find right now. Export demand has been uneven and was low last week. Export demand has been an issue for the market all year. Mills are milling for the domestic market in Arkansas and are bidding for some Rice.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1689, and 1675 May and resistance is at 1725, 1746, and 1760 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed mixed yesterday, with Corn finding selling pressure from a lack of news but still finding support from strong Chinese demand combined with little US producer selling interest. The weather was dry and warm in the Midwest last week and producers were concentrating on fieldwork and are not selling Corn, but the market wants Corn now. It is now wet and cold in the Midwest, but producers are still inclined to wait and might have trouble sourcing trucks to haul grain, anyway. US prices are currently very competitive with those from South America as Brazil concentrates on Soybeans exports and not Corn and US demand has improved because of the price differentials and the lack of a Brazil offer into the market. This trend should continue for the next few months. Prices from South America should now remain strong as countries there concentrate on Soybeans exports and not Corn. NOAA is forecasting that La Nina will develop this Summer and replace El Nino. US growing conditions are usually good when this happens.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 684 and 706 May. Support is at 668, 660, and 652 May, and resistance is at 682, 686, and 695 May. Trends in Oats are mixed o up with objectives of 387 and 406 May. Support is at 339, 332, and 328 May, and resistance is at 353, 360, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on a lack of bullish news to support the buyers. Brazil has been selling a lot of Soybeans to China to feed its record Soybeans demand. Brazil has a very good crop, but the additional Soybeans grown in Brazil will be wiped out by the losses in Argentina. Argentina has been forced to import from Brazil to keeps its crushing facilities operating. The US might sell to China for storage purposes as well and could pick up some new business from countries other than China as Brazil ports will be loaded with ships bound for China. The US has also bought Soybeans in Brazil this year due to the extreme differences in prices. It remains hot but rains are reported in Argentina and crop conditions are getting stable. Even so, production ideas are no higher than 25 million tons, about half a crop, and are usually lower than this amount. Forecasts from NOAA for very good growing conditions in the Midwest were also a factor, but there is too much rain in most growing areas right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1504, 1490 and 1483 May, and resistance is at 1522, 1528, and 1532 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 444.00, 430.00, and 428.00 May. Support is at 446.00, 435.00, and 432.00 May, and resistance is at 460.00, 466.00, and 471.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5850, 6080, and 6150 May. Support is at 5380, 5260, and 5130 May, with resistance at 5630, 5810, and 5980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil much lower today on ideas of weaker demand here and around the world for vegetable oils. Trends are down on the daily charts. There are ideas are that prices can remain elevated due to bad weather in Malaysia but demand remains weaker than hoped for from India and China. Indonesia has not been offering as it tries to build stocks for its own bio fuels industry but it is expected to start offering very soon. Canola was lower on price action in Chicago and despite planting and fieldwork delays that are returning as the weather is cold and wet again. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts. Brazil is expected to dominate the oilseeds market for the next few months. Reports indicate that domestic demand has been strong due to favorable crush margins.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 760.00, 756.00, and 745.00 May, with resistance at 789.00, 798.00, and 803.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3830 July. Support is at 3720, 3640, and 3530 July, with resistance at 3770, 3810, and 3880 July.

DJ Malaysia April 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 696,463 Tons, Down 25.8%, AmSpec Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-20 period are estimated down 25.8% on month at 696,463 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-20 March 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 195,983 262,985
RBD Palm Oil 68,590 62,385
RBD Palm Stearin 61,975 83,790
Crude Palm Oil 123,350 234,360
Total* 696,463 938,690
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Rain and snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April
185 May
175 May
111 May
119 May

May
185 May
175 May
97 May
111 May

June
185 July
175 May 80 July
121 July

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 19
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 783.50 8.50 May 2023 up 6.80
Basis: Thunder Bay 778.90 35.00 July 2023 dn 9.40
Basis: Vancouver 803.90 60.00 July 2023 dn 9.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for previous day.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, 204-414-9084)a

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1020.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May 1010.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 940.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 882.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 1030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
May 1020.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 950.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 892.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 950.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 810.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4250.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 241.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.434)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 242,389 lots, or 1.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 5,163 5,172 5,044 5,044 5,175 5,109 -66 6,292 14,684
Jul-23 5,066 5,077 4,948 4,957 5,086 5,006 -80 170,943 153,252
Sep-23 5,036 5,045 4,917 4,923 5,051 4,970 -81 41,370 27,400
Nov-23 5,012 5,022 4,894 4,895 5,026 4,940 -86 22,181 32,163
Jan-24 5,005 5,008 4,886 4,887 5,021 4,924 -97 1,094 4,150
Mar-24 4,994 4,994 4,872 4,880 5,001 4,909 -92 509 4,702
Corn
Turnover: 1,036,039 lots, or 28.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 2,717 2,717 2,667 2,685 2,719 2,690 -29 50,526 82,006
Jul-23 2,729 2,736 2,690 2,710 2,740 2,713 -27 703,476 859,076
Sep-23 2,720 2,723 2,680 2,699 2,727 2,701 -26 111,866 263,735
Nov-23 2,679 2,688 2,650 2,671 2,685 2,669 -16 129,825 259,845
Jan-24 2,674 2,680 2,653 2,667 2,679 2,667 -12 11,120 35,771
Mar-24 2,667 2,674 2,647 2,655 2,672 2,659 -13 29,226 27,277
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,839,037 lots, or 63.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 3,624 3,664 3,590 3,619 3,681 3,620 -61 203,745 241,151
Jul-23 3,452 3,456 3,368 3,409 3,497 3,407 -90 181,715 366,121
Aug-23 3,496 3,503 3,416 3,449 3,549 3,454 -95 55,549 204,424
Sep-23 3,489 3,494 3,409 3,445 3,533 3,448 -85 1,210,061 1,372,077
Nov-23 3,483 3,489 3,400 3,441 3,532 3,437 -95 56,942 127,739
Dec-23 3,492 3,496 3,410 3,453 3,539 3,452 -87 31,721 51,263
Jan-24 3,468 3,476 3,396 3,423 3,502 3,428 -74 89,819 158,064
Mar-24 3,422 3,428 3,358 3,387 3,453 3,387 -66 9,485 23,954
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,040,246 lots, or 76.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 7,826 7,892 7,752 7,790 7,872 7,820 -52 87,397 87,067
Jun-23 7,650 7,696 7,556 7,582 7,692 7,626 -66 31,824 101,029
Jul-23 7,516 7,540 7,406 7,438 7,552 7,478 -74 29,674 108,122
Aug-23 7,366 7,418 7,270 7,300 7,436 7,350 -86 15,804 73,226
Sep-23 7,340 7,366 7,208 7,232 7,388 7,292 -96 842,125 415,400
Oct-23 7,308 7,378 7,194 7,212 7,364 7,276 -88 8,829 40,580
Nov-23 7,328 7,338 7,184 7,210 7,344 7,266 -78 14,340 29,443
Dec-23 7,274 7,318 7,178 7,198 7,326 7,260 -66 985 7,487
Jan-24 7,280 7,314 7,160 7,184 7,306 7,232 -74 9,203 10,900
Feb-24 7,282 7,298 7,174 7,174 7,312 7,250 -62 15 499
Mar-24 7,266 7,280 7,156 7,166 7,274 7,188 -86 42 824
Apr-24 7,154 7,172 7,132 7,142 7,168 7,152 -16 8 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 889,982 lots, or 69.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-23 8,156 8,160 8,000 8,026 8,198 8,080 -118 84,642 82,532
Jul-23 7,922 7,962 7,766 7,796 8,006 7,868 -138 34,427 124,772
Aug-23 7,890 7,938 7,746 7,760 7,988 7,844 -144 9,891 89,646
Sep-23 7,882 7,928 7,714 7,744 7,968 7,822 -146 731,205 472,602
Nov-23 7,866 7,914 7,708 7,720 7,960 7,818 -142 12,674 51,001
Dec-23 7,910 7,962 7,778 7,786 8,008 7,882 -126 6,075 33,924
Jan-24 7,886 7,934 7,752 7,764 7,966 7,854 -112 9,278 21,364
Mar-24 7,852 7,902 7,740 7,740 7,908 7,824 -84 1,790 10,606
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322